Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)
Net trade on track for a big drag on headline GDP growth in Q1.
Core goods inflation unlikely to surge
- In one line: Core goods inflation unlikely to surge.
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
No sign of the labor market turning a corner.
- February’s solid retail sales likely were lifted by the weather and a short-lived boost from tax refunds.
- The underlying trend probably is still soft, and looks set to slow further amid the shock to energy prices.
- We think consumption growth of around 2% in Q1 will be followed by unchanged spending in Q2.
- February’s JOLTS report continues to paint a very weak picture of labor demand.
- The Conference Board survey’s job numbers also suggest payroll gains will remain very sluggish…
- …Putting further upward pressure on unemployment and undermining wage growth.
- February retail sales likely were boosted by a rebound in auto sales and the impact of higher gas prices.
- Sales likely also were boosted by bigger-than-usual tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- But the underlying trend in core sales is weak, and likely to step down further as the energy shock bites.
Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
- Calls that AI already justifies lower interest rates look ill-founded, given the limited productivity boost so far.
- AI might prove more disinflationary in the future, but the picture is highly uncertain.
- A faster “speed limit” for the economy seems more likely than much lower inflation and interest rates.
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.
Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.
Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.
In one line: Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4
