Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, June 2024

In one line: Slower but still decent growth and price pressures are easing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Confidence, EZ, June 2024

In one line: Still-rising; lifted by a strong labour market and firming real wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Two SNB cuts down, two more likely this year

  • The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
  • ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
  • expect.
    The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, April

In one line: Q1 wasn’t as good as previously thought, and output will fall back in Q2. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, April 2024

In one line: Boosted by a rebound in the surpluses of goods and services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread still on track for 100bp despite political uncertainty

  • The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp. 
  • France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room. 
  • Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation will hit 2% soon, but the core will stay sticky

  • Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet. 
  • Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer. 
  • We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Another day, another wage figure points to the ECB on hold in July

  • The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1… 
  • ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany. 
  • Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing

  • Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
  • Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
  • The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, EZ, April 2024

In one line: Headline points to weakness but the details are more positive

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will consumption growth save the day for Italy's economy?

  • Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
  • ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
  • We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Nasty, especially in the core, but it’ll get better soon.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor EU tariffs on Chinese EVs are not the start of a trade war

  • The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war. 
  • Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon. 
  • German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will RN win an absolute majority? Initial poll suggests not

  • Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
  • What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
  • Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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