Samuel Tombs has focused on the U.K. economy since 2009. Prior to joining Pantheon, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics, leading the team which topped the 2014 Sunday Times' poll of forecasters. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK.
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Samuel Tombs has a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics, leading the team which topped the 2014 Sunday Times' poll of forecasters. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists’ prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK.
At Pantheon, Samuel’s research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices.
Throughout 2018, Bloomberg has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters out of pool of 35 economists. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus.
Samuel’s work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios.
Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices.
Recent key calls include:
2018 – Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC’s initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May.
2017 – Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling’s depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.
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