Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
In one line: Terrible, but also a terrible leading indicator.
In one line: Underwhelming, but we see further gains in early Q4.
- EZ retail spending growth slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.8% in Q2….
- ....but overall consumption growth likely was decent, and we look for more of the same in Q4.
- Rebound in German manufacturing was tepid in September, but output likely rose again in October.
In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.
In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH
- …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
- In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
- Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
- Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
