- The monthly inventories data show very little in the way of pre-tariff stockpiling in most industries...
- ...Consistent with trade data showing that the Q1 jump in imports was limited to a few specific goods.
- Mismeasurement of pharma inventories suggests Q1 GDP growth was underestimated by around 1pp.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The 20% drop in oil prices since early April probably will provide no real boost to the overall economy...
- ...the lift to consumers’ real incomes will be offset by weaker spending in energy-intensive areas.
- The ISM services prices index jumped in April, but other survey indicators suggest no cause for alarm.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Households stunned by the tariff shock.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Last week's jump in initial claims was entirely due to the timing of school holidays in New York state.
- Leading indicators, however, are continuing to deteriorate; layoffs in logistics are just a couple weeks off.
- The April ISM manufacturing survey points to a plunge in output and higher core goods prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The 0.3% drop in headline Q1 GDP exaggerates how rapidly the economy was slowing...
- ...Consumers' spending on services and non-equipment business investment kept rising in Q1.
- The tariff shock, however, will be much more intense in a few months' time; stagnation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- An unprecedented surge in the goods trade deficit in Q1 points to a huge drag on GDP growth.
- We think GDP fell by about 1%, but total private sector demand likely still rose at a healthy rate.
- The looser labor market points to much lower wage growth and underlying services inflation ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We expect GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, although big questions hang over net trade and inventories.
- GDP likely will broadly stagnate over the rest of this year, as tariffs hit real incomes and investment.
- Shortages of products made in China are unlikely to emerge in stores until July.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales likely to flatline at best from here.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales likely to drop back very soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Fear of a severe economic and market hit will dissuade President Trump from firing Chair Powell...
- ...But the president’s tariffs show he is willing to throw caution to the wind on economic policy.
- The S&P Global PMI likely will indicate higher goods inflation, but services inflation remaining in check.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
