Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March/April 2022

  • In one line: No need for the MPC to panic about wage growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 May 2022 The Trade Deficit will Remain Large, Casting a Shadow Over Sterling

The trade deficit, excluding erratics, jumped to a recordhigh in March, largely due to the surge in energy prices.

High energy prices, surging imports of travel services and weak export growth will keep the deficit wide.

Governor Bailey is showing no signs of buckling to pressure from MPs for faster rate hikes to tame inflation.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 May 2022 Net Upside Risk to the MPC's 9.1% Forecast for April CPI Inflation

CPI inflation likely soared to 9.2% in April, from 7.0% in March, largely due to the jump in the energy price cap.

BRC data are consistent with another large rise in core goods prices, while services prices likely shot up too...

...In response to the hospitality VAT hike, big increases in phone contract prices, and an Easter boost to airfares.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 May 2022 Brisk Quarterly GDP Growth Masks a Slowdown during Q1

Q1 GDP grew faster in the U.K. than overseas because consumers were shielded from higher energy prices.

Monthly data show growth slowed during Q1; falling retail sales were more than just a consumer rotation.

Falling real incomes, declining health spending and the extra bank holiday will reduce GDP in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, March 2022

  • In one line: Another substantial underlying deficit, due to high energy prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, March & Q1 2022

  • In one line: The last quarter of strong growth.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

12 May 2022 Negligible Employment Growth in Q1, Despite Strong Surveys?

The LFS measure of employment was essentially unchanged in Q1, despite the strength implied by surveys.

But the unemployment rate probably fell to a 47-year low of 3.7%, due to a contraction in the workforce.

Headline wage growth likely edged up, but remained well below CPI inflation; this gap will persist.

Gabriella DickensU.K.

11 May 2022 Fresh Measures to Support Households are Coming Soon

Local election results imply the Tories are not on track to win in 2024, unless they turn the economy around.

Currently planned measures to support households in July and October are too small to move the dial.

Bringing forward April 2023's inflation-linked rise in benefits to October would be simple and well-targeted.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2022

  • In one line: Dropping again, as households tighten their purse strings.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 May Will Rising Mortgage Rates Push House Prices Down?

Monthly payments will jump by about £100 for most households who refinance mortgages this year.

Mortgage approvals will fall sharply in the second half of this year in response to higher rates.

But house prices likely will stabilise, not fall; the supply of homes coming to the market will contract too.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Output growth slowing, as sharp price rises take a toll on demand. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 May 2022 GDP Likely was Unchanged in March, Preluding a Contraction in Q2

The boost to activity from the removal of final Covid restrictions likely was offset by falling health sector output.

Higher energy prices and fresh supply chain frictions, following the war in Ukraine, likely hit manufacturing.

Retail sales and car sales fell, while the recovery in the hospitality sector appears to have topped out.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

6 May 2022 New Forecasts Imply the MPC Intends Only One-to-Two More 25bp Hikes

At least two MPC members now think Bank Rate does not need to rise any further in the near term.

The MPC’s three-year ahead forecast for inflation, based on market rates, is its lowest for over 13 years.

Markets’ rate expectations fell yesterday, but they still look too high in light of the MPC's new projections.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, May

  • In one line: Still signalling a much smaller further rise in Bank Rate than markets expect.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, April 2022

  • In one line: Private car sales remain under pressure from the intensifying squeeze on real disposable incomes. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit/CIPS Services Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Overstating the likely rate of GDP growth in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

5 May 2022 Households are Showing Little Sign of Riding out the Real Income Shock

Households must save less—or borrow more—to the tune of £9B in Q2, in order for real spending not to fall. 

That is possible, given that "excess savings" are £186B and consumer credit is £25B below its peak.

But people didn't draw on savings in March and still are reluctant to borrow, so GDP looks set to dip in Q2.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

4 May 2022 Will Sterling Derail the MPC's Plans for "Modest" Tightening?

Sterling fell by 2% on a trade-weighted basis in April; investors are increasingly betting on a further fall.

The MPC can't be indifferent to sterling; depreciations impart a large and long-lasting boost to inflation.

But sterling's recent insensitivity to changes in rate expectations implies it can hike Bank Rate "modestly".

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, April 2022

  • In one line: Price pressures are weighing on business confidence. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence