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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, June 2024

In one line: Core is settled around 2%; headline should fall further from August onwards.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, June 2026

In one line: Falling, and survey data point to further declines ahead.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Revising up our Q2 GDP growth call for Italy, marginally

  • Monthly hard data for Italy have been better than expected; our new nowcast points to faster growth… 
  • ...but business surveys suggest GDP growth is unlikely to budge from Q1’s 0.3%. 
  • Advance numbers suggest that EZ negotiated wage growth slowed in Q2, despite firmer Indeed data.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, May

In one line: Decent, but not enough to prevent a Q2 decline. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The curious case of the vanishing EZ monetary policy transmission

  • EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism. 
  • The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC. 
  • Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor House prices in the Eurozone will fare better than previously thought

  • The fall in Eurozone house prices eased for the second straight quarter in Q1…
  • ...and we see signs that demand is picking up sooner than we thought amid falling interest rates. 
  • We now think house prices will be broadly flat in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters

  • Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on. 
  • The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked. 
  • Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Sentix, Eurozone, July 2024

In one line: Still consistent with a rebound in the PMI, despite falling.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, May 2024

In one line: Goods spending is not benefitting from the recovery in real incomes, yet.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production & Trade, France, May 2024

In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Manufacturing still a drag in Q2; Q3 will be different, we hope

  • Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
  • The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
  • The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Fall in Swiss inflation reaffirms our call for further SNB rate cuts

  • Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
  • We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
  • The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, June

In one line:  Upward revision doesn’t change picture of cooling output growth in June.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor No fireworks from Sintra; ECB comments in line with our rate call

  • ECB President Lagarde struck a somewhat hawkish tone in her Sintra speeches… 
  • ...But the main message from ECB speakers is that more rate cuts are on the way, data permitting. 
  • Overall, the Sintra conference left no mark on market-based and consensus rate expectations.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, June

In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,