UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- In one line: Producer price inflation still set to accelerate in the coming months despite easing energy costs.
- In one line: Easing activity and price pressures suggest rates on hold this year.
THE RUN OF BAD INFLATION NEWS WILL END SHORTLY...
- ...THE MPC NEEDS TO HIKE BANK RATE ONLY ONE LAST TIME
- Wes Streeting leads betting odds for next Chancellor, but we think Mr. Miliband is underpriced.
- Mr. Burnham’s mooted economic advisers have argued for more investment and looser fiscal rules.
- Devolution, welfare reform and more state control of utilities are likely, but fiscal funds will be tight.
- Elevated political uncertainty continued to weigh on business confidence in June, according to the PMI.
- A swift transition of power could boost the PMI in July, but businesses still face much policy uncertainty.
- Still-elevated price pressures support our call that rates will remain on hold this year.
- Gilts welcomed the likely smooth transition to a new prime minister after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation.
- Even so, political risk has offset most of the drag on gilt yields from oil-price falls since their late-April peak.
- Younger people’s waning confidence may signal slowing growth, in contrast to aggregate surveys.
- Andy Burnham is almost certain to become the UK’s next prime minister, but the timeline remains cloudy.
- Timing may prevent an expansionary Budget in 2026, but gilts have rightly priced in longer term fiscal risks.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing at a glacial pace while the labour market steadied in April/May.
- Most rate-setters want an extended Bank Rate hold, though Catherine Mann is weighing a “forceful” hike.
- Risks of a hike remain higher than a cut, with the MPC attentive to upside inflation risks.
- Labour market data mostly surprised in a hawkish direction, suggesting slack is barely rising.
- In one line: Focus on services strength rather than a headline rate dragged down by surprising food and goods inflation slowing.
- In one line: Base effects flatter April house prices, activity will grind down in the coming months.
- Focus on solid services inflation rather than weaker- than-expected headline inflation.
- The headline inflation miss is smaller than it looks and producer prices point to goods weakness reversing.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing only gradually and remains consistent with above target inflation.
- We extend our analysis of gilt spreads over peers to Treasuries and models of daily changes in yields.
- Our models suggest that UK political risk yields are adding 9-to-19bp to 10y gilt-bund spreads.
- The boost to yields from replacing Sir Keir Starmer would offset the impact of a roughly 20% oil price fall.
- We remove our call for a hike in July, looking for Bank Rate to stay on hold through 2026 and 2027.
- The US-Iran deal means we now expect inflation to peak at 3.4%, down from 3.6% before.
- Gilt yields have scope to rise another 7-to-14bp if Mr. Burnham wins this week’s by-election.
- In one line: Inflation expectations show waning faith in the MPC’s ability to hit 2% inflation.
- In one line: Consumer spending growth has slowed only a little since the Iran war started.
- In one line: Political drama likely weighed on the RICS in May, but underlying activity remains weak.
- In one line: GDP still on track to grow 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, despite unwinding fuel hoarding and a doctor's strike cutting output in April.
- In one line: High energy costs begin to feed through to core import price inflation.
- GDP is still on track to rise by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s forecast, 0.1%.
- Inflation expectations increasingly look de-anchored, suggesting second-round inflation effects will kick in.
- The MPC will hold Bank Rate while standing ready to act, but our call for a July hike looks shaky.
HOUSE PRICES DIP IN MARCH...
- ...AND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUBDUED THROUGHOUT 2026
