3 Feb 2023 Eurozone Monitor

The ECB raised its policy rates by 50bp yesterday, as
widely expected...
...The Bank has signalled its intention for another
50bp rate hike in March and hinted more will follow...
...We look for 100bp hikes between now and June;
50bp in March, and 25bp in May and June.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Press Conference, February 2023

In one line: President Lagarde hints at more hikes post March but keeps cards close to her chest on number and size. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, February 2023

In one line: At least one more 50bp hike is on the way; no change to QT plans.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, December 2022

In one line: Headline masks big declines in imports and exports. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 Feb 2023 Eurozone Monitor What Happened to EZ Inflation in January? We aren't Sure

• Inflation in the euro area fell further at the start of 2023, at least, we think it did.
• Energy inflation is depressed by fiscal support, but the underlying trend is still firmly downwards.
• But EZ core inflation is still uncomfortably high, and it isn’t coming down anytime soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, EZ, Jan/Dec

In one line:  Soft CPI, partly due to the 2023 change in weights. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, EZ, January

In one line: The manufacturing downturn is easing but has further to run. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Feb 2023 Eurozone Monitor EZ GDP Rose in Q4, just; Ireland Saved the Day, Again

• EZ GDP rose by 0.1% in Q4, defying our forecast for a EZ recession, thanks to a jump in Irish output.
• Increases in output in France, Spain and Ireland offset declines in Germany, Italy and Austria.
• January French inflation data and the ECB Lending Survey point to downside risks to EZ spending in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, EZ & Italy, Q4 2022

In one line: A small rise despite the falls in Italian and German GDP.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, January 2023

In one line: Jobless claims fall again at the start of the year. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, January 2023

In one line: Relief in the core. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, December 2022

In one line: Awful. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q4-22 GDP & Consumers' Spending, France

In one line: Domestic demand has softened, but net exports are rebounding. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, January 2023

In one line: Yet another survey showing green shoots in EZ activity. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor ECB Hawks Turn up the Volume; they will get their Way this Week

• Early national January inflation data suggest the EZ read will be uncomfortable.
• The ECB will hike both the deposit and refi rates by 50bp this week, to 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively.
• Further rate hikes are on the way, despite the likely
  small fall in EZ GDP in Q4 and Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Germany, Q4 2022

In one line: Germany edges closer to recession. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Jan 2023 Eurozone Monitor The Rise in Spanish Q4 GDP is Not a Game Changer for the EZ Print

• Spain’s economy grew in Q4, but we still think that overall euro area GDP declined, slightly.
• Spanish GDP will grow more than the EZ average this year, but still lag in terms of its Covid recovery.
• The continued slowdown in real EZ M1 growth is at odds with green shoots in the surveys.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, December

In one line: No good news here.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q4 2022

In one line: Spain was likely the best performer among the big four in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, January 2023

In one line: Soft, and we fear worse in coming months. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone