CHINA+ DATA WRAP 21.01.22 - Higher Japanese inflation masks deterioration in the core, Omicron weighs on global trade

Core inflation pressures ebb in Japan

Korea signals an export slowdown in January

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

• Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
• External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
• Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.01.22 - Japanese exports slow and Chinese rates fall

External demand began to perk up in late Q4, if you look through the base effects

Bank lending rates follow the MLF down

Craig BothamChina+

19 Jan 2022 Inflation Risks on the Rise in Japan, but Not Enough to Change Policy

• The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
• Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
• Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.01.22 - Kuroda defiant at BoJ meeting

BoJ statement and outlook make some modest changes

Governor Kuroda quashes rate hike rumours

Craig BothamChina+

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

• Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
• The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
• ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

• China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
• Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
• Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14.01.22 - Another record Chinese trade surplus masks worrying signs for demand

Trade data points to weaker Chinese demand

A hawkish hike from the BoK

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

• China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
• The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
• We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Jan 2022 Chinese Inflation is Past the Peak, and Set to Plunge

• China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
• Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
• Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, December

In one line: Stronger money growth chiefly driven by fiscal efforts, as banks pull back

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12.01.22 - Moving past China's inflation peak

Food price growth turns negative once more

Industrial goods inflation wanes further

Craig BothamChina+

10 Jan 2022 Energy Leads Japanese Inflation Higher in December

• Tokyo CPI inflation reached a two-year high in December, thanks largely to energy prices.
• Inflation will climb further yet, but will still fall short of the BoJ's 2% target.
• Chinese reserves data show the PBoC has been leaning against renminbi appreciation.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, December

In one line: Reserves are still growing as the PBoC leans against currency strength

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 07.01.22 - Tokyo CPI points to higher headline inflation in Japan

Transitory drivers work in the BoJ’s favour in December

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

• China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
• We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
• Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 06.01.22 - A surprise bounce in China's services PMI

Covid proves less damaging than expected to service sector activity

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

• Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
• External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
• Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

• Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
• Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
• Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+