- In one line: Falling Covid cases offset by higher energy prices?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Delta is boosting sales of goods; what’s happening to services?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Retail sales growth likely slowed in September, but that's not necessarily bad news…
- …The decline in Covid cases likely pushed up spending on non-retail services, at the expense of goods.
- Consumers' sentiment likely has improved this month, but the surge in energy prices is a wild card.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September's core CPI was flattered by unsustainable declines in airline fares, lodging and used car prices...
- ...But rents rose at the fastest pace in 15 years, so all eyes now will be on the October report.
- Stop Press: FOMC minutes confirm tapering to be announced at the November meeting.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: The core is not as good as it looks.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We expect a modest 0.2% increase in September's core CPI, but the net risk is to the upside.
- Used auto prices have rebounded at auction, and we're still waiting for rents to accelerate.
- The record quits rate in August signals that the Delta wave has not deterred job-switchers.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- September job gains fell short of the pace implied by Homebase, but October likely will be much better.
- Wage pressures continue to build, but labor supply should rebound strongly in Q4.
- Job openings likely hit yet another record high in August, but the Delta effect is uncertain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Better than the headlines, but still Delta-constrained.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
- It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
- As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
- ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
- Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Much better than August, but not a consistently reliable guide to payrolls.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Higher energy prices will squeeze low-income house- holds, but won't kill the overall consumer recovery.
- ADP likely will report about 400K private jobs in Sep- tember; the official data should be a bit better.
- The rebound in mortgage applications continues; home sales will rise in Q4.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Activity strong, despite Delta; supply pressures still severe.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The plunge in new vehicle sales continues, but the incremental drop in Q4 will be smaller than in Q3.
- Inventory is rock-bottom, and new vehicle prices are soaring, but the rate of increase has to slow.
- New housing construction has peaked, for now, but a rebound in non-residential activity is set to start soon.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Shutdown averted, but action on the debt ceiling, infrastructure and social spending will take a while.
- Households are still adding to their huge pile of sav- ings; post-pandemic firepower is enormous.
- Homebase data signal a solid increase in payrolls; the St. Louis Fed model tracks only household jobs.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Delta squeezed consumption, but didn’t kill it.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- China's manufacturing slowdown is not helpful to the U.S., but it is a long way from a hammer-blow.
- Consumers' spending likely rose a bit in August, but September won't be great; Q4 should be much better.
- The core PCE spike is over, but airline fares will lift the August reading relative to the core CPI.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
