Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Households thought weaker inflation trends would be only temporary, and expectations will jump sharply now energy prices have surged.
- In one line: Higher energy costs will weigh on the trade balance.
- In one line:January disappointment partly driven by erratic sectors that will rebound, but we shave our Q1 growth call to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
In one line: Higher energy costs will make a bad situation worse.
In one line: On track for 2% by May.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
- Mexico’s industrial output fell sharply in January as key sub-sectors weakened simultaneously.
- Soft external demand, tight financial conditions and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity.
- Infrastructure spending and US supply-chain integration will likely support a gradual recovery in H2.
- Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
- …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
- Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.
- We expect little improvement in China’s consumption activity in January-to-February in the data out today...
- ...Falling car sales should off set higher holiday spending, while the FAI improvement will be slow.
- Government-bond issuance continues to prop up broad credit growth; corporate credit should edge up.
- Inflation in France snapped back in February and is now headed for 2% by May.
- Eurozone industry stumbled at the start of 2026, and another energy-price shock weighs on the outlook.
- March’s European Council meeting could provide hints on support measures for EZ industry.
- Markets are pricing a more persistent energy-price rise as the war in Iran continues.
- As a result, markets have started to price in higher medium- as well as short-term inflation.
- We see Bank Rate on hold throughout 2026, but that is sensitive to energy and the government’s response.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
- In one line: War in the Middle East will hit housing market sentiment in the coming months.
Brace for a potential inflation hit to Malaysian retail sales growth this year
- QCEW data suggest payrolls probably fell by about 10K per month in the six months to September.
- The gap between first and final payroll estimates is trending at about 70K, still big relative to history.
January’s jump in housing starts will unwind; population growth is slow and affordability
- stretched.
- Brazil’s February inflation confirms the disinflation trend, but the oil-price surge carries upside risk.
- Higher oil prices could delay the COPOM’s easing cycle, keeping financial conditions tight.
- Retail sales started the year strongly, but low confidence signals fragile consumption.
- Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
- We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
- …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.
- China’s exports sustained a robust performance in the first two months of 2026...
- ...Meaning policymakers feel little pressure to spur domestic demand in the near term.
- Falling land sales in the first two months point to sustained property investment weakness.
- Safe-haven flows have pushed the Swiss franc close to record highs against the euro and US dollar.
- The risk of an energy shock has weakened the euro, making it harder for the SNB to weaken the franc.
- Appreciation driven by risk-on sentiment will offset downward pressure from interest rate differentials.
