EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, April 2026

• In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 May 2026

Sales growth is souring in Indonesia, for a handful of reasons

13 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's household backdrop still healthy, but more cracks appearing

• Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
• The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
• Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
  
  

12 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian retail sales supported Q1 GDP, but that's probably over now

• Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
• This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
• This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 May 2026

Another quarter of lacklustre consumption in Malaysia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, April

• In one line: Moderating; finally.

11 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Is this the end of Taiwanese exports' invincible acceleration?

• Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
• …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
• BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, April

• In one line: Potentially the peak.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Negara Malaysia Decision, May 2026

• In one line: No surprises.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2026

The main reason why the BSP should be reluctant to hike further

8 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' GDP going from bad to worse; we cut our 2026 call to 4%

• Philippine GDP growth missed expectations in Q1, slowing to a new post-Covid low of 2.8%, from 3.0%.
• Public spending is reawakening but consumption matters more, and the outlook is still very difficult.
• We’ve lowered our 2026 and 2027 GDP forecasts to 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively, from 4.8% and 5.2%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2026

Iran war ’saves’ Thailand from prolonged deflation
Already signs of an inflation squeeze on Philippine sales

7 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN CPI hot in April, but now likely to cool

• April CPI releases from ASEAN have so far mostly surprised to the upside, barring Indonesia…
• …We’ve raised our 2026 calls for the Philippines and Vietnam to well over 5.0%, but the oil hit is fading.
• Indonesian authorities will now likely be compelled to raise subsidised fuel prices by 5%, at least.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 May 2026

Indonesia’s sturdy Q1 GDP is only skin-deep
ASEAN manufacturing continues to lose steam
Another BSP rate hike now seems likely, however misguided
Singapore's March retail sales doesn't look as good as it does under the surface

6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

• GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
• But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
• We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

5 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Heat map check: war hitting India fast; big exporters mostly unfazed

• Our heat maps show only India is feeling the war’s pinch, highlighting its Middle East exposure…
• …By contrast, the main exporters are still going strong; no signs yet of the chip boom losing steam.
• The RBI’s surveys show Indian consumer sentiment is already wobbling even without fuel-price rises.

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, Taiwan, Q1

• In one line: Smashing expectations, again.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Initial signs of a squeeze from the war fallout.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2026

A broadly constructive deterioration of the Philippines' trade balance in Q1

1 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's Q1 GDP growth beats all expectations, hitting 13.7%

• Taiwan’s Q1 GDP growth reached new heights, at 13.7%, smashing all expectations...
• …Consumption has been stronger than expected since Q4, but we think this is a false flag.
• We still expect GDP growth to moderate in 2026, due to the Iran war and high base effects.