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Strong across the board, except participation, unfortunately
The core PCE deflator spike looks like a fluke, we hope
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
GDP hit by inventories, but final demand softened and will be weaker in Q3
More important politically then economically
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
Flattered by higher oil prices, but expect Q2 GDP forecasts to move up nonetheless
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
Housing slump is deepening, fast; inflation expectations dip a bit
The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.
Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.
Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.
Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.
The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.
Bottom reached in activity? Supply chain measures better than pre-Covid
Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...
Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.
Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.
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