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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: GDP & Employment, Eurozone, Q1 2022

 In one line: Growth should accelerate a touch in Q2 but employment growth will probably ease from here. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 May 2022 What is Happening to the EU Ban on Russian Oil Imports

EZ trade data show that sanctions hit trade with Russia hard, and energy imports fell in March.

Progress in imposing an oil ban has stalled, as four countries, led by Hungary, threaten to veto it...

...The risk to our assumption that the EU will push ahead with a ban on gas soon, is towards no ban.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Still widening, and the March headline likely will be revised lower. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2022 Is it Safe for Investors to Start Buying Eurozone Equities?

The medium-term outlook for EZ equities has improved significantly in the past 12 months...

...But earnings expectations have to fall further in the near term, weighing on prices over the summer.

EZ manufacturing will slow sharply in Q2; core inflation pressures in France have intensified.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, March 2022

 In one line: Ugly; industry will be a drag on growth in Q2 as the German powerhouse takes a hit.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, April 2022

 In one line: Core inflation is now at 3%, where it will stay until Q4, at least.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2022 The EZ Primary Budget will Stay in the Red, but the Debt Ratio will Fall

The euro area’s primary budget balance swung to a significant deficit during the pandemic.

We think the primary deficit will narrow through 2024, but the balance will remain in the red.

Net interest costs will rise, but we think the debt-to-GDP ratio will fall, due to robust nominal growth.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, April 2022

 In one line: Core and food inflation climbed; energy inflation fell, a bit.  

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

11 May 2022 If the EU Bans Russian Gas, Italy will Flirt with Recession in H2

Italy will probably avoid entering a technical recession in Q2, as services activity rebounds strongly...

...But we now expect an EU ban on gas imports from Russia, which will weigh on growth in H2.

Our forecasts for Spain are unchanged from March as recent developments offset each other.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, May 2022

In one line: An upside surprise, but threats still loom.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Italy, March 2022

In one line: Doing better than elsewhere, but still feeling the pinch from higher input costs.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May Germany will Enter Recession in the Second Half of the Year

We still think German GDP growth will pick up a bit in Q2, as services activity improves.

But the economy probably will fall into recession in the second half of the year.

We now see full-year growth in 2022 at just 1.5-to-1.6%, with the same pace likely in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, March 2022

In one line: The deficit in goods is widening, but the surplus in services is soaring.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2022 No Change to our SNB Forecast, Despite More Hikes from the ECB

 We recently added an extra hike into our interest rate profile for the ECB for this year...

...But we are not changing our view for the SNB; it will keep its key policy rate at -0.75% until at least 2024.

EZ industry is unlikely to be much help to GDP growth in the second quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Ugly; production did well in Q1, but it will fall sharply in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 May 2022 The EZ Inches Closer to an H2 Recession in our New Forecasts

Our baseline view now is that Europe is moving seriously to rid itself of Russian energy supplies.

But a gas embargo will not be implemented overnight, which should smooth the economic hit.

German growth will be hit hardest, but we are lowering our forecasts for France and Italy too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, March 2022

In one line: Grim; brace for a big downside surprise in production tomorrow. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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