Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US Jobless Claims / Philly Fed

Not definitive, but consistent with the idea that the trend is starting to rise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, April

Recovery in housing construction running out of steam.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

17 May 2024 US Monitor A real revival in the manufacturing sector still looks some way off

  • The manufacturing sector continues to disappoint and a sustained recovery still looks some way off. 
  • April's pick-up in import prices likely will have a near-zero impact on core goods CPI inflation.
  • The failure of housing starts and claims fully to reverse recent adverse shifts suggest interest rates are too high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, April

A broad-based slowdown, pointing to a 0.24% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

16 May 2024 US Monitor Broad-based disinflation in April preserves Q3 rate cut chances

  • Underlying services inflation slowed in April; momentum in rents and auto insurance prices will fade. 
  • The CPI and PPI data suggest the core PCE deflator rose by 0.23%, the smallest increase since December.
  • April's retail sales report supports the case for a slowdown in consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Survey, April

An improvement, but small businesses are still under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

15 May 2024 US Monitor No need for a post-PPI overhaul of April CPI and PCE forecasts

  • We are merely nudging up our forecast for the April core CPI to 0.37%, from 0.35%, following the PPI data.
  • Short-term movements in many equivalent PPI and CPI components are weakly correlated.
  • We also look today for a 0.4% rise in total retail sales, consistent with near-zero real consumption growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

14 May 2024 US Monitor April PPI data to show stable margins and slowing services price rises

  • The consensus forecast for a 0.2% rise in the April core PPI is well-grounded, but big surprises are common.
  • Tight credit is weighing heavily on small businesses; we expect another dip in the NFIB survey in April.
  • NY Fed data suggest consumers are becoming more worried about job losses, pointing to higher layoffs.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

13 May 2024 US Monitor The birth/death model is set to make smaller payroll contributions, soon

  • The birth/death model is likely to make smaller contributions to payroll growth across spring and summer.
  • The wave of pandemic-inspired startups is yet to fade from the model, but the turning point is imminent.
  • Consumers are becoming increasingly worried about the labor market; spending growth will slow.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

10 May 2024 US Monitor The spike in jobless claims is partly noise, but an upward trend is due

  • Jobless claims likely will drop this week, but the sudden spike week is a warning sign of trouble ahead.
  • Consumers’ confidence likely has peaked, but changes to the Michigan survey will overstate any softening.
  • The new method likely will lift the survey's five-to-10-year inflation expectations measure, slightly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

9 May 2024 US Monitor Initial claims better at flagging labor market upturns than downturns

  • We see a sharp downturn in payrolls soon, despite the rock-bottom level of initial jobless claims.
  • Claims tend to lead payrolls during an upturn, but deteriorate alongside payrolls during a downturn.
  • Revisions to payrolls are uncorrelated with the initial response rate; April's weak initial print will survive.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

8 May 2024 US Monitor Health insurance CPI inflation likely fell in April and won't flare up again

  • CPI health insurance prices are set to slow sharply from April, thanks to methodological changes.
  • Prices should flatline from April to September, but the 1½% trend in the PCE measure will continue.
  • MBS data on mortgage applications likely nudged up last week, but from a very low base.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

7 May 2024 US Monitor The Fed's SLOOS shows monetary policy still is restrictive, and hurting

  • Banks are continuing to tighten credit availability for business and consumers.
  • The real cost of bank loans to small businesses is approaching 8%; no wonder they are cutting costs.
  • The lag between banks' willingness to extend consumer credit and lending flows is long; a slowdown lies ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 May 2024 US Monitor April's payrolls likely mark the start of a shift to much weaker trend

  • April's slowdown in payrolls looks like real weakness; revisions likely will push the numbers down further.
  • Near-zero growth in payrolls lies ahead if the NFIB survey retains its status as the best leading indicator.
  • The ISM services survey has joined the growing list of surveys showing that labor demand is weakening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, April 27

An uptrend in initial claims is probably still in the pipeline. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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