- In one line: A poor start to Q4, due chiefly to plunging mining activity.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Depressed, but the second derivative is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Adverse food price base effects will now unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Only a small respite in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: ECB hawks are about to eat humble pie.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- U.S. - Business Investment Spending Stalled at the Start of Q4
- EUROZONE - Germany’s Economy Is Suffering; a Fiscal Crisis Would Make It Worse
- U.K. - Autumn Statement Tax Cuts Won’t Stop the MPC Cutting Rates Next
- CHINA+ - China’s Economic Rebalancing Strategy Informs Market Direction
- EM ASIA - Fiscal Consolidation in Malaysia’s 2024 Budget Likely Too Optimistic
- LATAM - Will a Stronger-Than-Expected Economy in Q3 Scare Off Banxico?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global
- In one line: A stronger-than-expected Q3, but downside forces are emerging.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Global
In one line: Further reassurance a recession isn’t developing.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)Global
In one line: Still pointing to an EZ recession.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with falling GDP in Q4, despite rising.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: French GDP is headed for a decline in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Probably already regretting the October hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - The Pre-conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place
- EUROZONE- The EZ inflation data remain consistent with a March cut,to us
- U.K. - CPI Inflation Falling Quickly Enough for the MPC to Start Easing in Q2
- CHINA+ - China’s Property Developers Continue to Flounder
- EM ASIA - Collapse in Imports Saves Thai Q3 GDP from Complete Disaster
- LATAM - Milei’s Victory Presages Radical Change in Argentina; Will It Be Good?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global
In one line: The path to a March rate cut remains clear, to us.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A sensible pause, after October’s rash out-of-cycle hike.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Well below the MPC’s forecast, thanks to slowing services CPI inflation.
Samuel Tombs (UK Economist)Global
- In one line: A solid start to Q4 for exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- U.S. - How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession
- EUROZONE- Italy Facing a Tough Year-End Whether in Recession or Not
- U.K. - Households Will Put GDP Back on its Rising Path in Q4
- CHINA+ - Slowing Capital Outflows Ease Pressure on China’s Foreign Reserves
- EM ASIA - Watch Out for a Big Payback in India’s Q3 GDP Report
- LATAM - Banxico Finally Blinks, Opening the Door to Rate Cuts Pretty Soon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)Global
- In one line: Slowing core inflation will make the next few months of headline stubbornness easier to swallow.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
