Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
- Andy Burnham is extremely likely to become the next prime minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election.
- But a raft of U-turns even before he has reached Number 10 leave us with little sense of a ‘grand plan’.
- We see inflation risks, from either higher taxes and spending, or borrowing-funded spending.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
- Headline inflation has hit a three-year high, but we see few signs of increasing underlying pressures.
- The energy shock will lift core goods prices in the coming months, but shelter inflation will cool.
- Slowing wage growth suggests a sustained climb in inflation for core services ex-rent is unlikely.
- Brazil — Fiscal worries cap upside
- Mexico — Rally pauses as investors reassess risks
- Colombia — Elections dominate the equity story
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
- In one line: Inflation eased in May, but persistent services inflation will keep Banxico cautious.
In one line: Looking good for a Q2 rebound in manufacturing.
In one line: Shipments of integrated circuits and computers main drivers of export growth
Crude oil import volume falling
- US - Four notes of caution over the recent upturn in payrolls
- EUROZONE - ECB set to end year-long policy hiatus this week with a 25bp hike
- UK - Money and credit review: few signs of a hit to activity from Iran war
- CHINA+ - China tightens oversight of outbound investment and capital flows
- EM ASIA - War noise unlikely to stop Vietnam’s exports from flying higher in Q3
- LATAM - El Niño adds new inflation risks to LatAm, but hit differs widely
- The plunge in NFIB hiring intentions in May casts doubt over the recent turnaround in payrolls.
- Capex intentions also are very depressed, suggesting large parts of the economy are struggling.
- May’s jump in existing home sales probably is a false dawn: demand is too weak for a sustained recovery.
- Lower electricity tariffs and softer food prices pushed Mexico’s headline inflation back into target range.
- Persistent services inflation and housing costs continue to delay a sustained downward trend.
- Oil prices, USMCA uncertainty and El Niño keep inflation risks tilted upward.
- Taiwan’s exports destroyed calls for stable growth, soaring by 51.7% in May, despite the Iran war.
- We are upgrading our full-year GDP growth forecast to 9.6%, even higher than 2025’s pace.
- Inflation breached the CBC’s 2% “red line” in May, but we are still not expecting a discount rate hike.
- China’s May export growth surged on the back of chip exports, largely thanks to higher prices.
- Shipments to non-traditional markets are more than offsetting falling trade with the US.
- Oil import volumes dropped again, as refiners responded to crushed margins by curbing output.
- A leap in construction boosted German industry in April; core manufacturing is still lagging the surveys.
- Energy-intensive industry in Germany is rebounding, and relative PPI trends point to further gains.
- Nowcast models point to downside risk to German GDP growth in Q2, but it’s still early days.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in May after surveys deteriorated.
- The headline unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.0% in April.
- Wage inflation will continue to ease further into the MPC’s inflation-target-consistent range.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits hiring plans in May, but sentiment is likely better now than the REC suggests.
- The effective tariff rate has fallen sharply recently and pass-through to consumers likely is now complete.
- The lift to core PCE inflation from tariffs probably will fall to zero by early 2027, from about 0.6pp in April…
- …But the fresh shock from the war with Iran means core inflation will remain elevated this year.
