Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
- In one line: Third time (un)lucky.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
In one line: All set for a rebound into year-end.
In one line: Industry barely budged in early Q3.
In one line: Lifted by rebound in equities.
- In one line: Modestly deanchored inflation expectations warrant caution from the MPC.
- In one line: The underlying trade balance fell erratically in July, but it will remain weak.
- In one line:Q3 growth on track for 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- US - FOMC too nervous about inflation to endorse the market curve
- EUROZONE - Closer to an estimate for the Q1 2026 fall in German energy prices
- UK - CPI preview: nudging up to 3.9% in August as food prices jump
- CHINA+ - China’s ailing domestic demand likely to prompt targeted support
- EM ASIA - EM Asia laggards won’t chip away at the Asian Tigers’ chip dominance
- LATAM - Brazil economy weakens as tight policy and tariffs weigh heavily
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales continued to climb in August, despite the tariffs...
- ...But consumer have endured only one-third of the tariff costs; Q4 sales likely will be much weaker.
- Manufacturing output edged up again in August, but capex is impeded by tariff uncertainty.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in July, with manufacturing and construction the key drags.
- Tentative stabilisation emerges as PMI improves, but trade noise and weak confidence keep risks elevated.
- Peru’s BCRP trims rates toward neutral as inflation eases and activity is resilient; risks still loom, though.
- China’s national residential market continues to fester, as policymakers stick with only targeted support.
- Tier-one city sales are rising on the back of local easing but national sales are still falling.
- More national-level support is likely to be needed to stabilise the market, notably in lower-tier cities.
- Our fair-value model for bunds points to little near-term upside to yields, due to falling US rates.
- We estimate that fiscal stimulus in Germany will add around 30bp to bund yields between now and 2027.
- Overall, we see a slow rise in bund yields to 3% by 2027, implying limited near-term upside.
- Payroll falls are easing as firms complete their adjustment to tax and minimum wage hikes.
- Q2 workforce jobs data suggests payrolls exaggerate weakness, while the unemployment rate is steady.
- A stabilising labour market with firm wage growth will keep the MPC on hold for the rest of the year at least.
In one line: The drag on GDP from net trade in goods is disappearing.
- In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.
- We look for a 0.5% rise in total retail sales in August, slightly above the consensus...
- ...Auto sales likely fell by about 1%, but most indicators of the control measure point to solid growth.
- Homebase data are robust for the payroll survey week; shame they are no longer a bellwether.
- Brazil’s IBC-BR fell again in July, confirming a poor start to Q3 amid broad sectoral weakness.
- Retail and services are slowing as high borrowing costs erode resilience, despite job market support.
- Copom set to hold Selic rate at 15%, signalling prolonged tight policy amid sticky inflation.
- The August bounce in India's inflation should prove short-lived; high food base effects will return…
- …The upward mean-reversion in core CPI is starting to see more cracks and waning momentum.
- We have cut our full-year average forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.3% and 4.2%, respectively.
