In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Manufacturing still looks fragile despite this improvement.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line:Disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4, so the MPC will definitely cut rates in February.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
China's official GDP hits 2024 target thanks to Q4 stimulus sugar rush, but domestic demand is still lagging output growth
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Every major city in Taiwan is now “impossibly unaffordable”; the housing bubble is expanding.
- The central bank is trying to dampen demand, but overly aggressive policies may create a crisis...
- …The opposite, however, would increase the risk of a more severe housing-price crash down the line.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Upside risks are building for EZ energy inflation in January due to rising oil prices and one-off effects.
- Our Q1 core inflation forecasts are lower than the ECB’s, but we’re in line on the headline.
- We still see three more 25bp rate cuts this year, but risks are now tilted towards two.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We wobbled on our call for three rate cuts this year, but soft growth keeps us on track.
- GDP is now trending down slightly, and disappointing retail sales raise the risk of a small GDP fall in Q4.
- Payrolls next week will show whether employment really tanked in December, as the PMI signalled.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Spending still very strong, but likely to soften.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: EZ goods trade was still a drag on growth in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The trade deficit narrows in November but remains wide; import prices point to firming goods inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Budget uncertainty, tax hikes and Mr. Trump's tariff threats continue to weigh on growth
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House price inflation of 5% in 2025 according to the RICS.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Core inflation is sticky around 3%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
