Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.9.21

  • Delta crushes August retail; exercise and look pretty at home.

    Local government infrastructure finally helping out production…

    …And helping stabilise FAI too

    A lull in the housing market

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 9.9.21

  • Previous commodity price rises fed through in August;
  • Services inflation is holding up against Delta
  • Machine tool orders still positive at the margin

Peter BennettChina+

8 Sept 2021 August's Punchy Trade Likely will Come at the Expense of September

  • China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
  • Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
  • FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 3.9.21

  • Downside risks materialising
  • Hopes for a more stimulatory successor

Peter BennettChina+

3 Sept 2021 The Pitfalls and Positives for China in Korea's August Trade Numbers

  • Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
  • But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
  • More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

China+ Datanote: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, August, China; Markit Manufacturing PMI, August, Korea 2021

  • In one line: Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
  • In one line: Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.9.21

  • Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
  • Korean exports suggest front-loading
  • Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin
  • Japan’s business capex means no Q2 GDP revisions

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 31.8.21

  • We probably aren’t yet out of the Delta woods, even though the latest outbreak has been put down 
  • The widespread August Delta outbreak is much worse than the Q1 Hubei outbreak 

Peter BennettChina+

31 Aug 2021 Covid Whack-a-Mole Means a Nasty August and September

  • Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
  • ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
  • In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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