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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

17 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ fiscal policy: will the best laid plans of governments go awry?

  • EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
  • We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
  • The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, April 2024.

In one line: The core should fall a bit further over the summer, but 2% is likely the new trend.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor The start of a period of sustained EZ GDP growth? We think so

  • GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
  • A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
  • EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, April 2024

In one line: Soft, but beware the risk of a snap-back in services inflation in May.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ wage growth trended lower at start of Q2 and will fall further

  • Indeed data show that EZ wage growth slowed further in April; a win for ECB doves.
  • Catalonia election led to a win for PSC; can it garner a coalition to avoid a repeat election in the autumn?
  • German services inflation will rise in May, as the Deutschland ticket falls out of the year-over-year rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will rising investor sentiment lift EZ PMIs further in Q2

  • Investor sentiment has further to climb, judging by the impressive rally in equities so far this month.
  • Rising investor sentiment signals a continued rise in the PMIs, but seasonality suggests otherwise.
  • All eyes on detailed services inflation this week for evidence that the fever is breaking.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor European Parliament elections are not a game changer for EU policy

  • Polls point to more seats for the far-right in the European Parliament after June’s vote...
  • ...This will have little bearing on policy, even where the EU has exclusive competencies, such as trade.
  • Any hard-line recommendations from far-right MEPs will likely be watered down by the majority.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Rise in food inflation in April not the start of a new trend

  • Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising. 
  •  Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside. 
  •  Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, March

In one line: German industry came out of recession in Q1, will it last?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services drove EZ GDP in Q1, despite German industry recovery

  • EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
  • February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
  • The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders & Trade Balance, Germany, March

In one line: Orders not rising in line with surveys; trade balance in goods rebounds

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor German output slides in March; EZ consumer goods spending flatlines

  • German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
  • ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
  • Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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