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Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Economic Activity Is Showing Renewed Signs Of Fatigue...But Inflation Is Finally Edging Lower
In one line: The slowdown continues.
In one line: Resilient, but momentum is fading on a sequential basis.
Mexico's trade deficit increased in June, due mostly to rising oil imports, thanks to higher prices.
Exports are also performing strongly, particularly manufactured goods, but risks have emerged.
Colombia's BanRep will likely hike by another massive 150pbs today, and more tightening is coming.
A disinflation trend is emerging in Brazil, thanks to the government’s efforts to control key prices...
...And, at the same time, to boost president Bolsonaro’s chances of being re-elected.
The deteriorating fiscal outlook, however, is becoming a key threat for inflation next year.
In one line: A downward trend emerges thanks to the government's measures.
In one line: A modest contraction in May, but Q2 was still decent.
The IGAE report confirmed that Mexico’s economy remained resilient in Q2, but momentum is easing.
Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, but the near-term outlook is negative...
...High inflation and tighter financial conditions will push the economy into a technical recession soon.
Inflation in Mexico is still heading north, due chiefly to increased food prices and the reopening...
...But upside forces in key components, particularly services and energy, are stabilising or even easing.
Banxico will hike at its current 75bp pace in August, but conditions will allow slower tightening in Q4.
In one line: Still under pressure, but upside momentum is easing in key components.
Mexico's IOAE index reveals that the economy struggled in late Q2, downside risks prevail.
Real GDP probably will fall in Q3 on a sequential basis, but a technical recession likely will be averted.
Improving manufacturing, and gradually falling inflation, will support growth in Q4
Brazil — Increasing spending ahead of the election
Chile — Turbulent weeks ahead
Peru — Mr. Castillo's troubled first year
Peru’s economic activity improved in May, thanks mainly to rebounding private consumption...
...But the upturn won’t last as real incomes are squeezed and credit conditions deteriorate further.
Argentina’s inflation will continue to rise rapidly over H1, despite undershooting expectations in June.
Colombia’s near-term outlook is deteriorating; the COP’s sell-off highlights the pessimistic scenario.
Retail sales remain above pre-Covid levels, but momentum is petering out, due to high inflation.
A recession is not our base case, for now; improving services activity and resilient manufacturing will help.
The inflation picture in Chile has deteriorated markedly, forcing the BCCh to increase rates boldly...
...But the rapid tightening failed to bring the CLP under control, prompting FX intervention last week.
Volatility likely will ease in the near term, but further rate hikes in the short run will be needed.
Brazil’s retail sector performed solidly in Q2, despite challenging conditions, including high inflation.
Activity in the services sector continues to gather speed, as virus restrictions are gone.
The IBC-Br index is raising red flags, but the bigger picture is what counts; the recovery continues.
In one line: The recovery continued in Q2.
In one line: The tightening continues, and more is coming.
Brazil — Increasing fiscal uncertainty is hurting
Mexico — Global risk aversion remains the drag
Chile — Hit by lower copper prices and politics
In one line: Undershooting expectations, but the near-term outlook has improved.
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