Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

2 Dec 2022 US Monitor Whatever Happened to October Payrolls, Slower Gains are Coming

The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...

...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.

A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI/Pending Home Sales

Collapse in Chicago PMI is not definitive evidence of anything; pending home sales nearing a floor

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Weak, but the ISM Remains Above Recession Levels

Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.

Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?

Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November

Don't worry about the dip in confidence; consumption still on track for a strong fourth quarter.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Nov 2022 US Monitor ADP is not Reliable; We're Sticking to our 250K Payroll Forecast

 ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.

Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.

The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 Nov 2022 US Monitor Chainstore Sales Growth is Slowing

 Chain store sales growth is slowing; adverse base effects are only part of the story...

...Discount stores appear to be suffering as low- income households are squeezed.

Home prices are falling, probably at an accelerating rate, and consumers are glum.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Nov 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by Strong-Looking Homes Sales and Orders

Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading

Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.

The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, November

The hawk/dove battle lines for the next few meetings are becoming clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, October

Jump in sales impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can't be sustained

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Nov 2022 US Monitor Capex Outperformed in Q3, but the Outlook is Deteriorating Rapidly

  • Business capital spending performed surprisingly well in Q3, but the outlook is deteriorating rapidly.
  • Brace for a potential upside shock in today’s job claims numbers; the trend is turning.
  • New home sales cannot fall forever but the near-term downside risk is clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Nov 2022 US Monitor Layoffs are set to Rise, Pointing to Slower Payroll Growth Next Year

  • Layoff announcements are not a reliable guide to jobless claims in the short term...
  • ...But we cannot ignore the upward trend in recent months; claims likely will follow.
  • Regional Fed surveys point to a sharp slowdown in capital spending, but it is not in the hard data yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Inflation Debate is Two-Sided, but we're Sticking to Optimism

  • Pushbacks to our optimistic inflation view focus on hot nominal demand and rapid wage gains…
  • …But they ignore the virtuous circle from margin compression to expectations to wages.
  • No one seems to think productivity growth will come 
    to the rescue; but it did in the late 90s.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Nov 2022 US Monitor Can the Economy Really Grow by 4%+ in the Fourth Quarter?

  • Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
  • Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
  • Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence