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Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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The slowdown in the pace of core price rises in the Eurozone in November is a good omen for the U.K.
Inflation expectations among households and businesses are falling, now that a recession is taking hold.
Manufacturers’ and retailers’ excess inventory reinforces the case for expecting goods inflation to drop.
The U.K. continued to run a very large trade deficit in Q3, largely due to the surge in natural gas prices.
The evidence that Brexit is disrupting U.K. trade, meanwhile, is mounting, particularly in the services data.
These two factors mean the trade deficit is on course to be the largest since the 70s this year.
Households are saving more than usual, taking on less credit, and increasing ad-hoc mortgage repayments.
Firms also are choosing to delever; October’s net repayment of external finance was the second largest ever.
House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October; we expect them to fall further this winter.
Incoming data are consistent with our forecast for a sharp fall in house purchases and an 8% drop in prices.
The MPC, however, won’t keep Bank Rate at 4% indefinitely; house prices should rebound in the mid-2020s.
Mortgage payments’ share of incomes will not return to 2010s levels; hefty rent rises have raised the floor.
Sterling's rally has been driven by the elimination of the fiscal risk premium, which we doubt will return...
...But the current account deficit will remain large next year, despite the recession, leaving sterling vulnerable.
The MPC likely will hold back from raising Bank Rate as far as markets expect; we look for $1.15 in the spring.
Past recessions show a much shorter lag between falling GDP and employment than the OBR and BoE now expect.
Vacancy data likely provide false comfort; they didn't forewarn of declining employment in early 2008.
Survey measures of employment have fallen sharply; the big corporate financing shock points to layoffs.
Monetary And Fiscal Headwinds Look Set To Be Intense....Expect A 2% Peak-To-Trough Fall In GDP And No Revival Until 2024
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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence