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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

15 Oct 2021 September's Surprisingly Soft Price Data won't Buy the RBI Much Time

  • A normalisation of monetary policy in India still is around the corner, even if the recovery loses vigour.
  • September's CPI and WPI headlines were softer than expected, thanks largely to food base effects.
  • Higher core inflation remains likely, with widespread price hikes in the pipeline, and expectations rising.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, September 2021

  • In one line: Not exactly a sign that domestic demand is roaring back.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EMERGING ASIA DATA WRAP 14.10.21

Don’t expect non-core disinflation to help much more in the short run

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Oct 2021 India's Delta IP Bounce is Complete, but it's No Time to Celebrate

  • The post-Delta bounce in Indian industry is over, with August output eclipsing the pre-virus peak.
  • Above-trend monthly gains will now be hard to sustain, especially with households still struggling.
  • Capex has been the driver of late, but this too looks set to hit a wall, given more than ample capacity.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 Oct 2021 Much of ID's Fiscal Consolidation will Occur Before the '22 Tax Hikes

  • Indonesia's parliament last week approved a host of revenue-raising measures for 2022...
  • ...But their impact on the narrowing of the deficit may be trivial, as it has already closed substantially.
  • The higher VAT rate is tolerable, given low inflation, while the stable corporate rate isn't a big blow.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: August IP & September CPI, India 2021

  • In one line: Don’t forget that the RBI doesn’t think the softness in inflation will last either.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EMERGING ASIA DATA WRAP 12.10.21

Trade shows that firms fared better than consumers at the height of the Delta squeeze

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

11 Oct 2021 Delta was More a Delay, Not a Direct Hit, to the Recovery in PH Spending

  • The volume of net sales index in the Philippines was largely unscathed by the worst of the Delta scare...
  • ...But households relied on savings, again, setting back the longer-term recovery in consumption.
  • The current wave has rocked the labour market, though it appears no lasting damage was done.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 Oct 2021 A Premature Reverse Repo Rate Hike by the RBI is Unlikely

  • The RBI is widely expected to hold the repo rate tomorrow, but some see a reverse repo rate hike...
  • ...We reckon the rate corridor will be returned to the pre-Covid width only when normalisation begins.
  • The stage is set for the MPC to turn "neutral" this quarter, though, with inflation expectations soaring.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Oct 2021 India's Post-Delta Bounce was Firm, but Reopening Only Goes so Far

  • India's PMIs for Q3 point to a robust quarterly GDP gain, but don't be shocked if momentum now slows.
  • The surprise slip in inflation in the Philippines in September won't be much comfort for the BSP.
  • The spike in Thai inflation last month was a one-off, reflecting the expiry of Covid-linked utilities relief.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EMERGING ASIA DATA WRAP 5.10.21

The post-Delta bounce in Indian services remains strong

The September dip in inflation will be only temporary respite for the BSP

Don’t worry too much about the September spike… uncontrolled inflation in Thailand isn’t on the cards

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 Oct 2021 Time to Write-Off Fully Thailand's 2021... And Prep for an Early Hike

  • The Bank of Thailand's 2021 forecast downgrade doesn't go far enough; Q3 was a catastrophe...
  • ...But its 2022 projection is on the low side; an upside surprise would open the door for a rate hike.
  • Policy is unlikely to stay ultra-loose longer than needed, as the household debt issue needs action.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EMERGING ASIA DATA WRAP 1.10.21

A reassuring end to Q3 for ASEAN manufacturing

Don’t expect India’s manufacturing PMI to get any better than this

Early signs of the reopening lift in Indonesia’s CPI breakdown

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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Emerging Asia Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence