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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 16 MAY 2022: A brutal April for Chinese activity, thanks to zero-Covid

The workshop of the world closed down in April

A bloodbath for retail sales

Zero-Covid restrictions prevented stimulus rollout

Craig BothamChina+

16 May 2022 A Change of Tune from the PBoC Amidst a Slump in Lending

The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...

...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.

The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.

Craig BothamChina+

PM Datanote: Money and credit growth, China, April

In one line: Monetary transmission broke down in April, echoing the broader economy 

Craig BothamChina+

12 May 2022 Food is Driving Up Chinese Inflation, but the Core Rate is Falling

Chinese CPI inflation jumped in April, due to soaring food prices, but that will not worry the PBoC.

Zero-Covid has pushed up food prices, even as it depresses core inflation.

The PBoC has joined fiscal policymakers in making announcements with no new information.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 11 MAY 2022: Commodities and currency push Chinese CPI higher

Food and energy underpin a greater-than-expected jump in consumer inflation

PPI disinflation slowed in April

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 09 MAY 2022: Reality catches up with Chinese exports

Zero-Covid supports China’s trade balance for a little longer

Craig BothamChina+

9 May 2022 Above Target At Last, but the BoJ Still Won't be Satisfied

Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.

Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.

Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

6 May 2022 China's Labour Market is Under Increasing Pressure

The Caixin Services PMI plummeted again in April, as the zero-Covid vice tightened further.

The employment picture is darkening rapidly, and will be a major worry for policymakers.

We are still waiting for a material shift in policy, even so; announcements so far contain nothing new.

Craig BothamChina+

3 May 2022 Zero-Covid, Sub-Zero Growth, China's Economy Cratered in April

The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.

Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.

Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 02 MAY 2022: China weighs on regional activity

China weighs on Korean export growth...

…but domestic demand provides an offset in the PMI

Japanese manufacturing stumbles on weaker new orders and employment

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 30 APR 2022: Chinese PMIs Plunge in April

The most disruptive outbreak since Wuhan weighs heavy on Chinese activity

Craig BothamChina+

29 Apr 2022 The BoJ Fiddles While the Yen Burns, the MoF Readies the Hose

The BoJ shrugged off currency fears, keeping rates on hold and even leaning into YCC.

Acting as a sign of determination to keep rates capped, markets duly reacted by dumping the yen.

Japan’s Ministry of Finance reacted swiftly, and irritably; intervention now looms on the horizon.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: BoJ Press Conference, Japan, April

In one line: Cracks appear in the BoJ’s positive yen view, despite the renewed commitment to dovish policy

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 28 APR 2022: JPY takes a tumble as the BoJ holds the line

The BoJ doubles down on yield curve control, defying market speculation

Craig BothamChina+

28 Apr 2022 One Last Hurrah for Profit Growth, as the Zero-Covid Vice Tightens

Profits rose in March, thanks to a state sector bonanza fuelled by higher energy prices...

...But pressure on the private sector—manufacturing in particular—is building from multiple angles.

The stimulus offset to the costs of zero-Covid is still lacking, and the growth target must be in doubt.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence