Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Can’t catch a break.
- In one line: Exports end 2025 with a bang; those to the US continue to defy gravity.
India showing no care to the US-led geopolitical noise
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75% yesterday, in line with expectations, prolonging its ongoing pause.
- For now, AI-driven export strength should continue, meaning no rate cuts in 2026.
- Subdued inflation should leave the door open to a rate cut in the event of an economic shock.
- In one line: Another no-move meeting, with optimism building.
- In one line: Just about enough to salvage Q4.
- Bank Indonesia remained on hold yesterday, a position we expect to continue for all of 2026…
- …Worries over BI’s independence seem overblown; note its sovereign debt holding is no longer rising.
- Core IP in India firmed up more in December, but Q4 on the whole, and the details are uninspiring.
- Malaysian exports blew past expectations in December; analysts underestimated the AI boom...
- …We have upgraded our 2026 GDP forecast, as we think AI demand will remain firm for some time.
- Malaysia’s inflation ticked up in December, but we consider this a one-off not a re-acceleration.
AI boom saves Malaysian exports
Malaysian inflation shows a surprise rise
- Malaysia’s Q4 GDP growth beat expectations, at 5.7%, largely because of export manufacturing...
- …This bolsters our call for the BNM to hold rates this Thursday, saving policy space for later.
- We think economic growth should be stronger in 2026, but this is contingent on the AI boom.
- In one line: Their latest slip aside, exports to the US are seeing some consolidation.
More confirmation that food price pressures are coming back in India
- Conservatives within Vietnam’s ruling party look to be reasserting themselves ahead of the Congress…
- …The big U-turn on the annual credit quota suggests to us that 2026 will see one rate hike.
- Thailand’s opposition PP looks poised to win in February, but acute political uncertainty will linger.
- Food deflation in India is receding quickly, pushing headline inflation up further, to 1.3% in December…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 average forecast to 4.1%, but underlying inflation remains very benign.
- Indonesian retail sales growth has hit a 20-month high, despite the big holes in discretionary goods.
Recovering sales growth in Indonesia hiding big holes under the surface
- In one line: Export growth eases, but Q4 GDP remains on track for a millennia-high.
Sales growth in Malaysia dips
- Taiwan’s AI boom is losing momentum, with December seeing the first cooling in exports…
- …Export growth will continue to slow in 2026, due to high base effects, despite aggressive AI spending.
- Malaysian retail sales growth slid in December, but this probably won’t matter much for Q4 GDP.
Reviving food inflation should soon return Thai CPI to the black
