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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

*December 2021 - Latin America Chartbook*

  • THE RECOVERY CONTINUES IN LATAM…
    …BUT HIGH INFLATION AND OMICRON ARE REAL THREATS

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Brazil, Q3 2021

  • In one line: Another recession, but the details are not as bad as the headline suggest.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October 2021

  • In one line:   Manufacturing continues to succumb to global supply troubles.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

7 Dec 2021 Rising Core Inflation in the Andes will Force Policymakers to Keep Hiking

Rapidly rising inflation in Colombia raises the odds of a bolder rate hike by BanRep next week.

Monetary tightening will continue next year; domestic politics and the twin deficit are threats.

Inflation in Peru edged lower in November, but expectations for further tightening remain intact.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

6 Dec 2021 Manufacturing in Brazil is Still Succumbing to Global Supply Woes

Manufacturing in Brazil continues to succumb to supply troubles; Q4 as a whole will be a write-off.

Banxico's Inflation Report confirms a hawkish, though prudent, Board; we expect 25bp rate hikes.

We believe that the tightening will end at 6.50% next year, but more is possible, depending on the Fed.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

3 Dec 2021 Brazil Slipped into a Recession in Q3, but will Rebound in Q4, Just

  • The Brazilian economy slipped into a recession in Q3, due to global supply issues and bad weather.
  • Momentum will improve marginally in the near term, as some of the key drags ease...
  • ...But downside risks will prevail; Omicron, high in- flation, fiscal and political uncertainty remain drags.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

1 Dec 2021 Chile's Economy Started Q4 on a Solid Footing, Despite Politics

  • Chile's economy remains resilient thanks, to a solid vaccination program and robust policy support.
  • Solid retail sales get Q4 consumption off to a very strong start, but momentum will ease soon.
  • Challenging external conditions, high inflation, and political noise will limit the recovery in H1.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

30 Nov 2021 Omicron Arrives in LatAm Just as the Pandemic Was Under Control

  • The Omicron-sparked sell-off is easing; LatAm is watching closely, after dealing with Delta.
  • Supply disruptions have driven Mexico's external accounts into the red; the outlook for H1 is grim.
  • The Delta hit in Q3 and increased political risk have scared away investors; outflows are substantial.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

29 Nov 2021 Fears of a Potential Vaccine- Resistant Variant Hit LatAm Markets

  • LatAm markets hit as new Covid strain spooks investors driving a safe-haven assets move.
  • The Mexican economy performed poorly in Q3, due chiefly to the Delta wave hit to the services sector.
  • The recovery will resume soon, but 20-year high inflation and increased policy risk will limit the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

26 Nov 2021 November's Inflation Data in Brazil Should Not Trouble the COPOM

  • Higher gasoline prices in Brazil likely won't derail the imminent drop in IPCA inflation as other shocks ease. 

    The lagged effect of tighter monetary policy will also put a lid on underlying inflation pressures. 

    Mexican markets under stress following AMLO's announcement of a new nominee as Banxico's head. 

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

24 Nov 2021 Mexico's Retail Sales Recovered in Late Q3, but the Trend Remains Weak

  • Retail sales in Mexico recovered at the margin in late Q3, but not quite reversing the July drop.
  • We expect a modest rebound in Q4, thanks to the reopening, but rising inflation will remain a drag.
  • Decent remittances from abroad, and an improving labour market, will prevent a protracted downtrend.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: Retail Sales, Mexico, September 2021

  • In one line:  Only a modest upturn in late Q3, despite low Covid-19 cases.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

23 Nov 2021 All Eyes on Chile's Presidential Runoff, Peru's Rebound Continues

  • Jose Kast won the first round of the Chilean presidential election by a small margin.
  • Markets rebounded as candidates will have to moderate their tone and move to the political centre.
  • Peru's economy is on the mend; it will do well in Q4, but remains exposed to China and political risks.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

22 Nov 2021 The Chilean Economy Won't Have it Easy, Even if Pro-Business Kast Wins

  • Chilean GDP growth accelerated in Q3, but the strong data are backward-looking; 2022 looks shaky.
  • Tighter fiscal and monetary policies likely will put the economy on the verge of a technical recession.
  • Even assuming a Kast win, political risk will persist; the constitutional process will remain a threat.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

19 Nov 2021 Chileans Go to the Polls this Sunday, Colombia's GDP Rebounding Solidly

  • Chile is set to vote on Sunday in one of most unpredictable elections in years; a runoff is likely.
  • Colombia's GDP has resumed its solid rebound in Q3, following a self-inflicted shock in Q2.
  • Momentum likely will continue to improve over the next few months; BanRep will have to hike further.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Chile, Q3 2021

  • In one line:  A robust Q3, but political risk likely will constrain the upturn.

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

18 Nov 2021 The Clouds are Gathering on LatAm Politics

  • Brazil — Unstable political environment persists    
  • Colombia — Dissatisfaction is driving the undecided
  • Chile — Will the country move to the left or right?

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

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