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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

21 Jan 2022 The ECB will Raise Rates in the First Half of 23; Conditions Apply

  • Inflation in the EZ has peaked, but core inflation above 2% will be a challenge for the ECB in 2022.
  • Watch services inflation closely after the decline in January; it could hit 3%-plus in Q3.
  • We see three conditions for the ECB to lift its deposit rate by 30bp in H1 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, EZ, December 2021

In one line: All set for a big drop in Q1, but the core will rebound strongly in Q2 and Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, January 2022

In one line: Industrial production should rebound soon; services are softening. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 Jan 2022 Will the Real Trade Data in the Eurozone Please Stand Up?

  • The EZ's trade surplus in goods is a lot perkier if we choose to believe the ECB's current account data.
  • Net services exports likely jumped in Q4, but this means intellectual property investment plunged.
  • EZ portfolio outflows are now slowing, belatedly; inflows signal trouble for equities in 2022.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: A decent Q4 for construction, despite downward revisions.  

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 Jan 2022 EZ Auto Sales and Capex Remain Weak, but Employment is Rising

  • EZ auto sales fell in 2021, again, though we suspect they rebounded in Q4, after a terrible Q3.
  • Investment by EZ auto-makers has fallen in line with weakening production, due to supply-side woes…
  • …But employment has rebounded strongly, pointing to underlying confidence in the future.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, January 2022

In one line: Are analysts too positive on Germany? We think so. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Car Registrations, EU/EZ, December 2021

In one line: No recovery, but car sales likely rebounded slightly in Q4. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Jan 2022 Record House Price Growth will Keep the ECB On Its Toes

  • Growth in EZ house prices accelerated at a record pace in Q3; at this rate, it will hit 10% soon.
  • With most tailwinds still around this year, we expect further house price growth increases.
  • This will put a floor on any slowdown in spending growth, but will also raise alarm bells at the ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, EZ, November 2021

In one line: A surplus no more, but net trade still probably provided a little boost to GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Full-Year GDP, Germany, 2021

In one line: Q4 was nothing to write home about, Q1 likely will be worse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, December 2021

In one line: Core inflation was still rising by the end of 2021, but it will fall in January. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 Jan 2022 Draghi's Departure Wouldn't Change Italy's Outlook, Much

  • Decent hard data lead us to raise our Q4 forecast for Italy, as for Spain, but GDP growth has slowed.
  • Italian GDP likely rose by 0.8% in Q4; Q1's outcome will be little more than zero, as virus restrictions bite.
  • An early election in Italy would put upward pressure on BTP yields, but it would prove short-lived.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, November 2021

In one line: More evidence that industry in the periphery continues to outperform that in the core. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Jan 2022 What can Investors Expect from EZ Equities in a Post-Virus World?

  • Valuations point to subpar returns for euro area large-cap equities in the post-pandemic expansion.
  • Equities in Spain and Italy are priced for average returns of around 10% in the next five years…
  • …The corresponding numbers for German and French equities are just 5% and 2½%, respectively.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, November 2021

In one line: Distorted by Irish data; industry was probably a small drag on GDP growth in Q4.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 Jan 2022 Spain is On Track for 1.5% q/q Growth in Q4, a Positive Outlier

  • Stronger-than-expected industry and retail data lead us to revise up our Q4 GDP forecast for Spain.
  • We now think GDP grew by 1.5% q/q, much quicker than in the other major EZ economies.
  • Solid Q4 growth increases the carry-over for 2022 growth forecasts, but Spain is still a laggard.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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