China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Export orders plunge amid tariff chaos
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 GDP growth relied heavily on net exports, highlighting the need to boost domestic demand.
- But new residential-property sales have waned this year, notably in oversupplied markets.
- Policymakers will prioritise job creation by supporting consumer services and construction.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
- China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
- China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
China’s Q1 GDP growth was boosted by demand stimulus and export front-loading pre-tariff turmoil
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s Q1 growth was already cooling from the Q4 high; hence March’s additional fiscal stimulus.
- Front-loading effects also boosted March exports and industrial output, but this should prove fleeting.
- China will need to stoke domestic demand further, as exports risk hitting a wall in the coming quarters.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The March CKGSB index reports reviving Chinese business confidence, despite the imminent trade war.
- Funding conditions have improved thanks to policy support, though profits are under pressure.
- Robust government-bond issuance lifted broad credit growth in March; M1’s rise is somewhat encouraging.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s export growth bounced back in March, due to a pick-up in activity after the Lunar New Year holiday.
- The increase in shipments was particularly strong to traditional markets, the G7 and the EU.
- President Trump’s postponement of tariffs on electronic goods gives Chinese exports a breather.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Government bond issuance still taking centre stage, with modest uptick in household loans
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China acted as the adult in the room on Friday, saying it will not match any further US tariff hikes.
- This is hopefully the escalation off-ramp, paving the way for bilateral talks, probably in several months.
- Still, tariffs will likely remain high, hurting exports, worsening excess supply and so prolonging deflation.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China is unlikely to back down openly because of Mr. Xi’s personality and the country’s historical context.
- The State Council published a white paper outlining the official stance on Sino-US trade frictions.
- China will need to worry about second-order retaliation from the US via Vietnam and Mexico.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Both the US and China seem to have dug in, making a short-term cessation of trade-war hostilities unlikely.
- More escalation is likely on the cards, but this could be the crisis that prompts China to boost consumption.
- The PBoC has started allowing RMB depreciation as part of the response, but it must tread carefully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Both China and the US are posturing as the trade war escalates and markets plunge.
- China’s National Team appears to be intervening, with limited success, to soften the A-share market dive.
- The PBoC is likely to cut the RRR soon to boost confidence; government-bond issuance will speed up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's foreign reserves excluding valuation effects fell
Japan's real wage decline hurts consumption
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China likely to step up fiscal and monetary policy support, allow weaker RMB, in response to hefty US tariff hike;
Caixin services activity rises
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China will seek to prop up domestic demand in response to the US tariff hikes…
- …But this won’t mitigate the hit to growth fully, so we cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.4pp, to 4.0%.
- Serious trade talks are likely to get underway soon, but the US is unlikely to roll back the tariff hikes fully.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Korean export growth accelerated in March, but due to post-holiday effects and front-loading or orders.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped in March, despite a robust new export order reading.
- Firms are worried about tariff hikes and political risks, with the impeachment ruling due on Friday.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s official March PMIs showed lasting, though waning, stimulus support for activity.
- The manufacturing index is still above 50, but sentiment slipped ahead of likely US tariff hikes today.
- Construction new orders dived, raising questions about local-government investment activity.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI nudges up, but sentiment ebbs
Duncan WrigleyChina+
