Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
India's June PMIs show immediate relief on prices post-MoU, not so much for activity
Singapore's inflation shock seems to have already faded
- In one line: Hit mainly by refined oil products, but overall momentum is sagging.
Inflation risks seems to have passed in Malaysia
Export growth soars, once again
- In one line: A hold, as widely expected.
- Malaysian exports soared more than most analysts were expecting, as growth hit 45.3% in May…
- …Electronics exports and petroleum export revenue growth is likely to moderate in the coming quarters.
- We think inflation has peaked, as it rose to just 2.0% in May, below the 2.1% consensus.
- In one line: An insurance hike, on top of last week's off-cycle insurance hike.
- In one line: Still anxious about inflation, in spite of recent positive developments.
- BI is becoming more certain that the Fed will hike, pointing to one more rate rise, though we disagree.
- The BSP’s higher CPI forecasts are bemusing, but it’s now rightly mulling an end to tightening.
- The CBC holds, as expected, while also still seeing 2026 average CPI staying below the key 2% mark.
Singapore's NODX growth reaches a new high
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic export growth reached an astonishing new high, at 38.4% in May…
- …And Q2 should be stronger than we had previously expected, thanks to oil exports and electronics.
- We’ve raised our 2026 current account forecast for India to -1.5% of GDP, from -3.0%, with oil receding.
- In one line: Demand from the Middle East continues to normalise; oil boost to imports will eventually correct.
- In one line: June should mark the peak before a precipitous collapse in H2.
- The improved outlook for global oil prices is unlikely to benefit Indian consumers immediately, if at all.
- WPI will almost certainly peak soon, however; we see a lower 2026 average of 6.5% and 2027 of 0.9%.
- The mean reversion up in food inflation will pause briefly, but upside risks, especially for 2027, prevail.
- In one line: Mean-reversion up in food inflation should now start to plateau.
Malaysian spending feels the impact of the Middle East shock
- Two Malaysian states are now holding elections, thus raising calls for a general election...
- ...and implying changes to fuel subsidies or an expansion of the tax base are likely off the table.
- This probably won’t move bond yields, but it reduces fiscal headroom and damages credibility.
War hit to Indonesian retail sales is here, and we've likely not seen the worst of it
- BI shocked with an off-cycle 25bp hike this week, likely removing the need for another one next week.
- Its Fed and C/A views are overly bearish, while the foreign equity rout may be just a one-off adjustment.
- Retail sales growth crashed into the red in April, somewhat unfairly, but the worst is still to come.
- Taiwan’s exports destroyed calls for stable growth, soaring by 51.7% in May, despite the Iran war.
- We are upgrading our full-year GDP growth forecast to 9.6%, even higher than 2025’s pace.
- Inflation breached the CBC’s 2% “red line” in May, but we are still not expecting a discount rate hike.
- The RBI’s twin worries, over fading growth and rising inflation, point to a continued rate standstill…
- …We’ve upped our 2026 growth call to 7.0%, but the details of the ‘strong’ Q1 GDP aren’t convincing.
- Philippine and Thai CPI surprised to the downside in May, as we predicted; the BSP is still likely to hike.
