Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)
- In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.
- In one line: Cautious COPOM holds steady amid uncertainty.
- The COPOM held the Selic at 15%, reaffirming its hawkish stance amid slow disinflation and global risk.
- Inflation expectations continue to ease, but the Board stressed patience and vigilance before any rate cut…
- …That first cut is now likely delayed to January as the BCB prioritises credibility and inflation convergence.
- In one line: Under pressure, but conditions likely will improve in Q1.
- Brazilian Real — Slips modestly on global headwinds
- Colombian Peso — Choppy gains as carry holds
- Chilean Peso — Political clarity and BCCh caution
- Brazil’s industrial output shrank again, highlighting persistent weakness across key sectors.
- The labour market—the economy’s last major support pillar—is softening amid tariff shocks and high rates.
- We expect the COPOM to hold rates at 15% today, but easing signals are likely as disinflation gains traction.
- High inflation and wage pressures reinforce BanRep’s cautious policy normalisation stance.
- The fiscal strategy has shifted towards revenue measures, as structural rigidities limit spending cuts.
- Chile’s broad-based rebound in September confirms domestic demand strength and easing mining issues.
- In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.
- In one line: A poor Q3, but early Q4 indicators hint at tentative stabilisation.
- BCCh’s cautious pause reflects sticky core inflation, fragile job data and sensitivity to election-driven noise.
- …Disinflation, a stable CLP and lower energy tariffs will justify a 25bp cut in December.
- Mexico’s GDP shrank in Q3 as industry weakened further and services plateaued; Q4 will be better.
- In one line: On hold, waiting for clearer disinflation.
- In one line: On hold, waiting for clearer disinflation.
- The job market is softening in Mexico as weak growth and investment weigh on employment creation.
- Brazil’s unemployment rate remains close to lows, but beneath the surface it is gradually cooling…
- …This resilience masks weakening fundamentals as high real rates and fading fiscal buffers bite.
- October’s IPCA-15 shows headline inflation is back below 5% in Brazil, amid weaker demand…
- …A resilient BRL and falling fuel costs strengthen the case for a cautious BCB rate cut.
- Mr. Milei’s legislative win boosts Argentinian assets, limits governability risk and opens door to reform.
- In one line: Disinflation anchored by a stronger BRL.
- Mr. Kast has steady support in Chile, but fragmented politics and social tensions cloud reform prospects.
- Macro fundamentals remain sound, though capex weakness limits near-term growth momentum.
- Fiscal credibility and governance will determine the durability of Chile’s post-election market stability.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- In one line: Uneven performance, but risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Industry in Mexico remains in contraction, with services sustaining limited but consistent growth.
- Easing headline inflation gives Banxico room to make cautious, data-driven policy rate cuts.
- Fiscal support and lower rates will help cushion growth, but structural headwinds persist into 2026.
- President Petro’s confrontation with Washington risks undoing decades of cooperation and stability.
- Economic activity is weakening as the construction and service sectors lose growth momentum.
- Fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty and political noise threaten the fragile recovery.
