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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

16 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ auto sector struggling to shift into the right gear

  • EZ car production remains well below pre-pandemic levels and is still facing headwinds… 
  • ...Demand is subdued, and new emissions standards come into effect in 2025. 
  • The sector will stay on the back foot without a push to innovate, most notably to develop cheaper EVs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ profit margins are falling; why is the labour market resilient?

  • EZ corporate profit margins are falling rapidly, underpinning continued ECB policy easing. 
  • A decline in work-hours since Covid partly explains labour-hoarding in the Eurozone… 
  • …But fears of labour shortages when the cycle rebounds and no recession are likely bigger drivers.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 October 2024 EZ Monitor The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?

  • We look for a third rate cut from the ECB this week, taking the deposit rate to 3.25%.
  • The consensus and market-based expectations for rates next year are too low…
  • …They will move higher once the ECB broaches the subject of the neutral rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, August 2024

In one line: Still on track for a sixth straight quarterly fall in Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italian GDP growth picked up in Q3; no German recession

  • Italian business surveys soured in Q3, but our Nowcast models point to a pick-up in GDP growth. 
  • Destatis finally published German retail sales data after a four-month hiatus… 
  • ...They were positive, as we suspected, so we have again removed a German recession from our call.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, August 2024

In one line: Solid, but likely not enough to prevent a growth hit from net exports in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany likely fell into a technical recession in Q3

  • We're lowering our Q3 growth forecast for Germany; we now think the economy fell into recession… 
  • …But beware, Nowcast models in Germany are less reliable than usual; Q3 GDP is a true wild card. 
  • France won't cut public spending by €40B next year, but a deficit of 5% of GDP is doable, and then some.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, August 2024

In one line: The boost to GDP from rising net exports is reversing, we think.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor No recovery in German industry, despite August's jump in output

  • German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September. 
  • We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2. 
  • Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook

  • Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month. 
  • EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation. 
  • We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, August 2024

In one line: Probably underestimating the true strength in sales.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2024

In one line: Depressed by large orders; upside risks for industrial production in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 October 2024 EZ Monitor Raising our Eurozone house price forecast; the sector is recovering

  • Eurozone house price growth rebounded strongly in Q2, and we think further increases are likely.
  • We see signs that housing demand is picking up healthily amid falling interest rates.
  • We now think house prices will rise by 1.5% in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2024

In one line:  Q3 will be better than expected for French industry. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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