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Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here.
EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.
Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...
...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.
In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower.
The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...
...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.
EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.
In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.
In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.
The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.
We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.
Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.
Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.
We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.
Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.
In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.
Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...
...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.
Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.
In one line: An upside surprise, but threats still loom.
In one line: Doing better than elsewhere, but still feeling the pinch from higher input costs.
We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.
But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.
We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.
In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the surplus in services is soaring.
We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...
...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.
EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.
In one line: Supply issues aren’t going away any time soon.
In one line: Ugly; production did well in Q1, but it will fall sharply in Q2.
Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.
But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.
German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.
In one line: Grim; brace for a big downside surprise in production tomorrow.
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