China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
- China’s May PMIs point to a short-term improvement in construction and manufacturing.
- Still, Q2 average industrial output growth is likely to be below 5%, raising the chances of targeted support.
- Domestic demand remains sluggish, with petrol-car sales almost halving year-over-year in May.
In one line: BoJ won't be swayed by Tokyo inflation dip
- The new BoK Governor, Mr. Shin, is signalling a rate hike, likely as soon as July, worried about financial risks.
- Korea’s resurgent semiconductor exports out weigh the growth risk from higher energy costs.
- The BoJ is likely to raise the policy rate on June 16, despite Tokyo inflation slowing in May.
In one line: BoK stays put today but new Governor Shin signals rate hikes on the way
- Chinese youth unemployment is hovering near historic highs, with AI only the latest factor weighing on hiring.
- We estimate the 10pp rise in youth unemployment since 2018 has knocked around 0.5pp off GDP growth.
- Still, China’s pursuit of AI as a critical growth engine aligns with public excitement and trust in AI.
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- - CHINA'S Q2 WEAK START ONLY PARTLY DUE TO IRAN WAR
- - BOJ LIKELY TO RESUME POLICY NORMALISATION IN JUNE
- - NEW BOK GOVERNOR LIKELY TO SET HAWKISH TONE
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
In one line: Japan’s export growth accelerates on rising legacy chip prices
In one line: Korea’s chip export boom masks the underlying K-shaped recovery
In one line: Japan's services activity stalls in May, likely hit by slowing inbound tourism
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing expansion slows in May, but precautionary front-loading continues
In one line: Japan’s Q1 GDP beats expectations, but extended Strait closure complicates BoJ tightening
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
