Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Another recession, but the details are not as bad as the headline suggest.
- In one line: Manufacturing continues to succumb to global supply troubles.
Rapidly rising inflation in Colombia raises the odds of a bolder rate hike by BanRep next week.
Monetary tightening will continue next year; domestic politics and the twin deficit are threats.
Inflation in Peru edged lower in November, but expectations for further tightening remain intact.
Manufacturing in Brazil continues to succumb to supply troubles; Q4 as a whole will be a write-off.
Banxico's Inflation Report confirms a hawkish, though prudent, Board; we expect 25bp rate hikes.
We believe that the tightening will end at 6.50% next year, but more is possible, depending on the Fed.
- The Brazilian economy slipped into a recession in Q3, due to global supply issues and bad weather.
- Momentum will improve marginally in the near term, as some of the key drags ease...
- ...But downside risks will prevail; Omicron, high in- flation, fiscal and political uncertainty remain drags.
- In one line: The solid recovery continues, but momentum will fade in Q1.
- In one line: The strong recovery continues, for now.
- Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
- Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
- Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.
- The Omicron-sparked sell-off is easing; LatAm is watching closely, after dealing with Delta.
- Supply disruptions have driven Mexico's external accounts into the red; the outlook for H1 is grim.
- The Delta hit in Q3 and increased political risk have scared away investors; outflows are substantial.
- LatAm markets hit as new Covid strain spooks investors driving a safe-haven assets move.
- The Mexican economy performed poorly in Q3, due chiefly to the Delta wave hit to the services sector.
- The recovery will resume soon, but 20-year high inflation and increased policy risk will limit the upturn.
Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease.
The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures.
Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head.
- In one line: Heading north rapidly; Banxico will have to hike further
- Retail sales in Mexico recovered at the margin in late Q3, but not quite reversing the July drop.
- We expect a modest rebound in Q4, thanks to the reopening, but rising inflation will remain a drag.
- Decent remittances from abroad, and an improving labour market, will prevent a protracted downtrend.
- In one line: Only a modest upturn in late Q3, despite low Covid-19 cases.
- Jose Kast won the first round of the Chilean presidential election by a small margin.
- Markets rebounded as candidates will have to moderate their tone and move to the political centre.
- Peru's economy is on the mend; it will do well in Q4, but remains exposed to China and political risks.
- Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
- Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
- Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.
- Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
- Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
- Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.
- In one line: A robust Q3, but political risk likely will constrain the upturn.
- Brazil — Unstable political environment persists
- Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
- Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?