Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

15 Oct 2021 Retail Sales Growth Likely Dipped in September, as Delta Began to Fade

  • Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
  • …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
  • Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Oct 2021 Has the CPI Accident Waiting to Happen, Just Happened?

  • September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
  • ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
  • Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2021 September's Core CPI Likely Rose Modestly, but Ongoing Risks Abound

  • We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
  • Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
  • The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Oct 2021 Delta Squeezed Payrolls in September, Again

  • September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
  • Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
  • Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, September 2021

  • In one line: Better than the headlines, but still Delta-constrained.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2021 Consumers are Awash with Cash, so why has Credit Growth Rebounded

  • Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
  • ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
  • Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S ADP Employment, September 2021

  • In one line: Much better than August, but not a consistently reliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Oct 2021 The Energy Price Hit Continues, but it will not Kill Consumption

  • Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
  • ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
  • The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services, September 2021

  • In one line: Activity strong, despite Delta; supply pressures still severe.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Oct 2021 Auto Sales Dragged Down Q3 Consumption; Smaller Hit in Q4

  • The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
  • Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
  • New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Oct 2021 Congress has a Long Way to Go, but the BIF and BBB will Pass

  • Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
  • Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
  • Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2021

  • In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Oct 2021 Is China's Manufacturing Weakness Hitting the U.S.

  • China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
  • Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
  • The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence