Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Brazil — The fiscal framework saga continues
- Colombia — Uncertainty on all fronts
- Peru — The crisis has eased, but it is not over
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- LatAm markets have shrugged off the banking crisis, thanks to strict capital and liquidity requirements.
- An elevated carry has also helped to withstand the hit, but tighter financing conditions are a big threat.
- Most central banks will ease their tone and open the door to rate cuts, if domestic conditions allows.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s Q4 GDP report confirmed that the economy suffered a nasty recession during most of 2022...
- ...But the big picture is of an economy gradually turning the corner, and the near-term outlook is upbeat.
- The recovery will continue this year, along with the gradual correction in the current account deficit.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Demand for labour continues to wane in Brazil, adding pressure on the COPOM to cut rates...
- ...But fiscal uncertainty needs to be tackled first, to allow policymakers to adopt a dovish tone.
- Protests in Peru brought the economy to its knees in January, but the uptrend will resume soon.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Retail sales in Colombia started the year slightly better than expected, but the downtrend continues.
- Tighter financial conditions and elevated uncertainty are also keeping manufacturing under strain.
- Mr. Petro’s reform plans will make investors uneasy; we hope Congress will dial back his populist scheme.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — All eyes on the fiscal framework
- Mexico — Stable, despite the U.S. banking crisis
- Argentina — Global risk drives a sell-off
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican industrial production was resilient in January, helped mainly by a leap in manufacturing…
- …But tighter financial conditions, hurting business capex, and a choppy external backdrop are threats.
- The recovery in construction stalled in January, but this followed an impressive performance in Q4.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent start to the year, but high interest rates remain a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- LatAm markets start the week under pressure due to the SVB news, but this won’t be Lehman reloaded.
- Chile’s President Boric delivers his second major cabinet reshuffle since taking office a year ago…
- …Mr. Boric will have to embrace orthodoxy to persuade lawmakers to pass his economic/social agenda.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Disinflation is underway in Brazil, and the near term remains benign, despite elevated political noise.
- The introduction of a responsible fiscal framework this month will open the door for rate cuts during H2.
- Peru’s BCRP hasn’t been distracted by the benign inflation picture in February; caution will prevail in Q2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation underway, despite increased fiscal risks.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold and on the sidelines in the near term, due to high uncertainty.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Inflation in Mexico and Chile surprised to the down- side in February, giving policymakers leeway.
- The strong MXN and CLP appreciation recently will add to the downward pressure on goods prices.
- The subdued medium-term picture will persuade policymakers to cut interest rates during H2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation is finally coming back down to earth.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Growth Stutters But Core Inflation Remains Sticky....It Will Fall, But Central Banks Will Keep Rates On Hold In H1
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Mexican Peso — The rebound continues
- Chilean Peso — Better fundamentals drive the rally
- Peruvian New Sol — Calm before the storm?
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Finally responding to tight financing conditions and the CLP’s rebound.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Business capital spending in Mexico performed strongly in Q4, but the outlook is darkening.
- Tighter financial conditions and a weaker external backdrop will dent the recovery in the near term.
- Nearshoring dynamics and rate cuts during H2, likely will prevent a protracted downturn.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Colombia’s elevated political and policy uncertainty is maintaining the COP close to record lows.
- President Petro’s chaotic start to the year is helping to keep inflation close to multi-decade highs.
- Favourable base effects will push inflation down this year, but Mr. Petro’s way of doing politics is a threat.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
