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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Trade, EZ, March 2025

In one line: A new record high, thanks to tariff front-running by US firms.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, April 2025

In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss economy galloping in 2025, though growth is now slowing

  • Switzerland’s economy was on a tear before the trade-tariff shock hit. 
  • Strong growth is not inflationary, and is now slowing; the SNB will cut in June, taking rates below zero. 
  • EZ GDP was revised down in Q1 and will also slow ahead, but the unemployment rate will stay low.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Are markets and forecasters ready for the German fiscal-policy shift?

  • Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario. 
  • Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low. 
  • Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor More signs EZ GDP growth is holding up in Q2

  • Investor sentiment, measured by the ZEW, improved in May despite a fall in the current conditions index. 
  • Investor sentiment now points to a rebound in the PMI as markets forget all about tariffs. 
  • Near-real time data also signal resilience in the EZ economy midway through the second quarter.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor US-China de-escalation worth less than markets think

  • A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming. 
  • Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated. 
  • Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, March 2025

In one line: Industry will likely support GDP again in Q2, but downside risks remain.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor UK-US deal not a blueprint for EU-US trade negotiations

  • The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
  • Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
  • EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, March 2025

In one line: Still trending sideways, as they have since November. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Construction PMI rise still under-estimating growth in the sector

  • The EZ construction PMI rose in April, on the back of a recovery in new orders in Germany. 
  • Construction activity is still faring better in Italy than in Germany or France. 
  • The sector is likely to support EZ GDP in Q2, as it seems to have done in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls to zero; SNB will cut its key policy rate below 0%

  • Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
  • ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response. 
  • We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 May 2025 Eurozone Monitor Soft headline inflation will pave the way for a 1.75% depo-rate by July

  • Jump in April core inflation was due to Easter effects in services; the remaining components were soft.
  • Dovish forecasts from the ECB will pave the way for for a back-to-back 25bp rate cut next month…
  • …and we now look for an additional 25bp cut in July, but also hikes next year, in June and September.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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