Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
In one line: Boosted once again by capital goods.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
In one line: Looking good for a Q2 rebound in manufacturing.
- A leap in construction boosted German industry in April; core manufacturing is still lagging the surveys.
- Energy-intensive industry in Germany is rebounding, and relative PPI trends point to further gains.
- Nowcast models point to downside risk to German GDP growth in Q2, but it’s still early days.
- The ECB will hike this week, commencing a modest tightening as the US-Iran war drives up inflation.
- An upgrade to the ECB’s 2027 inflation forecast likely will be the main hawkish flash point this week.
- The ECB, faced with the risk of doing too little or too much in light of rising inflation, prefers the latter.
In one line: A setback, but not enough to reverse recent strength.
In one line: Early days, but industry looks on track for a solid Q2.
- A crash in Irish GDP stung EZ growth in Q1, but the trend ex-Ireland was firm before the US-Iran war.
- We see EZ GDP, ex-Ireland, increasing by 0.1% in Q2, before rising a touch quicker in Q3 and Q4, to 0.2%.
- A slowdown in consumption still lies ahead as growth in real incomes takes a hit.
- Swiss inflation was stable at 0.6% in May; we expect it to stay within the 0-to-2% target band during 2027…
- …The SNB will hold rates this month and throughout 2026. Its next move will be a 25bp hike in Q1 2027.
- Revisions to Irish GDP suggest Eurozone GDP fell slightly in Q1, threatening a technical recession in H1.
In one line: All set for a 25bp rate hike next week.
- DM central banks are missing their inflation targets; the ECB seems most keen to rectify this.
- A higher inflation target would be no panacea for the ECB, faced with successive supply-side shocks.
- Our interest rate forecast is consistent with a real policy rate at zero by the middle of 2027.
ECB WILL TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO RISING INFLATION…
- …BUT HOW FAR WILL THE BANK GO?
- Eurozone core and headline inflation rose further inMay, both matching our forecasts.
- The ECB will hike by 25bp next week, and we still look for a back-to-back rate increase in July.
- The EZ’s inflation fever is now breaking a bit, but we still see a rebound to 3.5% by the end of the year.
- Domestic demand, ex-inventories, in Switzerland was flat in Q1 amid volatile inventories and net trade.
- Swiss CPI likely rose to 0.9% in May, from 0.6%. The SNB will stand pat in Q2 but raise inflation forecasts.
- EZ money supply and German retail sales are slowing, but inflation expectations remain elevated.
In one line: Poor, but risks are tilted towards an upward revision.
- Eurozone inflation likely rose further in May, by 0.2pp to 3.2%, as core inflation rebounded.
- Inflation in Germany, France and Spain surprised to the downside, but Italy was a punchy upside surprise.
- Italian Q1 growth was revised up, but we still look for a sharp slowdown in Q2 as consumption slows.
- Energy inflation likely took a breather in May, but the EZ core will be pushed higher by a jump in services.
- EC economic sentiment rose slightly in May, painting a more positive picture than the PMIs.
- The fall in Spanish retail sales in April sends an ominous signal for EZ consumers’ spending in Q2.
