- In one line: Jump in new orders obscures underlying weakness
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Growth slows as capex falls, but services hold up.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Growth slows as capex falls, but services hold up.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - August payrolls likely will maintain the pressure for looser Fed policy
- EUROZONE - ECB’s easing cycle is over; risks now tilting to rate hikes, in 2027
- UK - Insolvencies holding steady despite the barrage of headwinds
- CHINA+ - Chinese manufacturers tolerate tariff shifts, but small firms struggle
- EM ASIA - BI’s urgency to cut faster since July in context; expect at least one more
- LATAM - Banxico slows pace of easing as core inflation pressures persist
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Brazil’s Q2 GDP growth slowed sharply, as temporary supports fade and monetary tightening bites.
- Household consumption and services showed resilience, but capex saw renewed weakness.
- Peru’s inflation is firmly anchored, giving BCRP flexibility to balance demand and external uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- We expect CPI inflation to hold at 3.8% in August, as a jump in food prices offsets a correction in airfares.
- We see upside risk to our call after strong flash Eurozone food CPI inflation.
- Gilts suffer from a global sell-off and UK-specific risks; Ms. Reeves needs to aim for proper fiscal headroom.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Inflation in Brazil eased to 5.0% in August, helped by falling food prices and stronger BRL support.
- GDP growth slowed sharply in Q2, as earlier momentum in agriculture, industry and services faded.
- US tariffs and widening external deficits remain risks, keeping the COPOM cautious and Selic rate at 15%.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
