Pantheon Macroeconomics

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UK Publications

Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, March 2024

  • In one line: Disappointing in March but retail will still boost Q1 GDP.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

22 April 2024 UK Monitor Retail sales set to improve from recent stagnation

  • Retail sales ended Q1 with a whimper, stagnating in March as department-store sales tanked.
  • Look through the month-to-month volatility though, and retail sales growth is trending up.
  • We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, after Governor Bailey downplayed the inflation miss.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

19 April 2024 UK Monitor Business investment set to grow as interest rates decline

  • Brexit, demand uncertainty, staff shortages and high interest rates have held back business investment.
  • All of these drags should ease, with staff shortages falling and the MPC likely to cut rates this summer.
  • Firms’ investment intentions point to 1.5% year-over- year capex growth, an upside risk to our forecast.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

18 April 2024 UK Monitor Inflation surprise cannot be dismissed as Easter volatility

  • Headline and services inflation overshot the MPC’s forecast by 0.1pp and 0.2pp, respectively…
  • …Reflecting stronger-than-expected underlying price pressures, not the impact of an early Easter.We still expect the MPC to cut Bank Rate in June, but are very close to delaying that first cut to August.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

17 April 2024 UK Monitor A warning from falling jobs, but wages to keep MPC cautious

  • The MPC will note the sharp employment drop, which suggests a risk the labour market is loosening quickly.
  • But the headline jobs data are ropey, and surveys point to employment slowly rising.
  • The MPC will focus more on stronger-than-expected pay, which suggests June is the earliest for a rate cut.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

16 April 2024 UK Monitor Bernanke review a missed opportunity for the BoE

  • Ben Bernanke’s review of BoE forecasting makes detailed modelling recommendations.
  • But it gives wide latitude on how to use scenarios and does not recommend publishing a policy rate path.
  • Nothing new for markets near term; in the medium term, changes are still open to debate.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, February 2024

  • In one line: Trade deficit little changed in February, but will improve this year.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, February 2024

  • In one line: GDP is on track for 0.4% quarter-to-quarter growth in Q1, beating MPC forecasts.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

15 April 2024 UK Monitor GDP has already recovered from last year's recession

  • We raise our growth forecast, and now expect a 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP gain in Q1.
  • Returning growth won’t stop the MPC cutting rates but will keep it to a one-cut-per-quarter pace.
  • The MPC switching to scenarios, from fan charts, post Bernanke Review likely matters little to markets.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK RICS Residential Market Survey, March 2024

  • In one line: Building hopes of rate cuts boost buyer demand and house prices. 

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

12 April 2024 UK Monitor The MPC can cut before the Fed, but it will have to be careful

  • UK interest rates have followed the US in most major cycles since the mid-1970s.
  • Exceptions to this when the economies have diverged mean the MPC can cut rates in June as inflation slows.
  • The MPC will be cautious about the pace of cuts, given sticky services inflation and to avoid GBP falling.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

11 April 2024 UK Monitor CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March despite Easter boost

  • CPI inflation likely fell to 3.0% in March, from 3.4% in February, 0.1pp weaker than the MPC forecast.
  • The early-Easter boost probably led to servicesinflation of 5.9%, 0.1pp above the MPC’s forecast.
  • Services inflation should drop sharply to 5.2% in April as those Easter effects unwind.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK BRC Retail Sales, March 2024

  • In one line: Early easter boosts March retail sales, growth will slow in April.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

10 April 2024 UK Monitor Retail sales growth to strengthen as wages rise and inflation falls

  • ‘Easter-adjusted’ BRC retail sales probably rose 1.2% year-over-year in March, similar to February.
  • We expect a 0.3% month-to-month increase in official retail sales volumes in March.
  • Retail volumes will continue rising after March as real income increases and relative goods prices fall.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

9 April 2024 UK Monitor Labour market preview: pay slowing more than MPC expects

  • We look for PAYE employment to rise by 30K in March and the unemployment rate to stay at 3.9%.
  • We expect a 0.3% month-to-month rise in average weekly earnings ex bonuses in February...
  • ... Leaving year-over-year wage growth on track to undershoot the MPC’s Q1 forecast.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK Report on Jobs Survey, March 2023

  • In one line: Report on Jobs survey says it’s time to cut rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: Construction PMI, March 2024

  • In one line: Expected interest rate cuts prove to be an effective tonic for construction.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: UK final services and composite PMI, March 2024

  • In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast and services inflation easing.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, March 2024

  • In one line: Weak private car sales suggest consumer caution.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

8 April 2024 UK Monitor Forecast Review: MPC has the confidence to cut, gradually

  • We expect quarter-to-quarter GDP growth to average 0.3% this year, driven by rising household real income.
  • Energy-price cuts will pull inflation below 2% in Q2; sticky services will return inflation above 2% in Q4.
  • We expect the MPC gradually to ease its restrictive policy, with the first cut in June and 75bp total in 2024.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence