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In one line: Better than expected but still a gloomy start to the year.
The Hit To The Economy From Omicron Will Be Fleeting....But Falling Real Incomes Will Constrain The Recovery
In one line: Korea signals a global export slowdown in January
Core inflation pressures ebb in Japan Korea signals an export slowdown in January
Don't lose sleep over Thailand's surprise deficit
The recovery in commodity prices should strengthen LatAm public finances and external accounts. Capex will also rise this year, if the commodity uptrend is sustained; political risk, however, is a drag. A sustained rebound in prices would also keep inflation high, complicating some central banks' plans.
The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change. Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power. The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?
Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts... ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron. Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.
Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022. Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3. We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.
Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region. External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large. Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.
House price growth remained strong in Q4, despite the return of the SDLT threshold to £125K at the end of Q3. Timely indicators, however, suggest Omicron weighed on buyer demand at the end of the year, and in January. Higher mortgage rates and falling real incomes will cause house price growth to decelerate this year.
In one line: The start of a gradual slowdown for house price growth.
In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low
In one line: Claims hit by Omicron; near-term outlook uncertain
In one line: All set for a big drop in Q1, but the core will rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.
In one line: Industrial production should rebound soon; services are softening.
In one line: Softening the blow, not priming the pump
External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects Bank lending rates follow the MLF down
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