Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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January 2022 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

The Hit To The Economy From Omicron Will Be Fleeting....But Falling Real Incomes Will Constrain The Recovery

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Chartbook

Global Datanote: 20-day Exports, Korea, January

In one line: Korea signals a global export slowdown in January

Craig BothamGlobal, Datanotes

21 Jan 2022 Are Rising Commodity Prices a Blessing or Curse for LatAm

The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts. Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag. A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America, Economic Monitor

21 Jan 2022 Housing Demand is Set to Weaken as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change. Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power. The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Economic Monitor

21 Jan 2022 Omicron Poses Short-Term Worries, but BI Normalisation is Coming

Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts... ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron. Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia, Economic Monitor

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022. Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3. We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Economic Monitor

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region. External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large. Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+, Economic Monitor, Asia Key Issues

21 Jan 2022 House Price Growth to Slow in 2022 as Mortgage Rates Rise

House price growth remained strong in Q4, despite the return of the SDLT threshold to £125K at the end of Q3. Timely indicators, however, suggest Omicron weighed on buyer demand at the end of the year, and in January. Higher mortgage rates and falling real incomes will cause house price growth to decelerate this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Economic Monitor

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December 2021

In one line: The start of a gradual slowdown for house price growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K., Datanotes

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, December

In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S., Datanotes

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: All set for a big drop in Q1, but the core will rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Datanotes

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, January 2022

In one line: Industrial production should rebound soon; services are softening.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone, Datanotes

Global Datanote: Loan Prime Rate, China, January

In one line: Softening the blow, not priming the pump

Craig BothamGlobal, Datanotes

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+, Datanotes

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