In one line: Investor sentiment is still rising; a dovish plunge in EZ labour cost growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: The BoJ scraps negative rates and YCC policies in March, hinting at no further tightening unless inflation spikes.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Lower rates still supporting for homebuilders
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Falling imports are still lifting EZ net trade in goods.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Next couple of months’ data will be more noise than signal.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Malaysian export growth slumps in February on seasonal effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Homebase points to solid March job growth, but likely slower than in February…
- Either way, the outlook for the second quarter is materially weaker; hirings down, firings up.
- Housing construction is set to rise as homebuilders gain market share; is the multi-family slump over?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Chile’s economy had a poor end to 2023, due to still-high interest rates and uneven consumer demand…
- …But the big picture is of an economy gradually gathering speed, and the outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will likely continue this year, accompanied by healthy external accounts.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Singaporean exports fell into the red in February; blame Lunar New Year seasonal distortions...
- ...Export growth will likely resume its recovery path, albeit at a more gradual pace for most of H1.
- Malaysian export growth slowed in February, dragged down by a sharp drop in re-exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
- ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
- Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The MPC will need to cut rates rapidly if the weak Report on Jobs survey is right about pay growth.
- The RoJ reliably shows the direction of pay but is less good at measuring the precise growth rate.
- Other—also reliable—surveys are stronger; pay is slowing, but not as much as the RoJ indicates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Still consistent with resilient growth in consumption, for now
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: A one-off, or is the lumpy slide in non-oil imports finally over?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+