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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Unemployment, EZ, Sep/Aug

In one line: Consistent with a 75bp hike in October, but core inflation likely has peaked. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, September

In one line:  Further increases in the unemployment rate are likely. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor EZ Inflation Likely Reached 10% in September, with 5% on the Core

  • German core HICP inflation jumped to just under 5% in September; we think this is the peak.
  • Germany is readying €200B to support shielding the economy from rising energy prices this winter.
  • Risks are tilted to the upside for today's EZ CPI data; we see the headline at 10%, and the core at 5%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, September

In one line: German inflation jumped above 10% in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

29 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor It'll Be a While Before the Dust Settles on Italy's New Government

Mario Draghi will remain in his post as caretaker Prime Minister until at least late October.

Infighting over fiscal policy means Italy’s new government is unlikely to meet its budget deadline.

Markets are volatile; upward pressure on BTP yields will remain, and likely will hit 5.0% by year-end.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, October 202

In one line: Sky-high energy bills are forcing consumers to forgo other spending.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor If We are Right on Inflation, the ECB will Hike by 75bp Next Month

  • We detect no push-back from ECB policymakers against the idea of a 75bp rate hike next month.
  • The ECB is clear in its message; higher rates are needed to reduce demand in line with supply.
  • Quantitative tightening makes little sense in the EZ, but the discussion has started, all the same.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

PM Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, August 2022

In one line: Solid headline, but real M1 growth is still falling.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor The 2s10s Bund Curve is about to Invert; What Happens Next

  • Bond yields in Germany are rising at their fastest pace this side of reunification.
  • The German 2s10s yield curve has collapsed to zero; we think it will invert soon.
  • Normally, an inverted yield curve points to a policy mistake by the central bank, but not this time.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 Sept 2022 Eurozone Monitor More Recessionary PMI Data in the EZ

  • The EZ composite PMI sank further in September, consistent with GDP falling in the third quarter
  • Supply-side tensions eased in September, but higher energy costs drove a rise in input price inflation.
  • Markets look for the ECB deposit rate to end 2022 at 2.25, with 75bp more in 2023; that's too much. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence