- The housing story in the second half of last year, with demand rising, and inventory low, is about to change.
- Higher mortgage rates will reduce the number of potential buyers, and sellers will have less power.
- The surge in jobless claims last week likely reflects the Omicron hit; it will be short, but just how short?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: The H2 sales surge is over, but inventory at a new record low
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Claims hit by Omicron; near-term outlook uncertain
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The preliminary Homebase data for December signal falling payrolls, even allowing for upward revisions.
- The Philly Fed index likely will follow the plunge in the Empire State, hit by the Omicron wave.
- Jobless claims likely rose for a third straight week, thanks to the seasonals, which will soon reverse.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Higher rates beginning to impinge on housing activity?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Omicron hits the present; expectations little changed.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be followed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Mildly disappointing, but the underlying recovery continues
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed Is Ignoring Omicron...Expect The First Hike In March, And Perhaps Four In 2022
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Core PPI inflation has peaked; claims hit by seasonal problems.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
- China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
- Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: The peak is close, but the speed of the coming downshift is uncertain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Upside risk to the December core CPI, mostly from vehicle prices, airline fares, and hotel room rates.
- Headline inflation likely rose above 7%, but this should be the peak.
- Small firms sentiment is yet to reflect the Omicron hit, or the weakening in the stock market.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
In one line: Labor market still tight, but not tightening further.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The relative softness in December payrolls is hard to explain, but the labor market is still tightening.
- Sub-4% unemployment is enough to convince most FOMC members than an early rate hike is needed.
- We expect the first hike in March, with an increasing chance of three further hikes this year.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
