Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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15 Sept 2021 Ignore India's Soft CPI for August, the Real Story is the WPI Surprise

  • WPI inflation in India surprised to the upside in August, stressing sticky core pressures upstream...
  • ...We maintain that these eventually will be passed on to consumers, forcing the RBI to change tack.
  • The softer than expected CPI print was all about food base effects; relying on this is a non-starter.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 Sept 2021 2021 Has Been Grim, but Should Vietnam Worry About 2022 as Well?

  • Market expectations for Vietnam finally are moving towards our below-consensus projections for 2021.
  • The outlook for 2022 remains solid, though, as we see clear light at the end of the Covid tunnel.
  • The money and credit data for the first half of 2021 were robust, pointing to near-6% growth next year.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, July 2021

  • In one line: Post-Delta rebound, complete, but consumers aren’t helping.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia


  • Demand was hit before the Delta curbs; brace yourselves for a more painful August report
  • Exports are still struggling to play catch-up, and imports are now rolling over

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 Sept 2021 Talk of a Rate Cut in the Philippines Should Now End, Permanently

  • Inflation in the Philippines spiked in August, reinforcing the policy constraints on the BSP.
  • The reacceleration of the headline rate is far from over, with non-core pressures still likely to build.
  • The threat of prolonged deflation in Thailand is minimal, despite the marginal slip in August.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia


  • Flirting with deflation, due to food base effects and Covid support measures

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 Sept 2021 Tourism in Thailand won't Recover Fast Enough to Rescue Q3

  • The reopening of tourism in Thailand is bearing fruit, but not enough yet to make a difference...
  • ...As such, consumer spending will continue to be exposed to the ebb and flow of local restrictions.
  • Underemployment is back down to the pre-Covid rate; tight labour supply remains the major concern.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Sept 2021 India's Year is Shaping Up to be a Smaller Mirror Image of 2020

  • India's Q2 was a huge setback; real GDP fell back down to 84% of the pre-pandemic trend.
  • A respectable bounce is shaping up in Q3, though, and talk of a potential third wave seems overblown.
  • Non-existent spending and capex plans, plus lagged oil effects, should hit momentum hard in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia


  • The slump in ASEAN manufacturing continues
  • India’s post-Delta bounce loses some momentum
  • Food base effects continue to push up inflation in Indonesia

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 Sept 2021 Vietnam's Q3 Goes from Bad to Worse; China Adds Insult to Injury

  • The current downturn in retail sales in Vietnam is now worse than the one suffered last year...
  • ...But some relaxation of restrictions is likely this month, with the underlying Covid data improving.
  • We have cut our Q3 GDP growth forecast—again— to 3.0% from 4.0%, due to the worsening trade hit.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

31 Aug 2021 Look for a Positive Surprise from India's Q2 GDP Report Today

  • GDP growth in India likely beat expectations easily in Q2, jumping to 31.6% from 1.6% in Q1.
  • The V-shaped recovery in consumption within Q2 was key, muting the overall hit from the Delta wave.
  • Investment and public spending were hurt even less badly, while net trade provided a huge cushion.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 Aug 2021 The Extension of BI's "Burden Sharing" Could End Before it Starts

  • Bank Indonesia's debt monetisation arrangement with the government has been extended into 2022.
  • We maintain the government eventually will go cold turkey to show markets it still is fiscally disciplined.
  • The extension could be just for Fed Taper insurance, as the economy remains on fairly solid ground.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 Aug 2021 The Baht's Sell-Off is Light at the End of the Tunnel for Thai Exports

  • Two-way trade in Thailand continues to deteriorate, with Delta hurting both locally and internationally.
  • Orders data suggest that imports have more room to fall, enough to keep the small surplus alive.
  • Demand should improve by year-end, while the baht's plunge bodes well for exports longer term.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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