UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Happy days as growth improves and inflation slows; the MPC could welcome the news with another cut in August.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Rebounding employment expectations suggest inflation pressure will remain stubborn.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: June’s downward revisions to the PMI’s sub-indices were likely driven by oil prices, sentiment will continue to improve.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Falling saving flows and rising corporate borrowing point to solid economic growth.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in June but returning buyer demand will push up prices soon.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Better balanced growth after revisions bodes well.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
HOUSE PRICES COLLAPSE IN APRIL...
- ...BUT THE RECOVERY IS ALREADY UNDERWAY
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- U-turns scorch the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom, and appetite for corrective action seems limited.
- We expect ‘stealth tax’ hikes, some of which boost inflation, and a fudge of the fiscal rules in the Budget.
- The PMI and DMP show better growth and slower inflation, but we expect only one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
WEAK JOBS PUSHING THE MPC TO AN AUGUST CUT...
- …BUT ONLY ONE MORE CUT THIS YEAR IS THE RIGHT CALL
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect GDP to rise 0.1% month-to-month in May, as professional services activity rebounds.
- We still look for quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.2% in Q2, below the MPC’s latest projection, 0.3%.
- We remain upbeat on underlying growth, partly supporting our call for just one more rate cut in 2025.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- We expect CPI inflation to tick up to 3.5% in June from 3.4% in May, 0.1pp higher than the MPC expects.
- Surging food prices—the biggest three-month rise in two years—and motor fuel base effects boost inflation.
- Hot weather and a likely late CPI collection date pose upside risks to clothes prices.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- An upward revision to Q1 consumer spending growth gives a more solid base to economic growth.
- The household saving rate dip in Q1 is a sign of things to come, which should support consumer spending.
- Firms are borrowing again as all the “Liberation Day” surge in economic policy uncertainty has unwound.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- We cut our Q2 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter from 0.3% previously, after soft data.
- Energy prices nudge up our inflation forecasts; we see CPI inflation peaking at 3.7% in September.
- We see payrolls and GDP rebounding, which keeps us expecting only one more rate cut this year.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Manufacturing orders fall in June but the worst of the tariff-induced slowdown appears over.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- Official payroll data are vastly exaggerating the weakness in the job market, in our view.
- May’s payrolls reading is especially unreliable, while the official data have diverged hugely from surveys.
- Job vacancies seem to be stabilising, redundancies are low and jobless claims are down since October.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Collapsing payrolls in May look inconsistent with stable or improving survey-based measures of jobs.
- The soft data suggest the worst of the slowdown caused by the payroll-tax hike is behind us.
- Stable economic growth, driven by less trade-related uncertainty, will give a hawkish tint to the job data.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: House prices fall in April, but the market will recover quickly.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: ONS vehicle duty correction cuts inflation, news was small, inflation pressures remain sticky.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:Public finances deteriorate in May, tax-hike speculation to mount over the summer.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Consumers’ confidence inches up, but it will be tested over the summer.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
