In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
ADP distracts more than it informs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Reduced confidence and tight financial conditions are drags.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Stamp duty changes halt house price inflation in March, but it will accelerate again.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Tariffs will keep manufacturing output falling for the forseeable future.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A new record low; another data point for ECB hawks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
- ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
- A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The euro area economy comes into ‘Liberation Day’ in a relatively good position.
- A 25% blanket tariff on EZ exports to the US would bring down our 2025 growth forecast by 0.4pp.
- EU retaliation could raise EZ core goods inflation, but it depends on the size and scope of import tariffs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We expect CPI inflation to decline to 2.7% in March, matching the MPC’s forecast.
- Petrol price falls will drag inflation down, while core price gains will remain firm.
- March is the calm before the storm of April price hikes, which should drive up headline inflation to 3.6%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
