March 2023 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

• India Is Trying To Get Over The Q4 Speed Bump.....The China Reopening Has Been Trivial, So Far

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Little to Celebrate Despite Higher Headline Export Growth in Malaysia

• Malaysian export growth jumped to 9.8% year-over-year in February, from 1.6% in January...
• ...We see no reason to break out the champagne yet, as the improvement was down to base effects.
• Weak electronics demand and falling commodity prices should keep export growth muted.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 20 March 2023

Malaysia's trade growth jumps in February, but it's mostly from base effects

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor The Spectre of Weak Electronics Demand is Haunting SG Exports

• Singaporean domestic non-oil export growth eased to -15.6% in February, from -25.0% in January.
• As we expected, the poor performance in export growth was driven by falling electronics exports.
• This drag is unlikely to lift anytime soon, as record inventories and falling prices keep the outlook poor. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 17 March 2023

Falling electronics exports are hammering Singaporean export growth

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor BI's Rose-Tinted 2023 Growth Outlook Still Needs a Reality Check

• BI remained on hold yesterday, as widely expected, but its 2023 growth forecast is too high.
• The SBV has loosened a host of its secondary tools; we now see a 50bp benchmark rate cut this year.
• India’s trade gap rose in February, after adjustment, but export trends at the margin are perking up.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Cool as a cucumber.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

16 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor The Ugly Side of Indonesia's Seemingly Healthy Trade Surplus

• The surprise jump in Indonesia’s trade surplus last month was due mainly to a reversal of CNY effects...
• ...The stability of the adjusted surplus hides fading import demand and a subdued China reopening lift.
• The mid-2022 surge in Philippine exports has now reversed completely; still no good signs from Korea.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, February

• In one line: Increasingly reassuring trends at the margin.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 March 2023

Ignore the surplus jump, Indonesian trade continues to wobble

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 March 2023

Philippine exports go from bad to worse
Upstream core price pressures in India continue to dissipate 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, February

• In one line: Not enough to take 25bp off the table in April.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 13 March 2023

Signs of a slowdown appear in Malaysian retail sales

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor A Final 25bp Rate Increase by the RBI Remains Firmly on the Table

• The January spike in Indian inflation reversed only partly in February, keeping an April hike alive.
• The solid IP for January is hardly worth celebrating; consumers are still missing from the growth story.
• Malaysian retail sales growth remains in double-digits, but signs of a slowdown are surfacing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian Retail Sales Growth is Due a U-Turn, but Not a Fast 2023

• Indonesian retail sales growth fell further at the start of 2023, but the confidence signal is improving...
• ...A U-turn is no guarantee of faster growth; we now see signs of BI’s rate hikes curbing loan demand.
• Sales in the Philippines enjoyed a robust January, by contrast, but this year is unlikely to be a breeze.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, January

• In one line: A glass that remains half-full.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor A Pessimistic Growth Outlook Keeps the BNM from Hiking

• The BNM decided to maintain the OPR at 2.75%, continuing its pause from January.
• A more benign inflationary outlook, supported by the continuation of the current subsidy regime...
• ...And an increasingly poor growth outlook will keep the BNM from further monetary tightening.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision

• In one line: Fed rhetoric has the BNM considering another 25bp rate hike in H2.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 March 2023

A poor start to the year for Indonesian retail sales
The January pop in Philippine sales growth is only half the story

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Mar 2023 Emerging Asia Monitor February's CPI Data Set Up a Twin Pivot from the BoT and BSP

•  February’s soft CPI numbers open the door fully for a pause by the BoT and a smaller 25bp BSP hike.
• The BoT will take a lot of comfort in the plunge in core inflation, which still is far from a potential floor.
• Inflation in the Philippines slipped unexpectedly, avoiding Governor Medalla’s “worst-case scenario”.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia