Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
- ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
- Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.
Delta crushes August retail; exercise and look pretty at home.
Local government infrastructure finally helping out production…
…And helping stabilise FAI too
A lull in the housing market
- M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
- M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
- Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
- In one line: Uncomfortable reading.
- PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
- ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
- Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.
- Previous commodity price rises fed through in August;
- Services inflation is holding up against Delta
- Machine tool orders still positive at the margin
- Delta demand and front-loading
- China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
- Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
- FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.
- Delta demand and front-loading
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- Downside risks materialising
- Hopes for a more stimulatory successor
- Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
- But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
- More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.
- In one line: Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
- In one line: Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin
- Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
- Korean exports suggest front-loading
- Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin
- Japan’s business capex means no Q2 GDP revisions
- The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
- ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.
- We probably aren’t yet out of the Delta woods, even though the latest outbreak has been put down
- The widespread August Delta outbreak is much worse than the Q1 Hubei outbreak
- Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
- ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
- In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.
- The PBoC signalled a needed RRR cut