Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
In one line: Core is too strong for another rate cut in Q4.
Rebound in mining and quarrying boosts Malaysia’s Q3 GDP past expectations
Export growth accelerates to one of the fastest rates this year
In one line: Narrowing further; drag from goods trade on GDP eased in Q3.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- In one line: A modest improvement, but risks remain biased to the downside.
- Homebase data point to steady employment growth, and WARN data indicate layoffs remain low...
- ...But Indeed job postings are falling at a faster pace, and Empire State hiring intentions have weakened.
- High mortgage rates and consumers’ low confidence imply higher homebuilder optimism won’t last.
- August’s modest IBC-BR rebound masks persistent weakness across Brazil’s key sectors.
- Retail and services show a tentative stabilisation, but tight credit and high rates continue to hurt demand.
- Fiscal transfers offer temporary support, but restrictive policy will keep growth subdued in 2026.
- The ballooning in India’s trade gap in September was due to gold imports, but beware US exports.
- Singapore’s Q3 GDP print surprised to the upside, at 2.9%, but the headline slowdown is far from over…
- …The MAS expects this to be the case too, implying the bar to fresh policy easing is still high.
- GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in August, after falling by a downwardly revised 0.1% in July.
- GDP growth will match our call of 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, below the MPC’s forecast, 0.4%.
- Underlying GDP growth has slowed due to Budget uncertainty but is still close to potential.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
- In one line: Blame yet another sudden spike in gold imports, though exports aren’t helping either.
In one line: Down sharply; unsurprising given drop in German output.
In one line: Mostly base effects, the trend remains subdued.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent;
another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025
be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we
still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- The next forecast round from the OBR will likely show
the Chancellor’s headroom has become a £25B hole.
- We think the government will target headroom of
£20B, requiring £35B in tax hikes and spending cuts.
- Stealth, sin, property and pensions taxes will fill most
of the black hole in our view.
- China’s loan growth slowed in September, indicative of
weak credit demand, notably among corporates.
- M1 growth surged, but this likely reflects the robust
stock market, rather than domestic demand reviving.
- The PBoC is likely to save policy rate cuts to stabilise
sentiment if US-China trade frictions worsen severely.
- Brazil — President Lula gains ground amid tensions
- Mexico — Trade, security and stability
- Chile — Conservatives hold ground prior to crucial vote
- Corporate balance sheets look healthy in aggregate;
private credit is a small and stable part of the picture.
- Mortgage refinancing is continuing to reverse its
mid-September surge; expect low levels next year too.
- The Empire State survey signals renewed impetus in
factory gate inflation; fingers crossed it’s an outlier.
Rock-bottom response rate casts doubt over reliability.
