- Brazil's economic upturn continued in Q3, but high inflation and tighter policy will dent the rebound soon.
- The Argentine president's nightmare worsens as his coalition tumbles and the economy deteriorates.
- Inflation is high, and sluggish demand, political risk and policy heterodoxy will limit the upturn.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico — Benign conditions prevail, for now
- Colombia — A decent rebound, but risks prevail
- Peru — Up, thanks to politics and commodities
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid start to Q3, thanks to solid household consumption, as the economy reopens.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's retail sector started Q3 on a solid footing, thanks to lower Covid cases and further fiscal aid.
- The recovery, however, still looks set to slow over the coming months, as inflation picks up.
- A solid start to Q3 for Mexico's industrial sector, despite weakening survey data.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina's economic outlook and markets improve as the ruling party falters in BA province vote.
- Peru's BRCP increased interest rates last week; infla- tion rebounding on the back of the PEN sell-off.
- The door is open to further data-dependent hikes; politics and global volatility will force the Board to act.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil's inflation surprises to the upside in August; the near-term outlook remains challenging.
- A sharp inflation rebound supports the case for interest rates above neutral in the near term.
- Inflation in Chile overshot expectations, again; the BCCh will deliver more tightening to tame pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A punchy start to Q3, but high inflation is a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A solid start to Q3, despite weakening survey data.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Increased inflation pressures and prospects of DM policy normalisation complicate LatAm policy.
- Inflation in Mexico slowed in August, thanks mainly to price controls, but core pressures are building up.
- The 2022 budget proposal signals a pledge to fiscal discipline, but some of the assumptions are shaky.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Grim, supporting the case for interest rates above neutral.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombian Peso — Pressures ease, for now
- Argentinian Peso — A brewing crisis
- Brazilian Real — Mr. Bolsonaro in the spotlight, again
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- PMI surveys in Mexico suggest that momentum shifted lower in August, due to supply shocks.
- Consumer confidence deteriorated in Q3, on the back of the third Covid wave and high inflation.
- Fixed investment stalled in June, but the rec
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Colombia rose sharply in most of Q3, de- spite a stuttering economic rebound in H1.
- The FX sell-off and rising commodity prices will make life more difficult for behind-the-curve BanRep.
- The economic recovery stalled in Q2, due mainly to social unrest; it will improve soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The Chilean economy continues to surprise to the upside, and the good news will continue over Q4…
- …But risks are tilting to the downside due to higher inflation pressures and tighter economic policies.
- Peru's inflation rose sharply in August, due mainly to the lagged effect of the PEN's sell-of
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- The Brazilian economy stalled in Q2, due mainly to ongoing manufacturing issues; Q3 will be better.
- Near-real-time indicators and sector data signal a decent expansion ahead, particularly in services.
- BCCh hiked rates boldly, leaving the door open to further tightening as inflation risks increase.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but downside risks are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
