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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.
Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.
China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.
The workshop of the world closed down in April
A bloodbath for retail sales
Zero-Covid restrictions prevented stimulus rollout
The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...
...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.
The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.
In one line: Monetary transmission broke down in April, echoing the broader economy
Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.
Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.
The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.
Food and energy underpin a greater-than-expected jump in consumer inflation
PPI disinflation slowed in April
Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...
...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.
The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.
Zero-Covid supports China’s trade balance for a little longer
Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.
Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.
Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.
An entirely expected spike in inflation
The Caixin Services PMI plummeted again in April, as the zero-Covid vice tightened further.
The employment picture is darkening rapidly, and will be a major worry for policymakers.
We are still waiting for a material shift in policy, even so; announcements so far contain nothing new.
No relief in sight for China's service sector
The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.
Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.
Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.
China weighs on Korean export growth...
…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI
Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment
The most disruptive outbreak since Wuhan weighs heavy on Chinese activity
The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.
Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.
In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy
The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation
Profits rose in March, thanks to a state sector bonanza fuelled by higher energy prices...
...But pressure on the private sector—manufacturing in particular—is building from multiple angles.
The stimulus offset to the costs of zero-Covid is still lacking, and the growth target must be in doubt.
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