Pantheon Publications

5 June 2026 LatAm Monitor

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 June 2026

Still no signs of fragility in the bullet train that is Vietnamese trade
Real sales growth continues to track softer in Q2
Small inflation uptick, but still uncomfortably above the SBV's ceiling

Global Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, May 2026

In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, May 2026

In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week. 

4 June 2026 LatAm Monitor

4 June 2026 Eurozone Monitor What if the ECB had a higher inflation target?

• DM central banks are missing their inflation targets; the ECB seems most keen to rectify this.
• A higher inflation target would be no panacea for the ECB, faced with successive supply-side shocks.
• Our interest rate forecast is consistent with a real policy rate at zero by the middle of 2027.

4 June 2026 UK Monitor PMI review: slowing growth will limit the MPC to one rate hike

• PMI services responses between the flash and final release were the most optimistic in five months.
• Political noise likely drove revisions, and underlying growth is probably still slowing.
• But the PMI tends to exaggerate growth slowdowns when uncertainty is high.

UK Datanote: UK Money & Credit, April 2026

• In one line: Consumers and firms look solid in April even if some borrowing was front-running rate hikes.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 June 2026: May Korea inflation rise makes July hike likely

In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, April 2026

• In one line: Commodity-price boost to two-way trade is finally here.

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, May 2026

• In one line: Food drives the initial bounce-back.

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, May 2026

• In one line: Manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 June 2026

ASEAN manufacturing is finally starting to stabilise
Food drives the initial bounce-back in Indonesian inflation
Commodity-price boost to Indonesian two-way trade is finally here

May 2026- EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING INFLATION…

• …BUT HOW FAR WILL THE BANK GO?

May 2026 - Latin America Chartbook

LATAM’S DISINFLATION STORY IS BREAKING DOWN

• OIL, POLITICS AND FISCAL RISKS KEEP CENTRAL BANKS ON ALERT

3 June 2026 US Monitor The jump in April job openings will be erased by revisions

• The jump in April job openings was driven by a sector where the first estimate usually is revised significantly.
• Other measures of openings have continued to trend down; low quits imply a real wage squeeze is ahead.
• We doubt that the recent acceleration in corporate profits signals a sharp cyclical upswing.

3 June 2026 Global Monitor Korea's chip-export bonanza allows BoK to focus on inflation risks

• US - NFP preview: the die is weighted toward a downside surprise
• EUROZONE - Inflation shock will sting real income growth in France in 2026
• UK - Corporate failures remain low, but Iran war will boost distress slightly
• CHINA+ - Korea’s chip-export bonanza allows BoK to focus on inflation risks
• EM ASIA - Thailand’s latest consumer stimulus will reshape—not re-energise—2026
• LATAM - Brazil’s economy enjoys solid Q1, but inflation clouds the outlook

3 June 2026 LatAm Monitor El Niño adds new inflation risks to LatAm, but hit differs widely

• El Niño could complicate LatAm’s inflation outlook just as geopolitical risks keep energy prices elevated.
• Argentina stands to benefit, while Colombia faces the region’s largest inflation risk.
• Disruption to food, energy and logistics could widen macroeconomic divergences across the region.

3 June 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Ignore Indonesia's small April surplus; IDR support is finally here

• Indonesia’s small April trade surplus was due to seasonals; a C/A surplus in 2026 is now possible…
• …The big improvement in headline export growth was no fluke; the commodity lift will last till year-end.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast to 3.4%, but also lowered our 2027 call to 2.7%.

3 June 2026 China+ Monitor China's urban-renewal plan a gentle tonic, not a magic pill

• China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
• …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
• New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.