In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Still-robust export growth is driving the trade surplus to its highest in years.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
- The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
- We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- It’s a coin toss between EZ headline inflation at 2.1% or 2.0% in August, but what happened in the core?
- Early consumers’ spending data for July point to downside risks to growth in Q3.
- Germany’s labour market seems to be turning a corner, and ECB inflation expectations are elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Data in the past month have been hawkish: rising GDP, a recovering job market and strong inflation.
- We retain our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q3, matching the consensus estimate.
- Strong growth and sticky inflation mean we expect the MPC to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Tokyo inflation fall mainly due to energy subsidies
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Very mixed start to Philippine two-way trade at the start of Q3
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Recovering to a four-month high, with some help from base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Unwelcome rise in services selling price expectations.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Steady, and solid, growth in EZ money supply.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
