Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, November 2023

  • In one line: Manufacturing output is being hit by retailers running down their inventories.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November 2023

  • In one line: Don’t get too excited about the prospect of a sustained recovery just yet,  

Gabriella DickensU.K.

1 December 2023 UK Monitor Forecast Review: Slowing Price and Wage Growth Bring Rate Cuts into View

  • The latest data add weight to our view that a recession will be avoided and Bank Rate will start to fall from Q2.
  • GDP looks set to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q4, with a recovery in real incomes driving household spending.
  • The Autumn Statement has done little to change our forecasts, we still expect fiscal consolidation in 2024/25.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, October 2023

  • In one line: Households remain focussed on repaying debt and replenishing their savings, but we doubt they will become even more cautious ahead. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 November 2023 UK Monitor Money and Credit Data Signal Households Remain Cautious, For Now

  • Households made another net repayment of mortgage debt in October; expect more of the same this winter.
  • September’s rise in the household saving rate was sustained in October, but we don’t expect a further increase.
  • Many households have now regained the savings buffer they lost in 2022; unsecured borrowing has scope to rise.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 November 2023 UK Monitor Will Productivity Growth Improve on Its Sluggish 2010s Pace?

  • The OBR expects growth in output per hour of 1.0% y/y over the next five years, above the 2010s average, 0.7%...
  • ...But it has averaged 0.5% since 2019, and that assumes employment has risen as slowly as the LFS implies.
  • Productivity in the manufacturing sector will eventually snap back, but a wider acceleration isn’t likely.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

November 2023 - U.K. Chartbook

LARGE FISCAL SQUEEZE STILL PLANNED FOR 2024...

  • ...INFLATION WILL FALL FURTHER, TEEING UP A MAY RATE CUT

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 November 2023 UK Monitor Will Next Year's Near-10% Increase in the National Living Wage Fuel Inflation?

  • Most supermarkets can raise wages by just 4% in 2024 and remain compliant with the National Living Wage...
  • ...They no longer need to pay staff a larger-than-usual premium over the NLW, given the rise in unemployment.
  • Firms told the Low Pay Commission they doubt they will pass on higher labour costs in 2024 as much as in 2023.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GfK Consumer's Confidence Survey, November

  • In one line: A rebound in real incomes will drive a recovery in confidence.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November 2023

  • In one line: Further reassurance a recession isn’t developing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 November 2023 UK Monitor Recovery in Households' Spending Back on Track Soon

  • Household disposable income will receive a 0.6pp boost from tax and benefit changes in the 2024/25 fiscal year.
  • The drag on disposable income growth from mortgage refinancing looks set to halve in 2024.
  • Many households intend to save more, but saving already is higher than normal; real spending will pick up next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

24 November 2023 UK Monitor November's PMI Quells Worries a Recession Is Brewing

  • The composite PMI edged above 50 in November, for the first time since July; consumer demand is reviving...
  • ...Firms, however, are still reducing employment slightly, and output prices are rising more slowly than a year ago.
  • By May, the labour market will have loosened and CPI inflation fallen enough for the MPC to start to cut rates.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Autumn Statement 2023

  • In one line: No major pre-election giveaways; the course is clear for the MPC to cut Bank Rate next year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, November

  • In one line: The Q3 recovery in manufacturing output looks set to reverse. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

23 November 2023 UK Monitor Autumn Statement Tax Cuts Won't Stop the MPC Cutting Rates Next Year

  • The OBR judges the Autumn Statement measures lift aggregate demand relative to supply by 0.1% at most.
  • Fiscal policy remains set to be tightened substantially next year, almost as much as previously planned.
  • Mr. Hunt might cut more taxes in March, but the rise in gilt yields after his NI announcement will instil caution.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October 2023

  • In one line: A timely reminder that considerable further fiscal consolidation is needed.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 November 2023 UK Monitor Fiscal Policy Still Likely to Dampen GDP Growth in 2024, Despite Tax Tweaks

  • Public borrowing in October exceeded the OBR’s March Budget forecast for the first time this year.
  • Revisions by the OBR to its economic assumptions likely will not lower the borrowing forecast materially.
  • Mr. Hunt’s fiscal rules don’t rule out tax cuts, but he likely will delay most until after the election to buy some votes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

November 2023 - U.K. Housing Watch

MORTGAGE RATES TO FALL FASTER THAN WE EXPECTED IN Q1...

  • ...WE NOW FORESEE A 5%, NOT 6%, PEAK-TO-TROUGH FALL IN PRICES

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 November 2023 UK Monitor Consumer Prices Have Almost Fully Adjusted to Higher Energy Prices

  • On Thursday, Ofgem will likely announce that consumer electricity and natural gas prices will rise modestly in Q1.
  • Businesses have essentially finished passing on higher energy costs to customers...
  • ...Many have locked in high wholesale prices but can still slow the rate of price rises over the coming months.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, October

  • In one line: We expect a recovery in the coming months, driven by a rebound in real incomes. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence