Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

China+Datanote: LPR, China, June

In one line: China’s loan prime rates left unchanged in June amid record low NIMs for banks

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 June 2024: Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand

Japan's exports buoyed by US and Chinese demand, despite falling shipments to the EU

Duncan WrigleyChina+

19 June 2024 China+ Monitor Government-bond issuance powers credit creation; money growth slows

  • China’s credit grew in May for the first time in six months, as government-bond issuance surged.
  • Home-loan demand was still feeble, though the data are clouded by existing-mortgage repayments
  • May M1 posted a record dive, as businesses shifted money after, in effect, a regulatory deposit-rate cut.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

18 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's targeted stimulus good enough for now; expect only tweaks

  • China’s May activity data point to a modest uptick in consumer spending on services and appliances.
  • Industrial-equipment upgrade policies are propelling fixed asset investment growth.
  • Expect little shift in policy direction; the focus will be on the implementation of existing policy.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: BoJ Decision, Japan, June

In one line: The BoJ will reveal detailed plans for bond tapering in July’s meeting.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17 June 2024: China activity boosted by equipment upgrades

China activity bolstered by equipment upgrade and home appliance trade-in policies, despite weak property and auto sales

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: Money & Credit, China, May

Government bond issuance props up credit creation, as M1 takes a dive 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

17 June 2024 China+ Monitor BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July

  • The BoJ left its policy rate targets unchanged and committed to paring back bond purchases.
  • Details of tapering will be revealed in July after consulting the market; the amount is likely “significant”.
  • We still expect only one rate hike this year, as consumption will likely take longer to recover.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: PPI, China, May

In one line: Producer price reflation hastens in May

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 13 June 2024: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand

In one line: China's CPI print points to sluggish domestic demand; Producer price reflation hastens in May

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

14 June 2024 China+ Monitor China likely to opt for targeted response to EU tariffs on EVs

  • China will probably temper its response to the EU’s EV tariffs; a full-blown trade war should be avoided.
  • Labour Day holiday tourism likely boosted retail sales in May; car sales remain weak amid price cuts.
  • May’s jump in government-bond issuance should keep fixed asset investment ticking over.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

13 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's consumer inflation steadies, pointing to weak domestic demand

  • China’s CPI inflation was unchanged, as slowing core inflation was offset by firming food prices.
  • Producer deflation eased sharply on faster upstream reflation, which bodes well for industrial profitability.
  • More stimulus will be needed to kick-start domestic demand; we reiterate our call for an MLF cut in June.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 June 2024 China+ Monitor Japan's sluggish growth buffeted by widening auto safety investigations

  • Revised data confirm Japan’s weak Q1 GDP performance, especially private consumption.
  • The biggest short-term growth risk is the auto safety-test fiasco, encompassing five more firms.
  • China’s May foreign reserves rebounded thanks to currency valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+Datanote: FX Reserves, China, May

In one line: China’s FX reserves rebounded in May, driven mainly by valuation effect of exchange rate

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 10 June 2024: China's export growth picks up

Japan's revised Q1 GDP still points to miserable domestic demand

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 7 June 2024: China's export growth picks up

China's robust May export growth largely propelled by shipments to ASEAN

Duncan WrigleyChina+

10 June 2024 China+ Monitor China's exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year

  • China’s exports picked up the pace a notch in May, mainly thanks to stronger trade with ASEAN.
  • High-tech exports, such as cars and electronics, are outperforming fading trade in traditional goods.
  • A modest recovery in global demand should help China’s growth this year, despite protectionist risks.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Labour Earnings, Japan, April

  • In one line: Japan's regular pay growth quickened to 30-year high

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

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