Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)

23 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Little holiday cheer from EZ consumers, but spend should rise

  • EZ consumer confidence dipped at year-end, but consumers’ spending should hold up anyway. 
  • Risks are balanced; inflation in items bought regularly is rising, but the saving rate remains high. 
  • EZ current account figures show services exports started Q4 on a weak footing, the same as goods.

December 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB TO HOLD THE LINE AS BOE AND FED CUT FURTHER...

  • …ITS NEXT MOVE WILL LIKELY BE A HIKE, IN 2027

EZ Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, December 2025

In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.

Global Datanote: ECB Rate Decision, December 2025

In one line: On hold, chances of further easing still slim to none.

22 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Another dovish German survey, but stronger gauges in France and Italy

  • Germany’s IFO BCI fell again in December and points to downside risks to our Q4 call.
  • France’s INSEE & Italy’s ISTAT surveys, meanwhile, rose implying a pick up in activity at year-end.
  • The Eurozone’s construction sector is likely to have come out of recession in Q4.

19 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB sticks to "all options on the table" type of communication

  • The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% for the third straight meeting yesterday, as widely expected. 
  • Its new forecasts, showing growth at potential and inflation at target, suggest no further easing. 
  • The next rate move will likely be up, in 2027; we see two 25bp hikes, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.

18 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will edge up before dropping in January

  • EZ inflation is now thought to have held steady in November, rather than edged up. 
  • It has still averaged above the ECB’s forecast so far in Q4; the Bank will stand pat today. 
  • Our forecasts show EZ inflation rising in December before falling to a trough of 1.7% in Q1.

EZ Datanote: ZEW, Germany, November 2025 & Trade Balance, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Pointing to upside risks to our call for French GDP to fall in Q4. 

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independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence