- In one line: Resilient, but leading indicators warn of a difficult H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Brazil’s real GDP has risen for a fifth consecutive quarter; output is about 5% above pre-Covid level...
...But the balance of risks for 2023 is to the downside, due mainly to increased fiscal threats.
Policy uncertainty could keep interest rates high for even longer, and the global economy won’t help.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Surprisingly resilient on a sequential basis.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent Q3, despite an array of drags on growth.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
The Argentinian economy is resilient, but the survey data tell a clear story of slowing growth in H1.
Households have been able to muddle through this year, but inflation is fast approaching 100%.
Deteriorating fundamentals suggest that the ruling coalition will lose the presidency in 2023.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Economic activity remains relatively resilient in Peru, despite a deteriorating political backdrop.
Growth momentum will continue to slow over H1, due to high inflation and high interest rates...
...But the economy won’t collapse; relatively solid check-and-balances will prevent a nightmare.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but growth momentum is still easing sequentially.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Undershooting expectations, but core remains sticky, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation continues to fall rapidly, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Mexico’s economic activity was resilient in Q3, but this is in stark contrast to survey data.
Manufacturing and services activity are showing early signs of fatigue; 2023 will be difficult.
The current account slid to 1.6% of GDP, but FDI saved the day; we expect a gradual correction in H1.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
Inflation continues to fall rapidly in Brazil, but increased fiscal uncertainty remains a threat.
Headline inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside again in November, but the core remains sticky.
Softening demand, favourable base effects and high interest rates will push core inflation down soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Mexico fell for a second consecutive month in September, hit by still-high inflation.
- Tighter financial conditions are also helping to put the sector under renewed strain.
- Still-solid remittances from abroad, and a resilient labour market, will prevent a collapse, for now.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Argentina’s inflation woes continue, despite a marginal improvement on a sequential basis.
- High indexation means more trouble ahead, offsetting the government’s efforts to control prices.
- The BCRA will be able to stay on the sidelines, for now, thanks to the less grim sequential data.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s recovery continued to stall in Q3, due mostly to plunging domestic demand.
- Conditions will remain difficult in the near term, forcing the BCCh to cut rates early next year.
- The current account deficit has ballooned, but a correction is now underway; the risk will ease soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The economy is shrinking, and the near-term outlook remains negative.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s President had a decent first 100 days in office, with the tax reform as a key achievement...
- ...But conflicting signals, between radicalism and orthodoxy, have hurt and will keep investors on alert.
- BanRep is likely to raise the policy interest rate further, owing to persistent price pressures.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula is yet to name his cabinet
- Mexico — AMLO’s electoral reform sparks protests
- Colombia — A mixed start to Mr. Petro’s preside
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s recovery continued in H2, but risks are tilted to the downside, due chiefly to high interest rates.
- Peru’s central bank increased interest rates last week, and left the door open to further tightening...
- ...But it will move to the sidelines soon, as inflation is finally falling, and economic activity stutters.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The recovery continues, but risks are tilted to the downside.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
