2 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor

Indian and ASEAN PMIs show that China’s recent lockdowns are not wrecking supply chains...

...Input price increases continue to moderate markedly region-wide, softening to two-year lows.

Core inflation in Indonesia is showing more signs of stability; a BI pivot to 25bp still is on for this month.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 December 2022

ASEAN industry is losing momentum rapidly, heading into 2023
Price pressures in Indian manufacturing are back to square one
Food disinflation in Indonesia remains the gift that keeps giving

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Dec 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor India's Q3 was Deceptively Strong, Enough to Ensure a December Hike

The unwinding of Delta base effects in India led to a tolerable moderation in GDP growth, to 6.3% in Q3.

But statistical discrepancies flattered the headlines, and the bump in consumption is unrepeatable.

The BoT rate, of 1.25%, likely is the terminal level; its 2023 forecasts inadvertently will justify a pause.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Q3 GDP and October Core Production, India

• In one line: Deceptively strong. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: The reversal of Covid-era cuts is complete; expect nothing more going forward.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Consumption in Vietnam is Reviving, but Q4 will Still be Poor

Retail sales in Vietnam sprang back to life in November, breaking from their recent stagnation...

...The job market essentially is as tight as it was pre-Covid, underpinning brisk real wage growth.

GDP growth will still fall sharply this quarter, as Delta base effects unwind and industry ebbs.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 29 November 2022

Vietnamese trade in November wasn't as grim as the headlines suggest
Consumers finally are showing signs of life
Inflation will rise more sharply soon, as transport disinflation has bottomed-out

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

29 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Thailand's Shrinking Trade Deficit is Less Exciting than it Appears

Thailand’s customs trade deficit fell to just $597M in October, thanks to still-helpful seasonal effects...

...This masked an immediate reversal of the unsustainable bounce in exports in September.

Falling imports—in nominal and real terms—likely will drive the “improvement” in the trade balance.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 28 November 2022

An unwelcome narrowing of Thailand's trade deficit

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor India's Q3 GDP will have a Lot of Moving Parts; Expect a Let-Down

We look for a sharper-than-expected fall in Indian GDP growth, to 3.7% in Q3, from 13.5% in Q2... 

...A big reversal in Delta-era base effects will be to blame, masking the first quarterly gain since Q4. 

Minimum wages in Indonesia could jump by 10% in 2023, but are merely catching up with market rates. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

November 2022 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

• A Solid Round Of Q3 GDP Numbers In Asean...The RBI's Cycle Has Come To An Uneventful End

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 November 2022

Thailand's main driver—inventories—is unsustainable

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

22 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Inventories Won't be Able to Carry Thai GDP Growth for Much Longer

• GDP growth in Thailand jumped to 4.5% in Q3, from 2.5% in Q2, on the back of a sturdier quarterly gain...
• ...But involuntary restocking was again the biggest driver; excess inventories will be an issue for 2023.
• The revival in tourism is on track, but it’s a cushion— at best—while consumption will soon wane faster.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor India's H1 FY2022/23 Fiscal Data are Sound, but Flexibility is Limited

• India’s budget deficit still looks on track to hit this fiscal year’s 6.4% of GDP target, if not to better it...
• ...Underspending, despite this year’s acute burdens, and the post-Covid revenue pop are both helping.
• Remittances in the Philippines are still soaring in peso terms, but 2023 will be a year of slowdown.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Look Out for a Simultaneous Pivot by BI and the BSP in December

• BI and the BSP yesterday raised their rates by 50bp and 75bp, respectively, in line with expectations.
• The governors of both central banks left some breadcrumbs for a potential pivot to smaller hikes...
• ...BI is sounding more reassured about inflation, and the BSP’s anxiety over the core rate is misplaced.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Reiterating that 50bp adjustments aren’t forever.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: No sign of a pivot.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Nov 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Export Growth is Fast Losing Support Left and Right

• Indonesian export growth fell to a 20-month low of 12.3% in October, and more downside is ahead...
• ...The unwinding of the commodities boom is far from over, and Chinese demand is now softening.
• The rise in India’s trade deficit in October is a minor and brief setback; weak flows are the main issue.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October

• In one line: Just a seasonal jump in the deficit, but two-way trade is falling apart.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 November 2022

A deceptively reassuring start to Q4 for Indonesian trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia