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Datanotes
Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release
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Andres Abadia
Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX.Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets.Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist.Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.
Pantheon Macroeconomics U.S. Economy Discussion with Ian Shepherdson
CFA Sweden hosting Pantheon Macroeconomics
Products and Services
Our Independent Economic Research is presented in a number of different formats
Robert Wood
Rob Wood topped the Sunday Times annual ranking of forecasters for the UK economy in 2020, and has earned plaudits for his forecasting
UK Housing Watch
40 illuminating charts, covering all aspects of the market, followed by a detailed forecast page.
Duncan Wrigley
Duncan produces the China+ Service for Pantheon, covering China, Japan and Korea. He was previously Chief Strategist at Everbright Securities International.
Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018
We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.
Melanie Debono
Melanie joined Pantheon in 2021 with nearly a decade's experience in independent economic research. She focuses on the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on Italy and Spain, and also covers Switzerland and SNB policy.
Kelvin Lam
Kelvin Lam has spent a decade and a half working in financial institutions in London and Hong Kong, focusing on macroeconomic research.
Samuel Tombs
Samuel Tombs has won multiple awards for his UK forecasts. He had the highest average forecast score in Bloomberg's 2021 panel
Weekly Economic Monitor
Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia
About Us
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic research to financial market professionals around the world
Oliver Allen
Oliver joined Pantheon in January 2024 to focus on the U.S. economy. Oliver brings several years' experience in independent macro research
Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes is an experienced macro-economist who spent 18 years at economic consultancy Capital Economics, latterly as Chief Economist.
U.S. Webinar February 2026: Has the Labor Market Already Turned a Corner?
Most Indicators Suggest it Hasn't
EZ Webinar January 2026: Dovish Inflation Data Set Up a Nervy Q1 for the ECB
Eurozone Webinar January 2026
EZ Webinar February 2026: What Would it Take for the ECB to Cut in H1?
Eurozone Webinar February 2026
UK Webinar October 2025: Can the Budget Bring Back Rate Cuts?
...One More Cut in February, but Inflation is Still Sticky
US Webinar September 2025: Is the Consumer Slowdown Already Over?
Real Income Outlook Implies Recent Pick-Up is a False Dawn
UK Webinar March 2026: How Long Will the MPC Have to Wait to Cut?
...The Rest of the Year if the Energy Futures are Sustained
EZ Webinar 9th December 2025: Will the ECB and SNB Hold the Line as the FED and BOE Cut?
Eurozone Webinar December 2025
Ausbiz - China's Demand-side Problem
Duncan Wrigley, Chief China+ economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, views the upcoming plenum as a key moment for China's economy.
CNBC - Property Sector Still Providing a Massive Drag but There are Profits of Strength
Duncan Wrigley, chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the latest economic data from China.
Our Chairman & Editor-in-Chief Ian Shepherdson, Joins Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss November Payrolls
'We continue to look for a fairly muted 250k rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a 125k trend'
Fortune: Top Economist Says Latest Jobs Data Shows a 'Jobless Expansion' with no Historical Precedent
- And it's 'gut-wrenching' for the middle class
Financial Times: Unhedged: Why the FED's Balance Sheet May Grow Again
*Requires Financial Times full subscription
Financial Times: Unhedged: Is the US Consumer Going Soft?
*Requires Financial Times full subscription
Fortune: Elon Musk Says He Warned Trump Against Tariffs
U.S. manufacturers blame this for a turn to more offshoring and diminishing American factory jobs
Reuters: Brazil's economic activity expands 2.5% in 2025 as agriculture cushions slowdown, central bank says
Job openings hit more the five-year low
Inquirer.Net: US Consumer Inflation Holds Steady, but Tariff Risks Persist
August 5, 2025, 7:18AM EDT
Fortune: Stocks Leap on Palantir Earnings, but Goldman Warns the U.S. 'is Near Stall Speed'
August 5, 2025, 7:18AM EDT
4 November 2025 LatAm Monitor BanRep holds rates as inflation risks persist; Chile's recovery continues
BanRep holds rates as inflation risks persist; Chile's recovery continues
EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, September 2025
In one line: Disappointing rebound; we don't trust it.
17 November 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's 10% GDP target in theory achievable, with M2 soaring
Vietnam's 10% GDP target in theory achievable, with M2 soaring
20 November 2025 China+ Monitor China's residential market still has a way to go until recovery
China's residential market still has a way to go until recovery
21 November 2025 UK Monitor Political risk will keep gilt yields elevated after the Budget
Political risk will keep gilt yields elevated after the Budget
PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 November 2025
Shaping up to be a very anti-climatic Q4 for IndiaMalaysia's recent inflation spike could be over
China+ Datanote: Official Mfg PMI, China, November
In one line: China's NBS manufacturing PMI shows mild improvement, but core industries cherished by policymakers weakens in November.
China+ Datanote: Exports, Korea, November
In one line: Korea's resilient November exports powered by robust semiconductor demand
PM Datanote: Exports, Korea, October
In one line: Semiconductors and South America shipments drive Korea's WDA export rebound.
