Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
FACTORY ASIA—EX-CHINA—IS DOWN, BUT NOT OUT
- …MORE CUTS TO COME FROM THE RBI AND THE BSP
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
- …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
- Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Capping off an unremarkable Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- Thai exports continued to soar in Q1, on the back of US tariff front-loading, which leapt in March…
- …But their boost to GDP growth should be counter-balanced markedly by much more destocking…
- …While service exports likely will impose their first big drag post-Covid, given falling Chinese tourists.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Bigger US front-loading drives Thai export growth to a 3-year high
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for April were solid, albeit backed seemingly by unsustainable export front-running.
- The year-over-year change in the PMIs still points to sub-6% GDP growth; a warning to rosy consensus…
- …The RBI’s consumer survey shows that the recovery in planned spending is starting to top out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
- …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
- Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
- …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
- …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
- Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts from the RBI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI voted unanimously for a second 25bp rate cut and a shift in stance to “accommodative”.
- Its softer CPI forecasts now see below-target inflation persisting until the end of this year…
- …Opening the door to at least two more cuts—our baseline—more than the consensus for just one.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
