Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.K. Publications

Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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3 Aug 2021 When will the Manufacturing Sector's Recovery Get Back on Track?

The recovery in the manufacturing sector slowed in July, probably to a complete standstill. Output should pick up in the autumn, amid easing supply constraints and...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

2 Aug 2021 Rising Covid-19 Cases Temporarily Slowed the Recovery in July

The ONS' Business Impact of Covid-19 survey suggests business turnover has flatlined since late May. The disruption caused by the "pingdemic" wors- ened in late July, but...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

30 July 2021 June's Money Data Point to Increased Consumer Caution

The slowdown in consumer credit gross lending in June suggests monthly GDP growth slowed. Households remained cautious; last month liquid assets increased at a faster rate than...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

29 July 2021 Strong Pushback from the MPC's Doves Suggests QE will Roll on

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years... ...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, July 2021

In one line: House price growth probably now has peaked.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

28 July 2021 Brexit is Limiting Trade and will be a Key Constraint on the Recovery

On the face of it, May's trade data suggest Brexit's adverse impact has faded considerably... ...But the U.K. is not benefiting from the global upswing in trade to the same...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

27 July 2021 Expect a Quicker than Usual Recovery in Capex This Time Around

April, brexit, business investment, businesses, capex, capex plans, cash, cbi, cbi industrial trends survey, easing, economy, equipment, equipment investment, financial...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

26 July 2021 July's PMI Data Embellish the Picture of a Slowing Recovery

The larger-than-consensus fall in the composite PMI adds to evidence that the recovery is slowing. The disruption caused by Covid-19 cases is only part of the story; a weaker...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2021

In one line: Slowdown message chimes with other indicators.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, June 2021

In one line: A temporary lift from Euro 2020; timelier data point to easing consumers' spending.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

July 2021 - U.K. Economic Chartbook*

The Recovery Has Stalled, Temporarily, Due To Covid...Fiscal And Brexit Headwinds Will Limit The Upswing In 2022

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

23 July 2021 The Peak for Covid-19 Cases is Within Sight

Growth in new Covid-19 cases has eased in recent days, bringing hope that infections will top out well below the 100K-a-day level forewarned by the new Health Secretary...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July / Q3 2021

In one line: Demand still strong, but producers are struggling to keep up.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

22 July 2021 Tax Rises Still will be Needed for a 3% Budget Deficit

We continue to think that the government will need to press ahead with its planned fiscal tightening over the next two years, if it wants to ensure that borrowing drops to 3%...

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, June 2021

In one line: Still undershooting the OBR's forecast, but the margin of improvement will narrow later this year.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

21 July 2021 Amazon Prime Day Likely Launched Retail Sales to New Heights in June

We're sticking our neck out with our forecast that the official measure of retail sales volumes rose by 1.5% month-to-month in June, thereby narrowly reaching a new record high.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

20 July 2021 Covid's Third Wave has Stopped the Recovery Temporarily in its Tracks

Many indicators suggest that the economic recovery is stalling in the face of the third wave of Covid-19.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

19 July 2021 Inflation Data to Force Early End to QE, but a 2022 Rate Hike isn't Likely

We now expect the MPC to end its gilt purchases immediately at next month's meeting, following last week's consumer prices data.

Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)U.K.

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