Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

23 Mar 2023 UK Monitor

  • February's pick-up in CPI inflation was driven partly by
    a jump in food prices, linked to bad weather in Europe...
  • ...The MPC's measure of core services CPI inflation
    rose too, but was lower than it expected last month.
  • The near-term outlook for CPI inflation has improved
    since the MPC last met, thanks to lower energy prices.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March

  • In one line: Producers are slowing price rises in the face of weak demand.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February 2023

  • In one line: Core services CPI inflation is still tracking a lower path than the MPC anticipated.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Public Borrowing will Stabilise at 4% of GDP in the Medium Term

  • The OBR's productivity growth forecast still is too upbeat; we think GDP in 27/28 will be 1.6% lower than it expects.
  • While slower growth points to lower interest rates than the OBR assumes, borrowing would be higher on net.
  • Plans for a fiscal consolidation of nearly 4% of GDP aren't credible, given past U-turns and the upcoming election.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February 2023

  • In one line: OBR’s full-year borrowing forecast is in the right ball park, despite February's jump. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 Mar 2023 UK Monitor How Serious is the Risk of Deposit Flight from U.K. Banks?

  • Short-dated gilts now offer a higher return than bank deposits, with a 100% guarantee from the government.
  • CFOs used to park a higher share of their cash in gilts and money market funds; a rebalancing now looks likely.
  • Deposit rates will rise unless deposit insurance become more comprehensive, raising the cost of new borrowing.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Markets Right to See a No-Change MPC Vote as the Most Likely Outcome

  • Financial conditions have tightened, reinforcing the case made by economic data for the MPC to pause.
  • Both core CPI inflation and private-sector wages have surprised the MPC's expectations to the downside.
  • Most of the Budget measures focussed on boosting potential supply, while inflation expectations have fallen.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

17 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Are Growing Concerns About U.K. Banks Well Grounded?

  • U.K. banks in aggregate are not highly exposed to a decline in the value of fixed-income securities, unlike SVB.
  • U.K. deposit insurance looks inadequate after the Covid savings surge, but could be increased quickly in a crisis.
  • Redundancy notifications now are tracking a higher path than in early 2021; employment is flatlining at best.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

16 Mar 2023 UK Monitor No Need for the MPC to Respond to this Supply-Side Focussed Budget

  • The Chancellor wisely made supply-side reforms, rather than demand stimulus, the centrepiece of this Budget.
  • Even the small measures to support households’ incomes will lead to a faster-than-otherwise fall in inflation.
  • The MPC, therefore, needn’t lean against the slight loosening of the fiscal plans.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Spring Budget

  • In one line: No need for the MPC to counter fiscal easing focussed on supply-side reforms. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

15 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Is the Sharp Slowing in WageGrowth Just an Aberration?

  • Private-sector pay rose at a month-to-month annualised rate of just 2.0% in December and 1.2% in January.
  • The recent slowdown has been echoed by the PAYE data, and can’t be explained by recent strike action.
  • Firms now report recruiting is no tougher than usual; inactive people wanting to work are more numerous.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January/February 2023

  • In one line: The clear slowdown in wage growth strengthens the case for an MPC pause.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

14 Mar 2023 UK Monitor CPI Inflation Likely Fell in February, in Line with the MPC's Forecast

  • We think CPI inflation fell to 9.9% in February, from 10.1% in January, matching the MPC’s forecast.
  • A surge in the core CPI, after January’s tiny rise, is unlikely; fewer items than usual were temporarily discounted.
  • BRC data point to a modest rise in core goods prices in February; services price indicators have eased too.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

13 Mar 2023 UK Monitor A Q1 Drop in GDP Remains on the Cards, Despite January's Recovery

  • January’s rise in GDP was driven by rebounds in three sectors that were disrupted in December.
  • The level of GDP was 0.04% below its Q4 average; a shallow recession remains our base case.
  • Business surveys picked up in February, but they likely overstate GDP growth, given the public sector strikes.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. International Trade, January 2023

  • In one line: The overall trade deficit likely will continue to narrow this year. 

Gabriella DickensU.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January

  • In one line: Quarterly GDP still likely to drop in Q1, despite January’s rebound. 

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

10 Mar 2023 UK Monitor Too Soon to Call the Bottom in House Prices

  • House purchase demand still is weaker than supply, maintaining the downward pressure on house prices.
  • Mortgage rates likely will rise over the next month, worsening affordability issues.
  • Expectations of further price falls are widespread; many potential buyers will wait for larger discounts.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

9 Mar 2023 UK Monitor January Labour Data to Sustain Chances the MPC Pauses this Month

  • Surveys point to broadly flat employment and a substantial improvement in labour availability since mid-2022.
  • December's slow month-to-month rise in private-sector wages likely was partly due to short-lived strikes...
  • ...But on balance, surveys suggest that wage increases have slowed a little since last autumn.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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U.K. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence