Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: A poor start to Q4, due chiefly to plunging mining activity.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
MONETARY EASING CONTINUES, AS INFLATION FALLS...
- ...THIS WILL PREVENT A PROTRACTED ECONOMIC DOWNTREND
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s unemployment fell in October to recent cyclical lows, but the good news won’t continue.
- Mexico’s job market remains resilient, buoying Banxico’s hawks, but the current strength can’t last.
- In Chile and Colombia, the job market also looks solid, but this is a lagging indicator; it will slow soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s disinflation is fully on track as economic activity loses momentum.
- This, coupled with benign external conditions, will allow BCB to accelerate the pace of policy easing.
- Peru’s economy has been able to dodge a technical recession this year, but high real rates are a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s Milei seems to be grasping orthodoxy, for now, by appointing a centrist as minister of economy.
- The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of deteriorating growth in H1.
- Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 200%.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A stronger-than-expected Q3, but downside forces are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s economy did well in Q3 due chiefly to stronger services, but the good news won’t last.
- Growth momentum is easing; higher borrowing costs are triggering a slowdown in consumption.
- Interest rate cuts are coming, as the minutes of the last meeting suggest, but in Q4?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican retail sales volumes fell in September for the third consecutive month, and will continue to decline.
- Leading indicators point to a broad-based slowdown in Q4 and Q1, as tighter financial conditions bite.
- This, coupled with rapidly easing core inflation pressures, will allow Banxico to cut soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s gradual recovery will continue in Q4, but GDP remains below its pre-pandemic trend...
- ...Subpar growth and limited inflation pressures will allow the BCCh to keep cutting rates in H1.
- Activity will gather speed next year, but El Niño and geopolitical risks are key threats.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Milei victory presages radical change in Argentina; but a highly fragmented Congress will be a big hurdle.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent Q3, but more interest rate cuts are needed.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Libertarian Javier Milei wins Argentina’s presidential election; the less bad option for the battered country.
- Argentina’s prospects will improve if Congress allows Milei to ‘take a hacksaw’ to the state.
- Brazil’s economy struggled in Q3, opening the door to bigger rate cuts if fiscal pragmatism prevails.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s economy dodged a technical recession in Q3, but growth prospects remain gloomy.
- Elevated political uncertainty and stiflingly high interest rates continue to drag down investment.
- Conditions likely will improve in Q1, as BanRep starts to ease rates, but Petro’s policy will remain a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Opinion polls are pointing to a knife-edge result in this Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina.
- Uncertainty is high, but the near-term outlook is clear: expect an FX sell-off, high inflation and recession.
- The next president will have a difficult job getting the economy back on track.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal uncertainty back in the spotlight
- Argentina — Anything can happen on Sunday
- Colombia — Resounding defeat for President Petro
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation is still firmly falling, despite the temporary rebound in Q3.
- A weakening service sector and sliding consumer morale suggest stronger rate cuts are needed.
- Mexico’s manufacturing is finally showing signs of life, but it is too soon to expect a protracted upturn.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP stuck to the script and cut rates by 25bp last week, but we do not rule out stronger moves.
- Colombia’s inflation figures for October support the case for the easing cycle to start next month.
- Sluggish demand, easing indexation, less political risk and the COP’s stability will bring inflation down.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Banxico kept interest rates on hold, as widely expected, but started to lay the ground for rate cuts.
- Falling inflation and a dovish Fed have the potential to open the door to rate cuts as early as next month.
- Inflation continues to fall, and we are confident that underlying pressures will remain subdued.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