PM Datanote: Current Account Balance, China, Q3 (Preliminary)
In one line: China's current account surplus widens in Q3 compared to a year ago on record goods exports.
PM Datanote: 20 Day Export, Korea, November
In one line: Korea's WDA 20 day export growth moderates in November despite headline rebound.
8 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Chile's inflation holds steady, firming the case for further BCCh rate cuts
Chile's inflation holds steady, firming the case for further BCCh rate cuts
16 December 2025 LatAm Monitor Kast's mandate signals Chile's return to discipline, and market confidence
Kast's mandate signals Chile's return to discipline, and market confidence
December 2025 - US Economic Chartbook
THE PAUSE IN THE FED'S EASING CYCLE WILL BE BRIEF......THE LABOR MARKET WILL REMAIN WEAK, INFLATION FALL
China+ Datanote: Mfg PMIs, China, December
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs edges back into expansion, but sustainability remains in question
14 January 2026 LatAm Monitor Colombia's structural inflation meets a historic wage shock in 2026
Colombia's structural inflation meets a historic wage shock in 2026
16 January 2026 LatAm Monitor Brazil's growth slows into year-end, but H1 2026 will be better
Brazil's growth slows into year-end, but H1 2026 will be better
19 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian Q4 GDP surprises to the upside, thanks again to the AI boom
Malaysian Q4 GDP surprises to the upside, thanks again to the AI boom
China+ Datanote: PPI, China, December
In one line: China's PPI sees firmer monthly momentum, but sustained reflation remains challenging
China+ Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, January
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports rebound buoyed by base effects; monthly momentum actually slowed in January.
6 February 2026 LatAm Monitor Chile ends 2025 strongly as growth, confidence and policy align
Chile ends 2025 strongly as growth, confidence and policy align
PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, January 2026
Probably overstating the labor market's health.
17 February 2026 China+ Monitor China starting to recognise the need for a fresh property policy
China starting to recognise the need for a fresh property policy
UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January 2026
In one line: Consumers' spending will boost January GDP growth.
24 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor Meet the new US tariff on the EU; (almost) the same as the old one
Meet the new US tariff on the EU; (almost) the same as the old one
PM Datanote: Bi-weekly CPI, Mexico, February, 2025
In one line: Core pressures keep inflation near 4%, limiting Banxico's room to ease.
27 February 2026 LatAm Monitor Argentina's recovery broadens, but inflation pressures re-emerge
Argentina's recovery broadens, but inflation pressures re-emerge
February 2026 Emerging Asia Chartbook
THAI BALLOT AND HOT Q4 GDP NO SILVER BULLET...INDIA'S 2026/27 BUDGET KICKS THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD
PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 March 2026
No post-Ukraine-war like burst, yet, to expect from export growthUnderlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI's range
Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, February 2026
In one line: Underlying price pressures rising, but feel free to ignore the breach of BI's range.
3 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Peru's macroeconomic strength faces electoral test in Q2
Peru's macroeconomic strength faces electoral test in Q2
PM Datanote: Non-Manufacturing PMI, China
In one line: Property and construction weakness drags China's non-manufacturing PMI below 50
4 March 2026 LatAm Monitor Stagnation takes hold as tight policy constrains Brazil
Stagnation takes hold as tight policy constrains Brazil
UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, February 2026
In one line: Consumers' confidence should recover in 2026 as the fundamentals improve.
PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 March 2026
Vietnam February Trade, Vietnam February Retail Sales, Vietnam February CPI, Philippines January Volume of Net Sales
PM Datanote: Inflation, Chile, February, 2026
In one line: Inflation surprised to the downside, reinforcing Chile's disinflation trend.
PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, February
In one line: China's FX reserves rose further in February amid RMB strength, partly driven by exporters repatriating overseas USD proceeds.
PM Datanote: Foreign Reserves, China, January
In one line: China's FX reserves jumped in January on factors beyond valuation effects.
PM Datanote: PPI, China, January
In one line: China's PPI deflation eases further in January, but improvements were patchy.
PM Datanote: 20-Day Exports, Korea, February
In one line: Korea's 20-day exports surge in February on semiconductors, despite fewer working days, as DRAM prices soar in Q1
13 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Will the Middle East crisis lead to a pullback in Malaysian spending?
Will the Middle East crisis lead to a pullback in Malaysian spending?
16 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Inflation in France to hit 2% by May as energy prices surge
Inflation in France to hit 2% by May as energy prices surge
Global Datanote: Flash Manufacturing PMI, Japan, March
In one line: domestic demand weakened, while manufacturers' sentiment was resilient
EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, February 2026
In one line: Fiscal support isn't going to save Spanish consumer spending in H1.
UK Datanote: UK GfK Consumers' Confidence Survey, March 2026
In one line: Consumers' confidence has further to fall in 2026.
UK Datanote: Retail Sales, February 2026
In one line: Retail sales supporting GDP in Q1, but consumers' spending growth will ease in the coming months.
Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, March 2026
In one line: A swift return to BI's target range thanks to base effects.
