UK Publications
Below is a list of our UK Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Payrolls were stable in March, despite the Iran war, once we adjust for likely revisions.
- Unemployment corrected for last August’s volatile rise and suggests the MPC was too pessimistic.
- Slowing pay growth was dovish, but PAYE median pay and surveys suggest the official data have undershot.
- PM Starmer is under further pressure following news that Peter Mandelson ‘failed’ security vetting.
- A leadership contest remains a distinct possibility and would likely increase the focus on debt sustainability.
- The war in Iran will likely lead to a small loosening of the fiscal stance, but costly measures will be avoided.
- February GDP exaggerates monthly growth, but stripping out noise the economy was growing solidly.
- Oil prices consistently below $100/bl mean we are close to removing our forecast for an MPC rate hike.
- A payroll fall and wage slowdown in this week’s data will keep the MPC cautious about hiking.
- In one line: Import price growth will jump in the coming months.
- In one line:About half of the February GDP gain was erratic, but that still leaves signs of improving underlying growth as Budget uncertainty eased.
- In one line: Housing market activity will grind down over the course of 2026.
- In one line: Construction sector activity to remain weak in the coming months.
- February GDP exaggerates the growth trend, because of erratic gains in a number of sectors.
- But growth was surprisingly strong even if we strip out the noise; the economy was recovering.
- We now look for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- In one line: Surging input prices will worry the MPC.
- In one line: Growth in autos registrations will ease in the coming months.
- In one line: Job market stable in March, but high inflation will weigh on employment in 2026.
- In one line: BRC sales flattered by early Easter in March, growth will slow in April.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Services inflation should hold at 4.3%, as the early-Easter airfares boost is offset by weaker hotel prices.
- Lower oil prices mean we are close to removing our call for the MPC to hike Bank Rate once this year.
- We expect CPI inflation to accelerate to 3.3% in March from 3.0% in February.
- Rocketing motor-fuel prices account for almost all of the increase in inflation.
- We now expect inflation to peak at 3.5% in September, from 3.7% previously, as oil prices have fallen back.
- Borrowing costs have jumped since our last gilt market update, as the Iran war boosts inflation fears.
- We think yields have overshot fair pricing and will fall, although more so at the short than long end.
- Higher-for-longer oil prices and rising political risk mean the curve will steepen in 2026.
HOUSE PRICES UNCHANGED IN JANUARY...
- ...BUT WAR IN IRAN WILL HIT SENTIMENT HARD IN 2026
- The temporary two-week ceasefire is already under strain, suggesting energy prices will remain high...
- ...and the data-flow since the start of the Iran war has been fractionally hawkish, in our view.
- But the MPC will wait for more clarity before jumping, so we expect a hold in April and a rate hike in June.
- We expect the final payrolls reading to show a 7K month-to-month drop in March.
- A small gain in LFS employment means the unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.2%.
- Wage inflation will drop close to the BoE Staff estimate of ‘inflation-target-consistent’ levels.
- Industrial production likely dropped in February, driven by falls in mining output and energy supply…
- ...But strong services activity will boost output growth, leaving GDP on track to rise by 0.2% in Q1.
- The fragile US-Iran ceasefire reduces the chances of a hike to Bank Rate this year, but uncertainties remain.
- Surging fuel costs and a pullback in spending led to a drop in the March PMI.
- We stick to our call for quarter-to-quarter GDP growth of 0.2% in Q1, and 0.0% in Q2.
- We expect the MPC to place more weight on rocketing input costs rather than slowing demand.
