Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The end of September rate cut hopes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in Brazil eased to 5.0% in August, helped by falling food prices and stronger BRL support.
- GDP growth slowed sharply in Q2, as earlier momentum in agriculture, industry and services faded.
- US tariffs and widening external deficits remain risks, keeping the COPOM cautious and Selic rate at 15%.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
- …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
- Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China's August PMIs diverged, with RatingDog pointing to a soft recovery from the tariff shock...
- ...but the weak official manufacturing gauge indicates sluggish domestic demand, though pricing improved.
- Services activity rose, on the back of stock-market trading and tourism, but construction is on the rocks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The number of people out of work dropped by the most in over three years in July…
- ...As a result, the EZ unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in July and is likely to have held steady in August.
- Labour-market data provide little ammunition for ECB doves in their fight for another rate cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth beat consensus again in Q2, and surveys point to improving momentum so far in Q3.
- Services inflation is proving sticky, as wage growth remains far too strong to deliver 2% inflation.
- Job surveys were weaker than we expected but continue to point to payroll falls easing.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
- ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
- Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.
Samuel TombsUS
- In one line: Solid credit flows and rising mortgage approvals signal confidence amongst business and households.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The housing market is still stuttering after April’s stamp-duty hike, but prices will rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: The fall in the Manufacturing PMI looks like a blip, sentiment should improve as tariff uncertainty abates.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: WDA-export growth holds up despite tariff ructions
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
- In one line: Modest activity gains
Duncan WrigleyGlobal
In one line: China's manufacturing PMIs post modest gains; Korean exports propped up by chip exports
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Still-robust export growth is driving the trade surplus to its highest in years.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
- The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
- We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- History suggests that China’s stock-market rally could boost GDP but won’t do much for consumer sentiment.
- Policymakers will opt for targeted policy support, lest broad easing drives excessive funds into stocks.
- Tokyo headline inflation slowed in August due to energy subsidies; food inflation remains elevated.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
