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The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.
High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.
Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.
CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.
BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...
...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.
Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.
Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.
Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.
The LFS measure of employment was essentially unchanged in Q1, despite the strength implied by surveys.
But the unemployment rate probably fell to a 47-year low of 3.7%, due to a contraction in the workforce.
Headline wage growth likely edged up, but remained well below CPI inflation; this gap will persist.
Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.
Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.
Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.
Monthly payments will jump by about £100 for most households who refinance mortgages this year.
Mortgage approvals will fall sharply in the second half of this year in response to higher rates.
But house prices likely will stabilise, not fall; the supply of homes coming to the market will contract too.
The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.
Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.
Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.
At least two MPC members now think Bank Rate does not need to rise any further in the near term.
The MPC’s three-year ahead forecast for inflation, based on market rates, is its lowest for over 13 years.
Markets’ rate expectations fell yesterday, but they still look too high in light of the MPC's new projections.
Households must save less—or borrow more—to the tune of £9B in Q2, in order for real spending not to fall.
That is possible, given that "excess savings" are £186B and consumer credit is £25B below its peak.
But people didn't draw on savings in March and still are reluctant to borrow, so GDP looks set to dip in Q2.
Sterling fell by 2% on a trade-weighted basis in April; investors are increasingly betting on a further fall.
The MPC can't be indifferent to sterling; depreciations impart a large and long-lasting boost to inflation.
But sterling's recent insensitivity to changes in rate expectations implies it can hike Bank Rate "modestly".
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