Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

23 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor

  • Brazil — The fiscal framework saga continues
  • Colombia — Uncertainty on all fronts
  • Peru — The crisis has eased, but it is not over

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor The Banking Crisis will Help LatAm Central Banks to Ease their Tone

  • LatAm markets have shrugged off the banking crisis, thanks to strict capital and liquidity requirements.
  • An elevated carry has also helped to withstand the hit, but tighter financing conditions are a big threat.
  • Most central banks will ease their tone and open the door to rate cuts, if domestic conditions allows.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

21 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Chile's Recovery will Continue, Despite the GDP Q4 Noise

  • Chile’s Q4 GDP report confirmed that the economy suffered a nasty recession during most of 2022...
  • ...But the big picture is of an economy gradually turning the corner, and the near-term outlook is upbeat.
  • The recovery will continue this year, along with the gradual correction in the current account deficit.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

20 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Brazil's Labour Market Slack will Continue to Build in Q2

  • Demand for labour continues to wane in Brazil, adding pressure on the COPOM to cut rates...
  • ...But fiscal uncertainty needs to be tackled first, to allow policymakers to adopt a dovish tone.
  • Protests in Peru brought the economy to its knees in January, but the uptrend will resume soon. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Colombia's Economy in its Labyrinth; Petro's Populism is Hurting

  • Retail sales in Colombia started the year slightly better than expected, but the downtrend continues.
  • Tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty are also keeping manufacturing under strain.
  • Mr. Petro’s reform plans will make investors uneasy; we hope Congress will dial back his populist scheme.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor The SVB Collapse Adds to Political Noise

  • Brazil — All eyes on the fiscal framework
  • Mexico — Stable, despite the U.S. banking crisis
  • Argentina — Global risk drives a sell-off

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

15 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Mexican Industrial Production Remains Resilient, but Risks Abound

  • Mexican industrial production was resilient in January, helped mainly by a leap in manufacturing…
  • …But tighter financial conditions, hurting business capex, and a choppy external backdrop are threats.
  • The recovery in construction stalled in January, but this followed an impressive performance in Q4.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, January, 2023

  • In one line: A decent start to the year, but high interest rates remain a threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

14 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Chile's Boric One Year on; a Bumpy Presidency, but the Outlook is Upbeat

  • LatAm markets start the week under pressure due to the SVB news, but this won’t be Lehman reloaded.
  • Chile’s President Boric delivers his second major cabinet reshuffle since taking office a year ago…
  • …Mr. Boric will have to embrace orthodoxy to persuade lawmakers to pass his economic/social agenda.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor The COPOM and the BCRP are Set to Continue Their Balancing Act

  • Disinflation is underway in Brazil, and the near term remains benign, despite elevated political noise.
  • The introduction of a responsible fiscal framework this month will open the door for rate cuts during H2.
  • Peru’s BCRP hasn’t been distracted by the benign inflation picture in February; caution will prevail in Q2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

Inflation IPCA, Brazil, February, 2023

  • In one line: Disinflation underway, despite increased fiscal risks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, 2023

  • In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term, due to high uncertainty.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Inflation in Mexico and Chile is Finally Coming Back Down to Earth

  • Inflation in Mexico and Chile surprised to the down- side in February, giving policymakers leeway.
  • The strong MXN and CLP appreciation recently will add to the downward pressure on goods prices.
  • The subdued medium-term picture will persuade policymakers to cut interest rates during H2.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

March 2023 - Latin America Chartbook

  • Growth Stutters But Core Inflation Remains Sticky....It Will Fall, But Central Banks Will Keep Rates On Hold In H1

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Domestic Political Noise Persists

  • Mexican Peso — The rebound continues
  • Chilean Peso — Better fundamentals drive the rally
  • Peruvian New Sol — Calm before the storm?

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2023

  • In one line: Finally responding to tight financing conditions and the CLP’s rebound.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

8 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Mexican Capex is Outperforming, but the Near-Term Outlook is Darkening

  • Business capital spending in Mexico performed strongly in Q4, but the outlook is darkening.
  • Tighter financial conditions and a weaker external backdrop will dent the recovery in the near term.
  • Nearshoring dynamics and rate cuts during H2, likely will prevent a protracted downturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Mar 2023 LatAm Monitor Blame President Petro for Colombia's Inflation Nightmare

  • Colombia’s elevated political and policy uncertainty is maintaining the COP close to record lows.
  • President Petro’s chaotic start to the year is helping to keep inflation close to multi-decade highs.
  • Favourable base effects will push inflation down this year, but Mr. Petro’s way of doing politics is a threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Latin America

Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence