Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Announcement

No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Or bust banks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

23 Mar 2023 US Monitor

  • The Fed is watching and waiting to see how much damage will be done by tightening credit…
  • …We expect a substantial hit, but the Fed is still likely to hike again in May, and won’t be easing by July.
  • New home sales likely rose again in February, but prices are falling as developers try to cut inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor

  • Brazil — The fiscal framework saga continues
  • Colombia — Uncertainty on all fronts
  • Peru — The crisis has eased, but it is not over

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Mar 2023 Eurozone Monitor

  • Ms. Lagarde confirms that the ECB is keeping an
    open mind on the path of interest rates in Q2.
  • The decision to hike in May will be an easy one, if the
    ECB sticks to its narrow focus on core inflation…
  • …But a hike will be less clear-cut if the central bank is
    now looking at a broader set of indicators.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 Mar 2023 UK Monitor

  • February's pick-up in CPI inflation was driven partly by
    a jump in food prices, linked to bad weather in Europe...
  • ...The MPC's measure of core services CPI inflation
    rose too, but was lower than it expected last month.
  • The near-term outlook for CPI inflation has improved
    since the MPC last met, thanks to lower energy prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

March 2023 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

  • India Is Trying To Get Over The Q4 Speed Bump.....The China Reopening Has Been Trivial, So Far

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March

  • In one line: Producers are slowing price rises in the face of weak demand.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

Global Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)Global

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Mar 2023 Global Monitor

  • U.S. - The Banking Crisis is Deflationary, but the Fed Likely will Hike Today
  • EUROZONE - The SNB will Stay the Course, Despite Credit Suisse Troubles 
  • U.K. - Downside Data Surprises Point to a No-Change MPC Decision This Week
  • CHINA+ - China’s Credit Demand is Narrowly Based at this Stage of Recovery 
  • EM ASIA - BI’s Rose-Tinted 2023 Growth Outlook Still Needs a Reality Check 
  • LATAM - Chile’s Recovery will Continue, Despite the GDP Q4 Noise

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global

22 Mar 2023 US Monitor The Fed is Set to Hike by 25bp, and to Raise its Terminal Rate Forecast

  • We expect a 25bp rate hike today, and the Fed likely will raise its terminal rate forecast by at least 25bp.
  • Chair Powell will acknowledge banking risks, but argue that the threat is contained.
  • The Fed’s new forecast will show faster growth and higher inflation, explaining the higher rate profile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor The Banking Crisis will Help LatAm Central Banks to Ease their Tone

  • LatAm markets have shrugged off the banking crisis, thanks to strict capital and liquidity requirements.
  • An elevated carry has also helped to withstand the hit, but tighter financing conditions are a big threat.
  • Most central banks will ease their tone and open the door to rate cuts, if domestic conditions allows.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Mar 2023 Eurozone Monitor Mr. Macron is Getting Ready to Face Off with the Street, Again

  • Mr. Macron’s government survived a confidence vote over pension reform; now the real battle begins.
  • We still think French GDP will fall slightly in the first quarter; early hard data are backing us up.
  • We’re lowering our forecast for Q2 growth in France, by 0.1pp to 0.3%, reflecting further strike action.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Mar 2023 China+ Monitor Synchronised Decline in Korean Exports Indicates Broad Weakness

  • Korean 20-day exports extended their decline in March, dragged down by weak global demand.
  • Export growth slowed to all of Korea’s major markets, indicating a broad slowdown.
  • Falling demand for work-at-home devices continues to hit the Korean electronics sector.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

22 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Public Borrowing will Stabilise at 4% of GDP in the Medium Term

  • The OBR's productivity growth forecast still is too upbeat; we think GDP in 27/28 will be 1.6% lower than it expects.
  • While slower growth points to lower interest rates than the OBR assumes, borrowing would be higher on net.
  • Plans for a fiscal consolidation of nearly 4% of GDP aren't credible, given past U-turns and the upcoming election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February

A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

March 2023 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Banking Crisis Is A Deflationary Event....Don't Be Distracted By The Fed's Balance Sheet

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

EZ Datanote: Construction Output & ZEW, EZ/Germany

In one line: Investor sentiment is rolling over; a mini-revival in EZ construction?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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