Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Announcement

No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Or bust banks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

23 Mar 2023 US Monitor

  • The Fed is watching and waiting to see how much damage will be done by tightening credit…
  • …We expect a substantial hit, but the Fed is still likely to hike again in May, and won’t be easing by July.
  • New home sales likely rose again in February, but prices are falling as developers try to cut inventory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Mar 2023 US Monitor The Fed is Set to Hike by 25bp, and to Raise its Terminal Rate Forecast

  • We expect a 25bp rate hike today, and the Fed likely will raise its terminal rate forecast by at least 25bp.
  • Chair Powell will acknowledge banking risks, but argue that the threat is contained.
  • The Fed’s new forecast will show faster growth and higher inflation, explaining the higher rate profile.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, February

A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

March 2023 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

The Banking Crisis Is A Deflationary Event....Don't Be Distracted By The Fed's Balance Sheet

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Mar 2023 US Monitor Homebase Signals a Solid 250K Increase in March Payrolls

  • Homebase data suggest March payrolls will rise by about 250K; too fast for the Fed.
  • Slower gains are coming in the second quarter as weather boosts fade and credit tightens.
  • Existing home sales likely soared in February, but the rebound does not mark a sustained recovery.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, March

Sentiment dragged lower by banking chaos; inflation expectations continue to fall.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, February

Upside surprise in manufacturing output is misleading; the near-term outlook remains grim.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

20 Mar 2023 US Monitor Is the Fed Ready to Recognize that the Banking Crisis is Deflationary?

  • The banking crisis will trigger a huge expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, but banks will not lend more.
  • Credit standards are likely to tighten further; businesses will feel the squeeze most.
  • Manufacturing is in trouble, despite recent gains in output; will the China rebound come to the rescue?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Mar 2023 US Monitor A Single Spike in Housing Starts does not Change the big, bad Picture

  • The leap in January housing starts is noise, not signal; a real recovery is some way off.
  • February manufacturing output likely reversed about half the January leap, but the trend is falling.
  • Consumers’ inflation expectations look primed to fall in the wake of slowing food and energy inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims/Philadelphia Fed, March

Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, February

Don't be fooled by the February bounce; a sustained recovery in housing construction is still a long way off.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

16 Mar 2023 US Monitor The Fed can Pass in March; No one Doubts their Inflation Determination

  • If the Credit Suisse meltdown doesn’t scare the Fed, the drop in Treasury liquidity should.
  • The potential cost of skipping a rate hike next week is much less than the cost of damaging the system.
  • Q1 consumption looks to be headed for a 2% gain; the downshift in core PPI inflation is back on track.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NAHB Homebuilder Survey, March

The recovery in the NAHB index will soon hit the buffers.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI/Empire State Survey

PPI disinflation is back on track; no manufacturing bounce from China, yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, February

Reversal of January spike in control sales delayed, not cancelled.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

15 Mar 2023 US Monitor The Fed is Likely to Hike Next Week, Markets Permitting

  • The disappointing February core CPI number and calmer markets mean the Fed can hike next week…
  • …Core services inflation remains too high and sticky for the Fed’s comfort.
  • Today’s retail sales data likely will be soft, but won’t reverse the January spike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, February

Not good enough to stop the Fed hiking next week, provided markets are calm

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, February

Fall in stock prices to snuff out modest rebound in NFIB.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

14 Mar 2023 US Monitor The Fed's Rates Decision Hinges on Markets First, CPI Second

  • The Fed’s first responsibility is financial stability, but if that is assured, their key worry right now is inflation...
  • ...If markets are calm over the next week, a 25bp rate hike is still in the cards.
  • The February core CPI data should be better than January’s numbers, but risks abound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence