Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Remarkable, and only partly unsustainable.
- Remarkable, and only partly unsustainable
- WPI inflation in India surprised to the upside in August, stressing sticky core pressures upstream...
- ...We maintain that these eventually will be passed on to consumers, forcing the RBI to change tack.
- The softer than expected CPI print was all about food base effects; relying on this is a non-starter.
- All eyes on the October meeting
- Market expectations for Vietnam finally are moving towards our below-consensus projections for 2021.
- The outlook for 2022 remains solid, though, as we see clear light at the end of the Covid tunnel.
- The money and credit data for the first half of 2021 were robust, pointing to near-6% growth next year.
- In one line: Post-Delta rebound, complete, but consumers aren’t helping.
- Demand was hit before the Delta curbs; brace yourselves for a more painful August report
- Exports are still struggling to play catch-up, and imports are now rolling over
- Inflation in the Philippines spiked in August, reinforcing the policy constraints on the BSP.
- The reacceleration of the headline rate is far from over, with non-core pressures still likely to build.
- The threat of prolonged deflation in Thailand is minimal, despite the marginal slip in August.
- The door remains firmly shut for a surprise rate cut
- Flirting with deflation, due to food base effects and Covid support measures
- The reopening of tourism in Thailand is bearing fruit, but not enough yet to make a difference...
- ...As such, consumer spending will continue to be exposed to the ebb and flow of local restrictions.
- Underemployment is back down to the pre-Covid rate; tight labour supply remains the major concern.
- India's Q2 was a huge setback; real GDP fell back down to 84% of the pre-pandemic trend.
- A respectable bounce is shaping up in Q3, though, and talk of a potential third wave seems overblown.
- Non-existent spending and capex plans, plus lagged oil effects, should hit momentum hard in Q4.
- The slump in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- India’s post-Delta bounce loses some momentum
- Food base effects continue to push up inflation in Indonesia
- The current downturn in retail sales in Vietnam is now worse than the one suffered last year...
- ...But some relaxation of restrictions is likely this month, with the underlying Covid data improving.
- We have cut our Q3 GDP growth forecast—again— to 3.0% from 4.0%, due to the worsening trade hit.
- In one line: Disappointing, but not disastrous.
- GDP growth in India likely beat expectations easily in Q2, jumping to 31.6% from 1.6% in Q1.
- The V-shaped recovery in consumption within Q2 was key, muting the overall hit from the Delta wave.
- Investment and public spending were hurt even less badly, while net trade provided a huge cushion.
- Bank Indonesia's debt monetisation arrangement with the government has been extended into 2022.
- We maintain the government eventually will go cold turkey to show markets it still is fiscally disciplined.
- The extension could be just for Fed Taper insurance, as the economy remains on fairly solid ground.
- Two-way trade in Thailand continues to deteriorate, with Delta hurting both locally and internationally.
- Orders data suggest that imports have more room to fall, enough to keep the small surplus alive.
- Demand should improve by year-end, while the baht's plunge bodes well for exports longer term.