Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

6 December 2024 China+ Monitor China's currency weakens after effective deposit-rate cut

  • Recent USDCNY weakness is largely a reflection of broad dollar strength…
  • …But also falling Chinese government-bond yields, after an effective deposit-rate cut.
  • November’s Caixin services PMI points to resilient activity but deflation pressure.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Official Non-Manufacturing PMI, China, November

In one line: China’s non-manufacturing growth stalls in November as construction weighs on activity. 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Official Manufacturing PMI, China, November

In one line: China’s stimulus continues to give manufacturing activity a modest lift amid looming geopolitical uncertainty

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, November

In one line: Korea’s WDA exports rebound in November, but looming protectionist risks loom over growth.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Preliminary GDP, Japan, Q3

In one line: Japan’s Q3 GDP is a mixed bag, with private consumption surprising on the upside but business investment falling.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, October

In one line: China's credit growth slows to historic lows amid muted household and business loan demand

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9 November 2024

China's deflation risks persist in October, but there is a silver lining

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, October

In one line: China’s headline producer deflation masks stimulus-driven price upticks in construction materials

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: CPI, China, October

In one line: China’s CPI near deflation weighed down by volatile items; uptick in services inflation 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Current Account, China, Q3

In one line: China’s Q3 current account surplus widens; inward FDI remains negative for second consecutive quarter 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Exports, China, October

In one line: One month’s data can be misleading; China's quarterly export growth has, in fact, decelerated.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, October

In one line: China’s foreign reserves drop in October amid dollar strength and outflow pressures.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Wages, Japan, September

In one line: Japan’s wage growth holds steady, supporting case for BoJ hike in early 2025; Our revised forecasts post-Trump victory show weaker growth 

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

4 December 2024 China+ Monitor Korea's export trend slowing amid growing global trade tensions

  • Korea’s headline export growth eased in November, but work-day-adjusted data showed a bounce-back.
  • The rebound was driven by stronger ASEAN shipments; overall growth momentum is slowing.
  • We expect the BoK to ease by 75bp in 2025 to counteract the increasingly uncertain export outlook.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

3 December 2024 China+ Monitor China's manufacturing riding near-term support

  • Both of China’s manufacturing PMIs in November point to a near-term uptick in activity.
  • But their price indices are a mixed bag, and China probably hasn’t escaped deflation just yet.
  • The construction PMI disappointed, due to the continued drag from housing construction.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, China, November

PMI buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 2 December 2024: Rising demand buoys Caixin and Korean PMIs

China Caixin and Korean manufacturing PMIs buoyed by rising near-term demand; but under the shadow of protectionism risks in 2025

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Tokyo CPI, Japan, November

Tokyo headline inflation surges, but mainly thanks to higher energy and fresh food inflation

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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independent macro research, China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,