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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 14.10.21

  • Energy shortages push PPI to fresh heights while food remains the dominant theme for CPI

    The immediate impact is felt by industry, but it will spread

Craig BothamChina+

14 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions are Visible, Despite Export Strength

  • Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
  • ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
  • Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply and Credit, China, September 2021

  • In one line: Deleveraging pressures continue as Evergrande’s shadow chills the economy

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 13.10.21

  • Production shutdowns are still working their way through the pipe

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Bank of Korea decision, October 2021

  • In one line: No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 12.10.21

  • No back to back hikes from the BoK, but a November hike is all but assured

    Renewed market intervention a possibility

Craig BothamChina+

11 Oct 2021 Policymakers Move to Ease Energy Crisis

  • We downgrade our outlook for Chinese growth further as energy shortages spread.
  • Policy responses will save the economy from the worst, but some pain is inevitable.
  • China's zero-Covid policies remain a headwind for the service sector, despite a rebound.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 8.10.21

  • Optimism around Covid lifts the service sector

    Stress continues for the property sector

Craig BothamChina+

8 Oct 2021 No Capital Outflows Yet, but Contagion is Still Spreading

  • No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data.
  • Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now.
  • Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: FX Reserves, China, September 2021

  • In one line: Reserves fall, but no sign yet of capital flight

Craig BothamChina+

6 Oct 2021 Supply Chain Disruptions Add to Transitory Inflation Pressures

  • A shock return to positive territory for Tokyo CPI inflation...
  • ...Partly driven by the BoJ's usual suspects, but with a larger contribution from goods prices.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 5.10.21

  • Japanese inflation lurches to life, but transitory factors still dominate

    Chinese property market stress spreads as another developer misses a dollar bond payment

    USTR leads with bark and no bite, for now

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 4.10.21

  • Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites
  • Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

4 Oct 2021 I Don't Want that Much for Christmas (Luckily)

  • China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
  • ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
  • Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Full-month exports, Korea, September 2021

  • In one line: Korean exports may have benefitted from China’s energy problems despite a slowdown

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.10.21

  • Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites

    Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30.9.21

  • Manufacturing weakens as energy rationing bites
  • Fading Delta wave boosts services, but Evergrande starts to weigh

Craig BothamChina+

September 2021 - China+ Chartbook

  • Evergrande And Energy Threaten China's Growth...BoJ Policy Moves To Greener Pastures...Household Debt Resumes Centre Stage For Korea

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence