28 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Economic Rebalancing Strategy Informs Market Direction

• The CNY has appreciated thanks to USD weakness but also a warmer tone in U.S.-China relations.
• The tech SME BSE index has soared almost 50% this month, aligning with China’s rebalancing theme.
• The developer “whitelist” is a crucial step on the long, bumpy path to resolving the property sector’s woes.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 27 NOVEMBER 2023

The slower than expected improvement in industrial profits was likely due to base effects and faster rise in operating costs

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Flash PMI, Japan, November

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, October

Japan’s headline inflation rose for the first time in four months, driven by accelerating energy, services and fresh food inflation

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 24 NOVEMBER 2023

Japan’s headline inflation rose for the first time in four months, driven by accelerating energy, services and fresh food inflation

Japanese manufacturing activity is hit by fading demand and production

Services activity is holding up, despite sagging new export orders

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

27 November 2023 China+ Monitor Japan's Core Inflation Basically Steady, Despite Headline Uptick

• Japan’s core inflation barely moved in October, despite a rise in headline inflation...
• ...Driven by the partial roll-back of energy subsidies, soaring hotel costs and fresh food inflation.
• The fall in the November flash manufacturing PMI confirms Japan’s sluggish recovery.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

November 2023 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA USES TARGETED STIMULUS TO PROP UP GROWTH
• - BOJ SIGNALS READINESS TO EXIT EASY POLICY
• - BOK WILL BE LATE TO THE PARTY

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: 20 Day Exports, Korea, November

• In one line: Korea’s chip export values grow for the first time in 13 months 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21 NOVEMBER 2023

• Korea's Semiconductor Exports Rise for the First Time in 13 Months

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 November 2023 China+ Monitor Korea's Export Recovery Continues, as Chip Shipments Turn Around

• Korea’s 20-day exports continue to recover, but growth in shipment values slowed in November.
• Intra-regional exports are falling, bar those to China; Vehicles exports remain the main upward driver.
• We expect Korean exports to recover only gradually on a soft global outlook and uneven chip demand.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

21 November 2023 China+ Monitor China Holds Lending Rates Steady, Relying Instead on Fiscal Support

• China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged in November, in line with the MLF rate last week.
• Policymakers are seemingly using fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, thus allowing confidence to rebuild.
• Monetary policy will probably continue to play an accommodative role—behind fiscal policy—in 2024.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

20 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Property Developers Continue to Flounder

• China’s residential market flagged again in October, despite the new homebuyer incentives since August.
• Developer funding shows little sign of turning around, as worries over debt issues are prevailing.
• The reported affordable-housing programme likely will fall short of the shantytown redevelopment boost.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: PBoC Policy Decision, China, November

• China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20 NOVEMBER 2023: Lending rates on hold

• China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 November 2023 China+ Monitor Japan's Weak Q3 GDP Another Headache for the BoJ

• Japan’s Q3 real GDP was weaker than expected, due to slower inventory growth and a rising deflator.
• Private domestic demand remains sluggish, with consumption and investment missing expectations.
• Interest rates will be kept low for longer, effectively delaying the end of the negative rate policy to Q2.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 NOVEMBER 2023

• Japan’s export growth moderated in October on softer demand from key markets
• China’s house price fall steepened in October, with renewed price fall observed in tier-one cities

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

16 November 2023 China+ Monitor China's Recovery Making Painfully Slow Progress

• China’s domestic demand rose at a sluggish pace in October, while production grew faster.
• Upticks in retail sales of autos and mobile phones are bright spots.
• The PBoC injected RMB600B of MLF funds yesterday, enabling government-bond issuance.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 NOVEMBER 2023: Chinese economy is steady in October

• Chinese domestic demand is buttressed by fiscal support
• Japan's weak Q3 GDP adds to the BoJ's headaches

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

15 November 2023 China+ Monitor Chinese Export Growth: More Robust than You Think

• China’s exports extended their downward trend inOctober, due to weak G7 and regional demand.
• That said, real export demand for certain goods remains healthy, taking price effects into account.
• The good news is that imports rose unexpectedly, likely on rising stimulus-related demand.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 November 2023 China+ Monitor Government-Bond Issuance Holds Up China's Credit Demand

• China’s credit expansion was lukewarm in October, apart from government-bond issuance.
• The slump in net household long-term loans exaggerates the weakness in the residential market.
• China is likely to rely on fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, giving sentiment time to rebuild.

Duncan WrigleyChina+