Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q1, 2022

  • In one line: A sharp contraction, but output remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 May 2022 Colombia's Solid Recovery Continued in Q1, but the Pace is Unsustainable

Colombia’s solid recovery continued in Q1, thanks mainly to robust private consumption...

...But momentum is already fading on a sequential basis, due to deteriorating domestic fundamentals.

High inflation, tighter monetary policy, and deteriorating external conditions will be key drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

17 May 2022 Mexico's Industrial Upturn Continued in Q1, but the Outlook has Darkened

Mexico’s total industrial output contributed to GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook is overcast.

High inflation, deteriorating global supply conditions, and increased domestic uncertainty, remain drags.

Argentina’s inflation nightmare continues, despite the government’s efforts to put a lid on the uptrend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: GDP, Colombia, Q1, 2022

  • In one line:  The solid recovery continued in Q1, but momentum is already fading on a sequential basis.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

16 May 2022 LatAm Central Banks in a Big Dilemma

Rising export prices continue to support growth, but they are also driving higher-than-expected inflation.

Global inflation pressures from food and energy will keep restrictive bias on monetary policy.

Most countries will continue to tighten, despite the absence of domestic demand-driven inflation.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, May, 2022

  • In one line: The aggressive tightening continues as the inflation outlook deteriorates.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

13 May 2022 Banxico Hikes by Another 50bp, but Rates are Nowhere Near the Peak Yet

Banxico delivered another bold rate hike, and their tone has turned even more hawkish.

Inflation continues to head north in Brazil, due mainly to the effect of global supply shocks.

Further rate hikes will help to reduce inflation expectations, but will bring the economy to its knees.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

12 May 2022 Under Global Clouds

Brazil — Hurt by increased risk aversion

Mexico — Increased global uncertainty hits the BVM

Colombia — Under pressure, despite solid dividends

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, April, 2022

  • In one line: Underlying pressures remain elevated, but headline inflation is peaking.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

11 May 2022 The Recovery in Households' Spending in Brazil Will Slow Soon

Retail sales in Brazil rebounded in Q1, despite high inflation and tighter financial conditions...

...The reopening and further fiscal support have driven the recovery, but momentum will ease soon.

The real income squeeze and further interest rate hikes will hurt, but consumption won't collapse.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, Brazil, March, 2022

  • In one line: A solid Q1, but growth momentum likely will start to ease soon.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

10 May Inflation in Mexico and Colombia Continues to Rise Rapidly, for Now

April inflation in Mexico undershot expectations, but the near-term outlook remains challenging.

The data brought modest comfort to policymakers, but the tightening cycle will continue this week.

In Colombia, April inflation surprised to the upside; BanRep will keep hiking, as it is far behind the curve.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, April, 2022

  • In one line: Slightly better-than-expected, but challenges remain.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

9 May 2022 The BCCh Hiked Rates Boldly as Inflation Accelerated Sharply in April

The BCCh delivers a bigger-than-expected rate hike, and leaves the door open for further tightening.

Inflation rose in April faster than policymakers expected, keeping up the pressure for more rate hikes.

The CLP sell-off, high commodity prices, and the lagged effect of policy stimulus remain a nightmare.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, April, 2022

  • In one line: Terrible, and set to increase further over the next few months.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation, Colombia, April

  • In one line: Inflation is rising rapidly, and conditions remain challenging.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 May 2022 The COPOM Hints a Modest Rate Hike in June, but Uncertainty is High

The COPOM increased rates by 100bp, as widely expected, but has tweaked its near-term plans...

...It has opened the door for a hike of “lower magnitude” in June; this will be the last of the cycle.

Inflation in Peru is running wild despite the implementation of subsidies; the BCRP will hike next week.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

5 May 2022 FX Under Pressure as Correction Takes Hold

Brazilian Real — Under pressure as the USD rebounds

Colombian Peso — Correcting due to high uncertainty

Chilean Peso — Elevated domestic and external risk

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Latin America

Latin America Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence