Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Worst of the deficit widening in Thailand is hopefully in the rear-view mirror
- In one line: Still somewhat resilient to the Middle East shock.
- In one line: A much more comfortable hold.
India's June PMIs show immediate relief on prices post-MoU, not so much for activity
Singapore's inflation shock seems to have already faded
- The US-Iran deal barely registered in India’s headline PMIs, which still point to sub-par growth…
- …The price indices continue to cool, at least, but the risks to still-low core inflation remain to the upside.
- Singaporean inflation was quite soft in May; we see broad headline stability from here on out.
- In one line: Hit mainly by refined oil products, but overall momentum is sagging.
Inflation risks seems to have passed in Malaysia
Export growth soars, once again
- In one line: A hold, as widely expected.
- Malaysian exports soared more than most analysts were expecting, as growth hit 45.3% in May…
- …Electronics exports and petroleum export revenue growth is likely to moderate in the coming quarters.
- We think inflation has peaked, as it rose to just 2.0% in May, below the 2.1% consensus.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
- The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
- The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.
Singapore's NODX growth reaches a new high
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
- …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
- We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.
- In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.
- In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.
- The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
- WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
- The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
Malaysian spending feels the impact of the Middle East shock
- Two Malaysian states are now holding elections, thus raising calls for a general election...
- ...and implying changes to fuel subsidies or an expansion of the tax base are likely off the table.
- This probably won’t move bond yields, but it reduces fiscal headroom and damages credibility.
