Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 19 April 2024

In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: National CPI, Japan, March

In one line: Japan's inflation cools in March; the BoJ to stand pats next week

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

22 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's residential property sector still ailing despite funding support

  • The steep decline in China’s new residential sales eased only a tiny bit in March.
  • Developer funding is still under severe pressure; the 6,000-project whitelist offers limited help, so far.
  • China’s residential sector faces a grinding recovery, despite flickers of life in Shanghai’s luxury market.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Exports, Japan, March

In one line: Japanese exports grow sturdily in March, lifted by strong Chinese demand and a weak yen.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: BoK Decision, Korea, April

In one line: The BoK stays put as inflation remains elevated, no surprise to the market.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

18 April 2024 China+ Monitor Solid Japanese exports lifted by Chinese demand and a weak yen

  • Japan’s exports grew solidly in March, thanks to burgeoning Chinese demand and a weaker JPY.
  • Demand from the US and EU slowed, car-related shipments fell sharply, but chip exports soared.
  • The export recovery will be safeguarded by the ICT upturn, while capital goods demand should improve.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

17 April 2024 China+ Monitor Chinese GDP growth rises in Q1, but output is outpacing demand

  • China’s Q1 GDP growth picked up, thanks to robust industrial output and consumer services spending.
  • But a marked fall in industrial capacity utilisation points to burgeoning oversupply issues...
  • …Fiscal stimulus should boost demand to mitigate the oversupply, eventually; meanwhile, PPI deflation.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 April 2024: Chinese GDP beats expectations

Chinese GDP beats expectations, despite an uneven recovery and looming oversupply issues

Duncan WrigleyChina+

16 April 2024 China+ Monitor PBoC holds the MLF rate steady, despite lacklustre domestic demand

  • The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged yesterday, likely wary of currency pressure.
  • Social financing growth slowed in March, due to soft domestic demand and lower bond issuance.
  • Government-bond issuance is likely to pick up in Q2, the key plank of short-term growth support.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: MLF Rate, China, April

The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 April 2024: MLF rate unchanged

The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold, despite slowing credit growth

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, March

Disappointing credit data point to undercooked domestic demand, despite fiscal stimulus 

Duncan WrigleyChina+

15 April 2024 China+ Monitor China begins to flesh out its consumer goods trade-in plan

  • China’s marked fall in exports in March highlights the need to boost domestic demand.
  • After factoring out base effects and seasonality, exports are probably enjoying a modest rebound.
  • The equipment & consumer goods trade -in schemes should be significant, despite slow policymaking.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 April 2024

China consumer prices slow as producer deflation deepens

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: PPI, China, March

In one line: Producer price deflation deepens further, thanks to excess capacity

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

12 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's latest inflation prints underscore weak domestic demand

  • China’s inflation data point to lacklustre domestic demand post-New Year, while supply rose.
  • Core CPI dropped sharply to half its long-run average; industry is still facing deflationary pressure.
  • The US economy is steaming ahead, giving the PBoC
    a dilemma: lower rates or keep RMB stable.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

11 April 2024 China+ Monitor China's uneven recovery set to make only halting progress

  • China’s GDP growth should increase slightly in Q1 quarter-to-quarter, but severe imbalances persist.
  • A robust industrial sector contrasts with plunging new-property sales and flat consumption activity.
  • Policy support for consumer goods trade-ins and equipment upgrades should be incrementally helpful.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

China+ Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, March

In one line:  China forex reserves rose more than expected in March, thanks to stronger trade surplus and bond inflows.

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

8 April 2024 China+ Monitor BoK likely to sit tight until Q3, mindful of rising cost pressures

  • The BoK will probably hold the policy rate steady on Friday, amid stubborn inflation and KRW pressure.
  • The March manufacturing PMI points to sluggish domestic demand but rising cost pressures.
  • Exports are riding a firming rebound, thanks to high-end- chip demand related to AI.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

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