Below is a list of our U.K. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- The OBR likely will revise up its forecast for debt interest payments in 2022/23 by nearly 1% of GDP.
- Interest payments will be boosted by the outlook for high inflation and markets' expectations for rate hikes.
- The MPC's plans to shrink the APF will mean more debt is financed at prevailing gilt rates, not Bank Rate.
- In one line: Prices still rising, despite the end of the SDLT holiday.
- August's 0.4% m/m rise in GDP sets it up for a 1.5% q/q rise in Q3, below the 2.1% expected by the MPC.
- Health sector output probably rebounded in September, but the "staycationing" boost likely faded.
- We're lowering our Q4 GDP forecast to 1.0% q/q, from 1.2%; fiscal, fuel and energy headwinds are strong.
- In one line: Brexit and Covid-19 still weighing on U.K. trade.
- In one line: The recovery remains much more sluggish than the MPC anticipated.
- The labour market continued to tighten in Q3, but employment and hours still were below their potential.
- Labour supply likely has increased much more than labour demand in Q4, now that the CJRS has ended.
- Unit wage costs were kept in check by a productivity rebound; rising labour supply will cool wage growth in Q4.
- In one line: Not strong enough for the MPC to hike rates in November, before it has assessed the post-furlough landscape.
- In one line: Collateral damage from the fuel shortages.
- Markets see a 50% chance of the MPC hiking Bank Rate next month; December viewed as a done deal.
- November still seems too early; the MPC saw "a high option value" in waiting for post-furlough jobs data.
- Inflation expectations exceed the rate implied by current inflation, but this residual isn't a reliable wage signal.
- We look for a 0.6% month-to-month rise in August GDP, half that needed to meet the MPC's Q3 forecast.
- A recovery in car production and a jump in restaurant diner numbers likely boosted overall GDP growth...
- ...But further falls in retail sales and Covid-related health spending probably countered these supports.
- Furlough scheme usage fell only marginally in August; 4.6% of staff still were furloughed by month-end.
- Furlough rates remain high at small businesses, who lack the financial muscle to bring all staff back.
- We expect only a modest rise in the unemployment rate to 5% in Q4, but a big jump in underemployment.
- Markets expect interest rates to rise more in the next 15 months than in any other period since 2007.
- Firms are well placed to cope, and the effective interest rate on all mortgage debt would rise only slowly...
- ...But higher new mortgage rates would hit spending via lower house prices or higher mortgage payments.
- In one line: Demand fading in the face of surging prices.
- Revisions to Q2 GDP data brightened the picture of the economy's recent trade performance...
- ...But Brexit still is preventing U.K. exporters from benefiting fully from the upswing in global trade.
- The return of the structural deficit in services trade will cause net trade to weigh on GDP growth in 2022.
- In one line: Recovery failed to gather momentum in September, despite upward revision.
- In one line: Supply chain issues held back the seasonal surge.
- The recent fall in hospital admissions suggests that the pandemic was on the retreat in September...
- ...But warmer-than-usual weather and fuel shortages have helped to reduce transmission temporarily.
- The combination of fading vaccine effectiveness and limited booster jab plans suggests Q4 will be worse.
- We have lowered our forecast for Q4 GDP, due to the impaired supply of fuel and industrial inputs.
- Surging energy prices have forced us to hike our forecast for CPI inflation in 2022 to 3.4%, from 2.5%.
- We now expect the Committee to hike Bank Rate in Q2 2022, but we don't buy investors' hawkish view.
- In one line: Supply constraints worsen, but demand growth also has weakened.
- The shortfall in GDP in July from its pre-Covid peak has been revised to just 1.3%, from 2.5% previously.
- Future growth, however, will be weak; both government spending and households' incomes will fall...
- ...So the MPC can take its time; we now expect a Q2 rate rise, but then a 12-month delay until the next hike.