Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Latin America Publications

Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

11 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock

  • Brazil’s inflation data show subdued pressures but rising risk from oil prices and drought conditions.
  • The retail sales decline signals economic headwinds as Brazil faces tighter financial conditions ahead.
  • Banxico will keep cutting interest rates in Q4 as the inflation picture continues to improve.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: CPI, Mexico, September, 2024

  • In one line: Subdued inflation pressures, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: Inflation IPCA, Brazil, September, 2024

  • In one line: A benign inflation report despite a number of threats. 

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

10 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Improving, thanks to China and the US Fed

  • Mexico — Global issues and politics the key drags
  • Colombia — Subdued due to fiscal noise
  • Chile — Markets rise amid economic optimism

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

9 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Disinflation in the Andes fully on track, allowing further easing in Q4

  • The gradual easing of inflation pressures continues in Colombia, despite temporary upside shocks.
  • Political uncertainty and minimum-wage talks complicate BanRep’s ability to accelerate rate cuts.
  • Chile’s inflation slowed in September, paving the way for further rate cuts amid energy-tariff uncertainty.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

8 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's trade surplus declines, highlighting near-term issues

  • Brazil’s exports are struggling as weak prices hit the mining/oil sectors and overall trade performance.
  • Imports have surged, for the wrong reasons; domestic demand will ease soon.
  • Domestic and external challenges are weighing on Mexico’s growth outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

7 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Claudia Sheinbaum; a bold new direction for Mexico?

  • Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has the chance to reshape policies and enhance capex.
  • She must address drug-related violence, energy policies and maintain strong ties with the US.
  • Proposed reforms spark concerns over increased executive power and its impact on key institutions.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

4 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Industrial activity struggles in Brazil; tight financial conditions a threat

  • Brazil’s industrial output inches up in August, highlighting ongoing economic challenges.
  • Moody’s upgrades Brazil’s credit rating, boosting confidence in economic reforms.
  • Peru’s inflation rate drops to 1.8%, paving the way for further interest rate cuts.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

2 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Colombia's BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery

  • Colombia’s BanRep cut interest rates again, signalling continued easing amid falling inflation.
  • The Board adopted a more dovish stance, paving the way for an accelerated normalisation, if needed.
  • Chile’s IMACEC index is sending mixed signals;mining shows signs of life but services struggle.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

PM Datanote: BanRep Rate Decision, Colombia, September, 2024

  • In one line: The 50bp pace of rate cuts continues amid mixed economic signals and a cautious inflation outlook.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

September 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

LATIN AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKS TACKLE INFLATION…

  • …AND GROWTH CHALLENGES, AMID GLOBAL PRESSURES

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

1 October 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's job market shows resilience amid emerging growth challenges

  • Brazil’s unemployment rate drops to record low, indicating tight labour market conditions….
  • …But economic indicators suggest potential job market slowdown as tight financial conditions bite.
  • Chile’s August economic data was strong, yet leading indicators signal caution for future growth.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

30 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing

  • Banxico has cut interest rates as expected, and maintains a dovish stance amid economic weakness.
  • Declining inflation, struggling economic activity and the Fed’s easing will allow further rate cuts.
  • Argentina’s radical reforms drive a modest recovery, yet significant challenges remain.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

27 September 2024 LatAm Monitor Brazil's inflation trends suggest stability in Selic rate outlook

  • Inflation has been slowing rapidly in September, reinforcing our expectations for a stable Selic rate.
  • Underlying pressures are still under control, and we expect the picture to remain benign in Q4.
  • The current account deficit is widening amid falling exports, resilient imports and fiscal concerns.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

25 September 2024 LatAm Monitor September inflation data support further rate cuts in Mexico

  • Mexico’s inflation decline paves the way for Banxico to cut rates at tomorrow’s meeting.
  • Weak economic growth is pressuring policymakers to ease further, but political noise will remain a risk.
  • Brazil’s COPOM minutes signal caution, suggesting limited rate hikes amid slowing growth.

Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America

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