In one line: More evidence of downside risks to growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Avoiding recession, unlike neighbouring Germany.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A major defeat in the regional votes forces Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to call an early election.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Survey data in France are rolling over, pointing to downside risks for GDP growth in Q2.
- The trend in domestic demand points to recession risks in France as the surge in net trade peters out.
- Investment in France is now likely falling, but we think consumers' spending is rebounding.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Activity is weakening, in line with that in France and Germany
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Q1 fall in public spending means that German GDP is set for a decline in 2023, by 0.4%.
- Consumers' spending in Germany should rebound in Q2, but investment is now falling.
- Regional elections in Spain over the weekend look set to be a win for Prime Minister Sanchez.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Consistent with a rebound in consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Further signs that the French economy is losing pace.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Germany tips into technical recession.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A rebound in Chinese growth is good news for the EZ, but the composition of the recovery isn’t.
- EZ goods exports to China likely will remain subdued in the near term, but imports are falling.
- China is now exporting disinflation to EZ core goods consumer and producer prices.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMIs Point To Surprising Strength In Q2 But We Think The Survey Overstates The Pace Of Growth
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ composite PMI fell in May, matching leading indicators, but still points to solid growth in Q2...
- ...It likely overstates the pace of GDP growth; the carry-over for hard data in Q2 looks difficult.
- We think a robust services PMI is capturing solid nominal activity, overstating the pace of real growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soaring, but the upturn is now likely at an end.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a sustained decline? Yes, according to leading indicators.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Holding on to recent gains, despite manufacturing hitting the skids.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Lower inflation should support sentiment ahead
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
