Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
In one line: Inflation holds steady; negative rates even less likely than earlier.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
- In one line: Q4 confirms stagnation as tight policy weighs on capex.
In one line: Korean PMI points to building inflation pressure
- In one line: Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats.
Rising domestic and external demand lifting most boats in ASEAN
- US - Soft February jobs to imply Fed will ease again midyear, despite Iran war
- EUROZONE - Markets now look for an ECB hike this year, but we doubt it
- UK - Energy prices could stop the MPC cutting more than once this year
- CHINA+ - Low Tokyo headline inflation allows BoJ to take its time on rate moves
- EM ASIA - India’s new GDP more stable and carries greater credibility
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation still benign as seasonal hits distort February print
- Expect just a 0.2pp uplift to the CPI if the $10 jump in WTI oil prices lasts; the core CPI impact is a wash.
- We look for a 0.6% fall in headline sales in January, mostly due to a weather-linked plunge in auto sales.
- Winter Storm Fern likely weighed on sales ex-autos too, and the underlying trend also now is weak.
- Brazil’s Q4 GDP confirms minimal growth, as capex plunges and private consumption stalls.
- Exports and agribusiness cushion activity, masking weak domestic demand and an investment collapse.
- The COPOM is set to ease gradually, but the oil shock clouds the inflation and policy outlook.
- We see no need yet to rethink our India CPI and rate calls, as fuel prices are already unnaturally high…
- …The clearer threat to CPI this year is the slowdown in agri growth; we see February inflation at 3.2%.
- The pre-Iran-war oil-price gains had barely any impact on industry in India and ASEAN.
- Premier Li is likely to trim the 2025 growth target tomorrow, putting the focus on medium-term goals.
- China will probably step up the rhetoric on consumption, but without the matching substance.
- Policymakers are reluctant to shift support away from industrial policy, seen as key to China’s success.
- Markets are speculating about an ECB hike in 2026, as energy prices surge and EZ core inflation jumps…
- …But we think the Bank will play it safe this month, opting to monitor the situation.
- The war in Iran and rising February core inflation pull up our 2026 inflation forecast by 0.2pp, to 2.1%.
- We now expect a rate cut in April, compared to March previously, after another surge in commodity prices.
- Our forecast today is a holding position as we wait to see where gas prices settle at the end of the week.
- The Chancellor boosted her headroom in the Spring Statement, but bigger challenges await in the autumn.
In one line: Korea’s export jump exaggerated by LNY timing; semiconductors still underpin growth.
In one line: Property and construction weakness drags China’s non-manufacturing PMI below 50
In one line: China’s manufacturing PMI slips, as a larger-than-usual post-December festive and pre-LNY demand pullback exposes weak fundamentals.
In one line: Korea exports surge in full-month February on global AI investment boom
