Pantheon Macroeconomics - Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

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Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Ian Shepherdson’s Biography Connect with Ian Shepherdson on Twitter Connect with Ian Shepherdson on LinkedIn

Ian Shepherdson Pantheon Macroeconomics

Ian Shepherdson

Founder & Chief U.S. Economist

Ian Shepherdson’s mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 25 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

His ability to make robust, non-consensus calls and to defend his views with hard analysis has earned him a consistent following in the markets and plaudits from the media over many years. Dr. Shepherdson has been lauded in the New York Times as "consistently right", and he is a double winner of the Wall Street Journal’s annual U.S. economic forecasting competition.

Dr. Shepherdson has consistently been ahead of the pack in predicting major events in the U.S. economy:

2017 – Forecast that GDP growth would increase as the Fed began to raise rates, because the signal of economic normalization would lift business sentiment, offsetting the cashflow hit from higher interest costs.

2015/16 – Argued that forecasts of recession were mistaken, because the weakness of manufacturing was a specific consequence of the plunge in oil prices, which would not transmit to the broader economy.

2012 – Predicted that the Fed would undertake a third round of quantitative easing, but that it was unnecessary and would not drive growth up to the pre-crash pace.

2010 – Argued that the recovery from the crash of 2008 would be very slow, despite zero interest rates, with the output gap likely not closing for a decade or more.

2005 – One of the first analysts to predict that a crash in the U.S. housing market would drive the economy into recession.

2003 – Warned that the Fed would mistakenly adopt ultra-accommodative policy after the invasion of Iraq, and that this policy would be maintained for too long, eventually leading to inflation pressure.

His main current concern is that investors hoping for lower interest rates are underestimating the extent to which the tightening labor market is a real constraint on the Fed, despite policymakers’ abandonment of their previous plans to raise rates. The risk that the Fed will have to tighten again, after a long pause, is very real.

Before establishing Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2012, Ian Shepherdson was the Chief U.S. Economist for High Frequency Economics. From 1996 to 1998 he was the Chief Economist, U.S.A., for HSBC, based in New York. From 1990 through 1996 Ian was based in London, latterly as the Chief U.K. Economist for HSBC.

Ian earned a PhD in Economics and a BSc in Banking and Finance from Loughborough University.

  • Ian Shepherdson

    Ian Shepherdson

    Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers. Find out more

  • Andres Abadia

    Andres Abadia

    Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX. Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets. Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist. Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia. Find out more

  • Claus Vistesen

    Claus Vistesen

    Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull. Find out more

  • Samuel Tombs

    Samuel Tombs

    Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election. Find out more

  • Freya Beamish

    Freya Beamish

    Freya Beamish produces the Asia service at Pantheon. She has several years of experience in covering the global economy, with a particular focus on China, Japan and Korea. Previously, she worked at Lombard Street Research (now TS Lombard), where she delivered research on Asia and the Global economy for over five years, latterly as the manager of the Macroeconomics group. Find out more

  • Miguel Chanco

    Miguel Chanco

    Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group. Find out more

Consistently Right

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