U.K. Publications
Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- The Hit To The Economy From Omicron Will Be Fleeting....But Falling Real Incomes Will Constrain The Recovery
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- House price growth remained strong in Q4, despite the return of the SDLT threshold to £125K at the end of Q3.
- Timely indicators, however, suggest Omicron weighed on buyer demand at the end of the year, and in January.
- Higher mortgage rates and falling real incomes will cause house price growth to decelerate this year.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: The start of a gradual slowdown for house price growth.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Shaking off the SDLT threshold drop, but higher mortgage rates will weigh on growth this year.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Employment still rising, despite the end of furlough and the Omicron hit.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We are bringing forward our forecast for the next two increases in Bank Rate, following December's CPI data.
- While food, energy and goods prices are mainly to blame for high inflation, services inflation has risen too.
- CPI inflation, however, will fall sharply in H2 and should be below target in 2023, curtailing the hiking cycle.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Employment has continued to rise, despite the withdrawal of the furlough scheme and the Omicron hit...
- ...But growth will slow soon; few people who want a job don't have one, while employment taxes will rise in April.
- Wage growth has cooled, despite the tight job market; real wages look set to fall sharply this year.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The Tories now trail Labour by 10pp in the polls; a no-confidence vote in Johnson is a growing possibility.
- Markets probably would prefer a more predictable successor who had a less combative Brexit stance...
- ...But the gap between the Tories and Labour on economic policy has narrowed.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- GDP surpassed its pre-Covid level in November, albeit with support from some unsustainable sources.
- Omicron has temporarily set the economy back, but GDP should return to November's level by March.
- Thereafter, however, GDP growth likely will be slow, due to the squeeze on households' disposable incomes.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Surging energy prices cause the underlying trade deficit to widen.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Decent progress likely undone subsequently by Omicron.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- CPI inflation probably was unchanged at 5.1% in December, giving the MPC some breathing space.
- Pick-ups in food and used car price inflation likely were offset by falls in the tobacco and clothing components.
- The seasonal surge in plane ticket prices will boost the CPI less than usual, because its weight has shrunk.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- The proportion of workers changing jobs surged in 2021 to reach its highest level in the past 20 years...
- ...But lower confidence and a sluggish housing market will drive job moves back to pre-Covid norms this year.
- Job-to-job moves also will trend down in the 2020s as the population ages, bearing down on wage growth.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- Omicron cases have peaked and hospital admissions will too soon, at only half their January 2021 peak.
- We now expect Plan B rules to expire on January 26, rather than be extended for another month...
- ...So we are revising up our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from zero.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Payback for earlier than usual Christmas gift buying.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Investors expect U.K. official rates to rise by 98bp this year, exceeding the 86bp anticipated rise in the U.S.
- U.K. households, however, are less well-placed than those in the U.S. to withstand higher rates.
- The MPC will switch to QT before the Fed, while membership changes will strengthen the doves' hands.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- We think that GDP increased by about 0.6% month-to-month in November, above the 0.4% consensus.
- Easing supply-chain blockages seem to have facilitat- ed pick-ups in manufacturing and construction output.
- Growth in services output was supported by increas- es in retail sales, transport usage and vaccinations.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- In one line: Supply shortages are continuing to ease, bearing down on input price inflation.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
- Near-real-time indicators are broadly consistent with our forecast that GDP fell by 0.6% m/m in December.
- OpenTable/CHAPS data signal weak pre-Christmas trading for hospitality; transport usage dipped too.
- Omicron cases, however, should fall substantially by February, enabling GDP to begin rising again.
Gabriella DickensU.K.
- In one line: Omicron weighed heavily on consumer services in December.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.
