No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Or bust banks
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- The Fed is watching and waiting to see how much damage will be done by tightening credit…
- …We expect a substantial hit, but the Fed is still likely to hike again in May, and won’t be easing by July.
- New home sales likely rose again in February, but prices are falling as developers try to cut inventory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Brazil — The fiscal framework saga continues
- Colombia — Uncertainty on all fronts
- Peru — The crisis has eased, but it is not over
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Ms. Lagarde confirms that the ECB is keeping an
open mind on the path of interest rates in Q2.
- The decision to hike in May will be an easy one, if the
ECB sticks to its narrow focus on core inflation…
- …But a hike will be less clear-cut if the central bank is
now looking at a broader set of indicators.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- February's pick-up in CPI inflation was driven partly by
a jump in food prices, linked to bad weather in Europe...
- ...The MPC's measure of core services CPI inflation
rose too, but was lower than it expected last month.
- The near-term outlook for CPI inflation has improved
since the MPC last met, thanks to lower energy prices.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- India Is Trying To Get Over The Q4 Speed Bump.....The China Reopening Has Been Trivial, So Far
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Producers are slowing price rises in the face of weak demand.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)Global
- In one line: The downturn is gathering momentum.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- U.S. - The Banking Crisis is Deflationary, but the Fed Likely will Hike Today
- EUROZONE - The SNB will Stay the Course, Despite Credit Suisse Troubles
- U.K. - Downside Data Surprises Point to a No-Change MPC Decision This Week
- CHINA+ - China’s Credit Demand is Narrowly Based at this Stage of Recovery
- EM ASIA - BI’s Rose-Tinted 2023 Growth Outlook Still Needs a Reality Check
- LATAM - Chile’s Recovery will Continue, Despite the GDP Q4 Noise
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global
- We expect a 25bp rate hike today, and the Fed likely will raise its terminal rate forecast by at least 25bp.
- Chair Powell will acknowledge banking risks, but argue that the threat is contained.
- The Fed’s new forecast will show faster growth and higher inflation, explaining the higher rate profile.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- LatAm markets have shrugged off the banking crisis, thanks to strict capital and liquidity requirements.
- An elevated carry has also helped to withstand the hit, but tighter financing conditions are a big threat.
- Most central banks will ease their tone and open the door to rate cuts, if domestic conditions allows.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Macron’s government survived a confidence vote over pension reform; now the real battle begins.
- We still think French GDP will fall slightly in the first quarter; early hard data are backing us up.
- We’re lowering our forecast for Q2 growth in France, by 0.1pp to 0.3%, reflecting further strike action.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The OBR's productivity growth forecast still is too upbeat; we think GDP in 27/28 will be 1.6% lower than it expects.
- While slower growth points to lower interest rates than the OBR assumes, borrowing would be higher on net.
- Plans for a fiscal consolidation of nearly 4% of GDP aren't credible, given past U-turns and the upcoming election.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
The Banking Crisis Is A Deflationary Event....Don't Be Distracted By The Fed's Balance Sheet
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Investor sentiment is rolling over; a mini-revival in EZ construction?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
