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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Philippine inflation rose over 6% in June, for the first time in four years, on the back of food prices...
...But a third straight BSP hike in August still is no guarantee; oil disinflation is just around the corner.
Headline disinflation is imminent in Thailand, but we still expect some normalisation from the MPC soon.
Food prices drive Philippine inflation past the 6% mark
The relaxation of Thailand’s diesel price cap remains the main story
India’s service sector is still soaring
The manufacturing PMIs for June show that activity ended Q2 on a soft note across the board...
...Mean-reversion in ASEAN still has room to run, while India’s hard industry data offer some hope.
The good news is that short-term price pressures look to have peaked; supply issues are non-existent.
A broad-based slowdown in EM ASEAN
India’s manufacturing PMI falls below the 54 mark for the first time this year
Inflation in Indonesia has now breached the target… Over to you, BI
Retail sales growth in Thailand bounced strongly in April, with Q2 likely to see faster double-digit prints.
Reopening stimulus largely is over—locally—but tourist dollars look poised for a near-vertical leap.
We’re keeping to our above-consensus 2022 GDP forecasts; the lagged inflation hit is a 2023 problem.
GDP growth in Vietnam soared to 7.7% in Q2, from 5.0% in Q1, beating our above-consensus forecast.
The jump is misleading, though, as base effects flattered, while industry was the lone bright spot.
Momentum is ebbing, heading into Q3, but this is unlikely to be perceptible in the official GDP data.
Vietnam enjoys a robust, but narrow, improvement in GDP growth in Q2
A poor end to Q2 for consumers
A reassuring close to Q2 for trade, but the quarter on the whole was lacklustre
Food and oil price pressures intensified in June
Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...
...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.
Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.
The BSP hiked the ORR by an extra 25bp yesterday, in the face of growing calls for larger increases.
We’re keeping to our call for an August pause; oil disinflation is imminent and Q2 growth is flagging.
A breach of BI’s inflation target is just around the corner, and so is the start of interest rate hikes.
Covid is slowly resurfacing on the authorities’ radars in EM Asia, but we see no reason to panic.
That said, the region arguably faces the biggest black swan risks, due to very low booster coverage.
Spending growth in the Philippines can’t go back to Duterte-era rates with Diokno’s 3% deficit target.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
Indonesia's surplus survives the ban on palm oil exports
For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...
...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.
The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.
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