Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, January

Overall credit growth still relatively sturdy, thanks to robust government bond issuance  

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 February 2025 China+Monitor China doubling down on consumer goods subsidies this year

  • China’s consumer goods trade-in scheme drove RMB300B in retail sales, or 0.2% of GDP, last year.
  • The expanded scheme is likely to drive 0.7% of GDP this year, thanks to greater fiscal support.
  • The industrial equipment upgrade programme should support 0.8% of GDP, unchanged from last year.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

11 February 2025 China+Monitor China's holiday inflation bump reflects seasonal factors

  • China’s January headline consumer inflation jumped, due to holiday spending and timing effects.
  • The holiday bump in inflation is likely to subside after Lunar New Year, with demand still soft.
  • Producer prices continued to fall in January, amid signs of industrial excess supply and falling costs.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, January

Producer prices extend their decline with broad price falls

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 February 2025: Headline inflation buoyed by holiday spending

China's headline consumer inflation buoyed by holiday travel and spending; underlying trend still weak for both consumer and producer prices

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, January

China’s foreign reserves rose in January, likely on the back of export front loading ahead of tariff risks

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 February 2025 China+ Monitor BoJ signals readiness to keep raising rates amid food price surge

  • BoJ officials continue to indicate their readiness to keep raising rates, despite trade tension worries.
  • January Tokyo consumer inflation jumped to the highest since April 2023, because of food inflation.
  • Real consumption spending also rose in January, but mainly due to spending on necessities.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5 February 2025: China's Caixin services activity slows

China's Caixin services activity slows, but sentiment improves
Japanese wages enjoy year-end bonus boost

Duncan WrigleyChina+

6 February 2025 China+Monitor China's holiday spending is robust, but it won't last

  • China’s consumption activity was strong over the Lunar New Year holiday period...
  • ...But it is likely to slow again afterwards, repeating the pattern established since the reopening.
  • January’s Caixin services PMI activity slowed a tad before the holiday, but expectations improved.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

4 February 2025 China+Monitor China likely to temper its response to the US's opening move on tariffs

  • China is likely to be restrained in its retaliation to the US tariff hike announced over the weekend.
  • A limited trade war is more likely than a near-term grand bargain. Goodwill gestures seem likely.
  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined in January but held up better than the official gauge.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, January

In much better shape than the headline suggests

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3 February 2025: Caixin PMI holds up better than official PMI

China's Caixin PMI holds up better than official index
Korean PMI rebounds with underlying export growth in decent shape

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, January

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31 January 2025: Tokyo inflation bumps up

Tokyo inflation bumps up on mounting food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

3 February 2025 China+ Monitor DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors

  • DeepSeek shows China can make cutting edge AI models, even if the training cost claims are murky.
  • Chinese AI firms are likely to trail closely behind cutting-edge US leaders and improve in some ways.
  • The PBoC’s asymmetric reaction function means the USD CNY downside is larger than the upside.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

31 January 2025 China+Monitor Japanese export rise reflects front-loading rather than stronger demand

  • Japan’s real exports jumped in December, reflecting front-loading ahead of potential US tariff hikes.
  • The January flash manufacturing PMIs fell, with new export orders remaining weak.
  • Business expectations are still relatively strong though, despite worries about trade risks.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

29 January 2025 China+Monitor China's developer-debt issues return, despite Q4 sales stabilising

  • Vanke’s latest travails show persistent developer debt issues, despite slightly better property-market data.
  • Residential area sold and developer funding rose in December but are still at low levels.
  • China’s tier-one cities are likely to lead the upturn; with many cities lumbered with large housing supply,

Duncan WrigleyChina+

28 January 2025 China+ Monitor Surprise fall in China's PMIs signals recovery is far from assured

  • China’s official PMIs unexpectedly fell in January; manufacturing activity dropped to a five-month low.
  • The services PMI reversed December’s gain and fell back to the period-average prior to that month.
  • Manufacturers and developers are optimistic about the outlook despite local and global headwinds.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Policy Decision, Japan, January

The BoJ hikes policy rate and indicates readiness for further tightening at a measured pace

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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