- In one line: The EZ trade surplus with EFTA has vanished, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Still advancing, but the core seems to be cooling.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German core inflation is still rising; we think it will hit 3%-plus in Q4, before easing in January.
- Electricity inflation in Spain is still rocketing, threatening consumer's real incomes and industry.
- Core inflation in Spain is now back at its pre-virus rate; should we be looking for an overshoot now?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The burden of adjustment in France's budget deficit in 2022 will fall on lower expenditures…
- …But the preliminary budget looks overall growth friendly; it will be 2.0pp wider than before the virus.
- We see an outsize risks of tax hikes in H2 22, and yields will have to rise as ECB support wanes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Q3 was another "non-quarter" for industry.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Both energy and core inflation are still rising.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: The German economy is losing steam, and quickly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Still doing better than the rest of the big four.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Spanish government is continuing to support the recovery next year...
- ...But its GDP growth forecasts, reliant on hefty in- creases in investment, seem too high to us.
- The budget deficit is all but certain to be higher than the government’s 5% estimate next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A severe and sustained Q4 slowdown in China could knock EZ GDP growth by 2.0pp in 2021 and 2022.
- The main link between economic activity in China and the EZ is via the trade channel.
- EZ GDP growth and investment are sensitive to Chinese imports and overall trade volumes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Back to square one; imports roared ahead of exports, again.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
- The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
- The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: A stable goods deficit, but the services surplus is rising quickly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Ugly; Q3 GDP growth forecasts will have to come down.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Another weak month, but you can ignore it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: German manufacturing hit a brick wall in Q3; GDP growth downgrades coming soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
