UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: Focus on services strength rather than a headline rate dragged down by surprising food and goods inflation slowing.
- In one line: Base effects flatter April house prices, activity will grind down in the coming months.
- Focus on solid services inflation rather than weaker- than-expected headline inflation.
- The headline inflation miss is smaller than it looks and producer prices point to goods weakness reversing.
- Underlying services inflation is slowing only gradually and remains consistent with above target inflation.
- We extend our analysis of gilt spreads over peers to Treasuries and models of daily changes in yields.
- Our models suggest that UK political risk yields are adding 9-to-19bp to 10y gilt-bund spreads.
- The boost to yields from replacing Sir Keir Starmer would offset the impact of a roughly 20% oil price fall.
- We remove our call for a hike in July, looking for Bank Rate to stay on hold through 2026 and 2027.
- The US-Iran deal means we now expect inflation to peak at 3.4%, down from 3.6% before.
- Gilt yields have scope to rise another 7-to-14bp if Mr. Burnham wins this week’s by-election.
- In one line: Inflation expectations show waning faith in the MPC’s ability to hit 2% inflation.
- In one line: Consumer spending growth has slowed only a little since the Iran war started.
- In one line: Political drama likely weighed on the RICS in May, but underlying activity remains weak.
- In one line: GDP still on track to grow 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, despite unwinding fuel hoarding and a doctor's strike cutting output in April.
- In one line: High energy costs begin to feed through to core import price inflation.
- GDP is still on track to rise by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q2, above the MPC’s forecast, 0.1%.
- Inflation expectations increasingly look de-anchored, suggesting second-round inflation effects will kick in.
- The MPC will hold Bank Rate while standing ready to act, but our call for a July hike looks shaky.
HOUSE PRICES DIP IN MARCH...
- ...AND ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SUBDUED THROUGHOUT 2026
- Andy Burnham is extremely likely to become the next prime minister if he wins the Makerfield by-election.
- But a raft of U-turns even before he has reached Number 10 leave us with little sense of a ‘grand plan’.
- We see inflation risks, from either higher taxes and spending, or borrowing-funded spending.
- We expect the MPC to vote seven-to-two to hold Bank Rate, with a risk that only Huw Pill votes for a hike.
- Dovish data-flow since the last MPC meeting means that guidance will shift towards being more balanced.
- But rate-setters still need to validate the market curve to maintain tight enough financial conditions.
- We expect payrolls to fall by 15K month-to-month in May after surveys deteriorated.
- The headline unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.0% in April.
- Wage inflation will continue to ease further into the MPC’s inflation-target-consistent range.
- In one line: Uncertainty hits hiring plans in May, but sentiment is likely better now than the REC suggests.
- In one line: Slowing growth and easing price pressures skews risks towards rates on hold in 2026.
- In one line: Construction PMI likely too downbeat, but output still set to fall over the coming months.
- In one line:Car registrations resilient in May but demand will slow as higher borrowing costs bite.
- In one line: Easing price expectations and falling jobs raise the chances of the MPC keeping rates on hold.
