Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

January 2022 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

  • The Hit To The Economy From Omicron Will Be Fleeting....But Falling Real Incomes Will Constrain The Recovery

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Jan 2022 House Price Growth to Slow in 2022 as Mortgage Rates Rise

  • House price growth remained strong in Q4, despite the return of the SDLT threshold to £125K at the end of Q3.
  • Timely indicators, however, suggest Omicron weighed on buyer demand at the end of the year, and in January.
  • Higher mortgage rates and falling real incomes will cause house price growth to decelerate this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December 2021

  • In one line: The start of a gradual slowdown for house price growth. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November 2021

  • In one line: Shaking off the SDLT threshold drop, but higher mortgage rates will weigh on growth this year. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November/December 2021

  • In one line: Employment still rising, despite the end of furlough and the Omicron hit. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Jan 2022 The MPC will React Immediately to December's Blowout CPI Figure

  • We are bringing forward our forecast for the next two increases in Bank Rate, following December's CPI data.
  • While food, energy and goods prices are mainly to blame for high inflation, services inflation has risen too.
  • CPI inflation, however, will fall sharply in H2 and should be below target in 2023, curtailing the hiking cycle.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 Jan 2022 How Much Longer Will the Employment Miracle Last?

  • Employment has continued to rise, despite the withdrawal of the furlough scheme and the Omicron hit...
  • ...But growth will slow soon; few people who want a job don't have one, while employment taxes will rise in April.
  • Wage growth has cooled, despite the tight job market; real wages look set to fall sharply this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

18 Jan 2022 Markets and Economy Likely to be Little Moved if Mr. Johnson is Ousted

  • The Tories now trail Labour by 10pp in the polls; a no-confidence vote in Johnson is a growing possibility.
  • Markets probably would prefer a more predictable successor who had a less combative Brexit stance...
  • ...But the gap between the Tories and Labour on economic policy has narrowed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Jan 2022 The Recovery is Over; Now Comes the Hard Part

  • GDP surpassed its pre-Covid level in November, albeit with support from some unsustainable sources.
  • Omicron has temporarily set the economy back, but GDP should return to November's level by March.
  • Thereafter, however, GDP growth likely will be slow, due to the squeeze on households' disposable incomes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, November 2021

  • In one line: Surging energy prices cause the underlying trade deficit to widen. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November 2021

  • In one line: Decent progress likely undone subsequently by Omicron.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Jan 2022 CPI inflation Likely was Stable in December, to the MPC's Relief

  • CPI inflation probably was unchanged at 5.1% in December, giving the MPC some breathing space.
  • Pick-ups in food and used car price inflation likely were offset by falls in the tobacco and clothing components.
  • The seasonal surge in plane ticket prices will boost the CPI less than usual, because its weight has shrunk.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Jan 2022 Job Moves to Revert to Normal Levels this Year, Dampening Wage Growth

  • The proportion of workers changing jobs surged in 2021 to reach its highest level in the past 20 years...
  • ...But lower confidence and a sluggish housing market will drive job moves back to pre-Covid norms this year.
  • Job-to-job moves also will trend down in the 2020s as the population ages, bearing down on wage growth.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

12 Jan 2022 The Omicron Peak has Passed, Teeing up GDP to Rebound in February

  • Omicron cases have peaked and hospital admissions will too soon, at only half their January 2021 peak.
  • We now expect Plan B rules to expire on January 26, rather than be extended for another month...
  • ...So we are revising up our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from zero.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, December 2021

  • In one line: Payback for earlier than usual Christmas gift buying.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

11 Jan 2022 The MPC won't Match the U.S. Fed's Rate Hiking Pace This Year

  • Investors expect U.K. official rates to rise by 98bp this year, exceeding the 86bp anticipated rise in the U.S.
  • U.K. households, however, are less well-placed than those in the U.S. to withstand higher rates.
  • The MPC will switch to QT before the Fed, while membership  changes will strengthen the doves' hands.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Jan 2022 Above-Consensus November GDP Data Unlikely to Spur on the MPC

  • We think that GDP increased by about 0.6% month-to-month in November, above the 0.4% consensus.
  • Easing supply-chain blockages seem to have facilitat- ed pick-ups in manufacturing and construction output.
  • Growth in services output was supported by increas- es in retail sales, transport usage and vaccinations.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Construction Survey, December 2021

  • In one line: Supply shortages are continuing to ease, bearing down on input price inflation. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

7 Jan 2022 Timely Indicators are Consistent with a Drop in GDP in December

  • Near-real-time indicators are broadly consistent with our forecast that GDP fell by 0.6% m/m in December.
  • OpenTable/CHAPS data signal weak pre-Christmas trading for hospitality; transport usage dipped too.
  • Omicron cases, however, should fall substantially by February, enabling GDP to begin rising again.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Services Survey, December 2021

  • In one line: Omicron weighed heavily on consumer services in December.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.K. Documents

U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence