Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
Brace for more eye-wateringly strong export growth in Malaysia.
- BI surprised almost everyone with a larger-than-expected 50bp rate hike, amid the IDR’s struggles…
- …This increase should be a one-off; pressure on the IDR will ease and the CPI target still looks secure.
- Malaysian export growth hit 37% in April, as the AI boom further boosted electronics exports.
Unsurprising up-tick in Malaysian inflation.
- Non-oil domestic export growth in Singapore smashed expectations in April, hitting 24.5%...
- …Thanks to continued growth in electronics exports, but also other random unexpected spikes.
- Malaysian CPI ticked up slightly in April, but the more important core inflation moderated.
- GDP growth in Thailand rose unexpectedly in Q1, to 2.8%, but inventories hid a broad domestic easing…
- …We maintain our 2.2% growth forecast for 2026, implying a sustained slowdown to 1.0% by Q4.
- India’s scorching WPI print was no surprise to us, and we find much comfort in still-tepid WPI food.
Thai growth sees a natural payback from the interim government pop
Analysts were also too gloomy on Singapore exports
- In one line: Some reassuring developments, but take the y/y leaps with a pinch of salt.
- Malaysia may be heading for an early election, but beneath the surface ethnic tensions are brewing.
- These tensions are coupled with rising religious conservatism, particularly among Malaysia’s youth.
- Governance is likely to become more religious, to fend off Islamist parties, hurting long-term growth.
- In one line: Hot, thanks to the naturally delayed oil boost.
- Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
- ...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
- We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.
- In one line: Food price pressures at the margin are collapsing.
Sales growth is souring in Indonesia, for a handful of reasons
- Retail sales growth in Indonesia slowed in March, but Q1 overall was the best quarter in two years.
- The historically tight job market is finally reviving wage growth, but cracks are surfacing in the former.
- Income-used data continue to show rising caution, with the share for savings now above average.
- Malaysia retail sales growth moderated slightly in March but remained robust in Q1 overall.
- This was before the onset of the Middle East crisis though, which will hang over Q2 sales.
- This pressure will be compounded by the government’s gradual withdrawal of fuel subsidies.
Another quarter of lacklustre consumption in Malaysia
- In one line: Moderating; finally.
- Taiwan’s export growth finally moderated in April, to 39%; adverse base effects have kicked in…
- …Q2 will also be plague d by the supply-side constraints that are showing up in the PMIs.
- BNM held the OPR at 2.75%; the Bank has little reason to panic when core inflation remains benign.
- In one line: Potentially the peak.
