- In one line: Solid start to the year, but risks loom.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico cut rates again, but its tone was more cautious due to the recent uptick in Mexico’s inflation.
- Economic activity is weak, and inflation is within the target range, supporting the case for further easing.
- Argentina’s inflation slowed sharply in April, defying expectations after the FX liberalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Retail finishes Q1 strongly, but headwinds still limit momentum.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Banxico delivered another unanimous 50bp cut, to 8.50%, and pointed to more easing ahead.
- Brazil’s resilient consumption masks mounting pressures from inflation and weak services…
- …Tighter financial conditions are also a drag, but retail and labour data offer cautious optimism.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Receding risk and foreign inflows
- Mexico — Rebounding, but volatility set to continue
- Chile — Boosted by tariff truce and domestic tailwinds
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm will see muted benefit from the tariff rollback, as global demand and prices remain under pressure.
- The temporary truce reduces uncertainty but does not reverse regional capex and confidence headwinds.
- Chile’s disinflation is gaining traction, offering room for further monetary policy normalisation in H2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s headline inflation is stable, but services and food prices signal still-sticky underlying pressures.
- The COPOM will hold rates steady as inflation risks linger, amid strong demand and volatile food costs.
- Colombia’s inflation accelerated in April, challenging BanRep’s easing plans and credibility.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation steady in April, but underlying pressures persist, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: BCRP resumes easing, citing stable inflation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Headline and core inflation in Mexico rose in April, driven mainly by seasonal services price rises…
- …But underlying trends are contained and demand remains subdued, allowing Banxico to cut this week.
- Peru’s BCRP cut rates to 4.50% and signalled a shift towards neutral, as inflation is well anchored, for now.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Underlying pressures remain in check, despite a bad start to Q2.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes, and the near-term outlook remains benign.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: COPOM slows pace; signals prolonged hold on rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The COPOM signalled a pause to rate hikes amid persistent inflation and emerging economic cooling.
- Balanced inflation risks and global uncertainty drive the BCB’s flexible, data-dependent approach.
- We see the end of the tightening cycle, with potential rate cuts delayed until late Q4 or early 2026.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid end to Q1, but downside risks prevail.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazilian Real — Stability tested as external risks mount
- Mexican Peso — Rallying on trade relief, but…
- Chilean Peso — Buoyed by copper and strong real data
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- BCCh held the policy rate at 5.0%, as external risks remain elevated and inflation is volatile.
- Resilient growth masks deeper job-market weaknesses, limiting the scope for near-term easing.
- Commodity-price declines highlight Chile’s vulnerability to shifting global trade dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Q1 ends on a strong note, but growth set to slow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s central bank resumes its cautious easing cycle amid fragile growth and persistent inflation risks.
- BanRep balances disinflation momentum with fiscal slippage and intensifying external noise.
- Uncoordinated policy signals undermine credibility as Colombia faces deteriorating fundamentals.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprise rate cut signals cautious support for the recovery.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
