Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)
- In one line: The Construction PMI improves but signals falling activity, it will remain weak for some time.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Back-to-back rate cuts are likely as sentiment collapses, but accelerating inflation will keep MPC guidance cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Car registrations tank as duties increase.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to jump to 3.6% in April, from 2.6%, matching the MPC’s February forecast.
- Ofgem’s utility price hike, a massive water-bill increase, tax hikes and indexed prices drive the rise.
- Inflation will likely stay above 3% until January, despite recent falls in oil and natural gas prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Uncertainty hammered the PMI in April, suggesting a chance that UK GDP will fall in Q2.
- The MPC will retain some caution, however, as the PMI shows underlying inflation accelerating.
- Rate-setters can get away with a couple of precautionary rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in April as the rush to beat stamp duty increases unwinds, they will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
TARIFF SHOCK WORSENS WORST-CASE SCENARIO...
- …SO FASTER RATE CUTS LOOM
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate by 25bp next week, with two members favouring a 50bp reduction.
- The MPC will likely judge that lower market expectations for Bank Rate are mostly warranted.
- High uncertainty will sap growth, and a new disinflationary scenario should support faster rate cuts.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect the initial April payrolls estimate to show a fall of 30K month-to-month.
- LFS unemployment will likely tick up to 4.5% in March, and LFS employment should gain 166K.
- Pay growth remains strong; we expect private ex-bonus AWE to rise 0.3% month-to-month.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers' major purchases held up, but downside risks to the retail spending build.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Retail sales were heating up before President Trump’s tariffs upended the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The economy was growing solidly prior to tariffs, powered by consumers opening their wallets.
- Soft data are creaking, but they likely overstate economic weakness, the PMI in particular.
- A 50bp May rate cut is off the table, but we see a decent chance of 25bp reductions in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- A swathe of data on the labour market indicates that the job market is cooling, not cratering.
- But the balance of risks has shifted to a faster shake-out after President Trump’s tariffs.
- We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.1% in 2026 as the trade war dampens GDP growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:The public finances are weak heading into the trade war, difficult choices lay ahead for the Chancellor.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the resulting uncertainty have led the UK PMI to tank to its lowest since late 2022.
- Rising price pressures and the PMI’s overreaction to uncertainty mean the MPC will retain some caution.
- But downside growth risks mean we expect back-to-back, precautionary, rate cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Erratic computer games and hotel prices drag inflation down, headline inflation will still likely jump to 3.5% in April.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Enough softening for the MPC to cut, but strong wage growth will keep rate setters cautious.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices rise in February but property price inflation will ease in Q2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Retail sales continue to grow strongly but slowing global growth clouds the outlook.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
