- India Is Trying To Get Over The Q4 Speed Bump.....The China Reopening Has Been Trivial, So Far
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth jumped to 9.8% year-over-year in February, from 1.6% in January...
- ...We see no reason to break out the champagne yet, as the improvement was down to base effects.
- Weak electronics demand and falling commodity prices should keep export growth muted.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Malaysia's trade growth jumps in February, but it's mostly from base effects
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean domestic non-oil export growth eased to -15.6% in February, from -25.0% in January.
- As we expected, the poor performance in export growth was driven by falling electronics exports.
- This drag is unlikely to lift anytime soon, as record inventories and falling prices keep the outlook poor.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Falling electronics exports are hammering Singaporean export growth
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- BI remained on hold yesterday, as widely expected, but its 2023 growth forecast is too high.
- The SBV has loosened a host of its secondary tools; we now see a 50bp benchmark rate cut this year.
- India’s trade gap rose in February, after adjustment, but export trends at the margin are perking up.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The surprise jump in Indonesia’s trade surplus last month was due mainly to a reversal of CNY effects...
- ...The stability of the adjusted surplus hides fading import demand and a subdued China reopening lift.
- The mid-2022 surge in Philippine exports has now reversed completely; still no good signs from Korea.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Increasingly reassuring trends at the margin.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the surplus jump, Indonesian trade continues to wobble
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine exports go from bad to worse
Upstream core price pressures in India continue to dissipate
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Signs of a slowdown appear in Malaysian retail sales
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The January spike in Indian inflation reversed only partly in February, keeping an April hike alive.
- The solid IP for January is hardly worth celebrating; consumers are still missing from the growth story.
- Malaysian retail sales growth remains in double-digits, but signs of a slowdown are surfacing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian retail sales growth fell further at the start of 2023, but the confidence signal is improving...
- ...A U-turn is no guarantee of faster growth; we now see signs of BI’s rate hikes curbing loan demand.
- Sales in the Philippines enjoyed a robust January, by contrast, but this year is unlikely to be a breeze.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BNM decided to maintain the OPR at 2.75%, continuing its pause from January.
- A more benign inflationary outlook, supported by the continuation of the current subsidy regime...
- ...And an increasingly poor growth outlook will keep the BNM from further monetary tightening.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Fed rhetoric has the BNM considering another 25bp rate hike in H2.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A poor start to the year for Indonesian retail sales
The January pop in Philippine sales growth is only half the story
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- February’s soft CPI numbers open the door fully for a pause by the BoT and a smaller 25bp BSP hike.
- The BoT will take a lot of comfort in the plunge in core inflation, which still is far from a potential floor.
- Inflation in the Philippines slipped unexpectedly, avoiding Governor Medalla’s “worst-case scenario”.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia