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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, April

  • In one line: A reassuring bounce in exports narrows the Songkran-adjusted deficit substantially.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 May 2024

Malaysian inflation comes in at 1.8% for a third consecutive month

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 May 2024

India’s lofty manufacturing PMI is becoming more well-rounded
India’s unreliable flash services PMI is still plateauing
Higher utilities inflation in Singapore offsets food disinflation in April

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Here comes the downshift in Indian GDP growth from 8%-plus

  • Our final forecast for India’s Q1 GDP next week sees growth slow to 6.2%, from 8.4% in Q4…
  • …The hits should come from an import bounce, weaker public spending and a plunge in valuables.
  • Taiwanese retail sales will remain subdued for the rest of Q2, but a late -H2 recovery is in the works.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian export growth in H2 will come down to electronics

  • Malaysian export growth rose sharply in April, but this was mostly down to favourable base effects…
  • …With this support likely to wane in coming months, all eyes are on the recovery in electronics exports.
  • BI stood pat yesterday, after April’s shock hike; the economy has yet to feel the full force of this cycle.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Why you shouldn't hang your hat on Thailand's Q1 GDP surprise

  • GDP growth in Thailand smashed expectations in Q1, as it fell trivially to 1.5% from 1.7% in Q4…
  • …But the consumption-and inventories-led quarterly bounce is dubious and unsustainable.
  • Merchandise trade and investment went from bad to worse, though the latter should revive from Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 20 May 2024

Don’t hang your hat on Thailand’s market-beating Q1 GDP print
Malaysian export recovery still in play despite headline trade figures likely falling in May

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 May 2024

Improvement in Singaporean export growth down to base effects

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore's export recovery looking increasingly anaemic

  • Base effects flattered Singaporean NODX growth in April, while real production is disappointing.
  • The long-running slide in urban unemployment in India appears finally to have stalled in Q1.
  • Remittances growth in the Philippines remains subpar; momentum is waning and the peso lift will fade.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP's Remolona now believes our August rate-cut call is doable

  • The BSP yesterday left the target reverse repo rate at 6.50%, with its statement still sounding hawkish…
  • …But Governor Remolona was more dove than hawk, saying a rate cut in August is now possible.
  • The BSP cut its 2024 CPI forecast to 3.8%; it’s been behind the curve and can afford to shoot lower.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, April

  • In one line: The deficit miss isn’t that bad, seasonal effects aside; don’t put too much stock into the jump in imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 May 2024

A poorer start to Q2 for Indonesian trade than suggested by the already-soft headlines

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian export growth returns, not with a bang but a whimper

  • Indonesian export growth rose back up above zero in April for the first time in 11 months, to 1.7%…
  • …But this was mostly thanks to favourable technicalities; exports are still broadly stagnating.
  • A durable return to positive growth should ensue in H2, in large part due to commodity prices.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, April

  • In one line: A 13-month high, as upstream deflationary forces wane.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 May 2024

Will the Q1 strength in Indonesian sales carry over to Q2?

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

15 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Potentially August or bust for the RBI's first rate cut

  • Inflation in India continued to slip trivially in April, but we see some positive underlying trends in food.
  • The RBI has a narrow window to start easing in Q3, with the room allowed by low core CPI set to vanish.
  • Indonesian retail sales saw a promising Q1 revival, but hold judgement until Ramadan effects wane.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 May 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor India's soft March IP in context; high time for payback in GDP

  • Indian IP missed expectations in March, with growth slowing to 4.9%, from 5.6% in February…
  • …More softness is likely this quarter, with trends at the margin unspectacular; ignore the rosy PMIs.
  • An overdue payback in GDP growth to the tune of 0.6pp is likely in Q1, based purely on the IP signal.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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