Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, April

A solid start to Q2; no sign of any hit from energy and food prices

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 May 2022 Homebase Data Suggest May Payrolls Rose by About 250K

The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.

Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.

Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

May 2022 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

  • Endless 50s Are Not Baked-In As Inflation Falls....And Recession Risk Is Overstated

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 May 2022 The Dip in April PPI Margins is a Hint of Better Inflation News Ahead

Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.

Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.

Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, April

Disappointing core, but details are better than the 0.6% print

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May Don't Fret Over Falling Savings, People have Trillions in Excess Cash

 The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...

...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.

The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, April

Payrolls strong but moderating; more evidence of slowing wage gains

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 May 2022 Payroll Gains Likely Moderated in April, a War Hit or a Slowing Trend

We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...

...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.

AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence