China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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In one line: Retail sales weakened further; FAI data plagued by falsification issues again; Industrial output supported by exports
- China’s May retail sales dropped 0.6%, the worst since December 2022, reflecting trade-in subsidy payback.
- Fixed-asset investment still appears weak, but the data are plagued by another round of falsification issues.
- Manufacturing output is being propped up by exports; but further targeted support for demand is likely in July.
- The BoJ could raise the policy rate at today’s meeting, going by a news report and less war uncertainty.
- China’s PPI rebound is a cost-push story; reflation pace is likely to ease a tad as a peace deal is struck.
- Given positive changes in both consumer and producer prices so far, Q2’s GDP deflator might now be positive.
- China’s broad credit growth slowed further in May, indicative of sluggish credit demand.
- The fiscal deposit drawdown points to construction activity likely rebounding in May.
- The producer inflation rise is cost-push and unlikely to turn into high consumer inflation, given weak demand.
- Chinese satellite imagery concurs with April’s activity slump, with urban luminosity falling on an annual basis.
- May’s activity data are likely to stay weak, weighed down by soft domestic demand, though better than April.
- Fiscal deposit deployment may support May’s FAI, while spending faces payback effects from trade-in policies.
In one line: Shipments of integrated circuits and computers main drivers of export growth
Crude oil import volume falling
- China’s May export growth surged on the back of chip exports, largely thanks to higher prices.
- Shipments to non-traditional markets are more than offsetting falling trade with the US.
- Oil import volumes dropped again, as refiners responded to crushed margins by curbing output.
In one line: Strong trade surplus likely offsets valuation drag on China’s FX reserves
In one line: China’s RatingDog composite PMI signals faster Q2 GDP growth; services PMI lifted by holiday demand
In one line: Hong Kong PMI partially recovers on Golden Week tourism demand and construction.
In one line: Korea’s WDA export growth accelerates further on rising chip demand.
In one line: China’s RatingDog PMI reinforces NBS evidence of softer industrial production and export growth in May
In one line: Korea’s manufacturing activity hit a 5 year high on precautionary stock-building
In one line: Holiday services demand lifts China's non-manufacturing activity, while construction activity recovers slightly
In one line: China’s official PMI weighed down by May holiday disruption and payback from March’s overshoot.
In one line: Regular wage growth rose above 3% for three straight months
Consumption activity rebounded in April
- Japanese consumer spending surged in April, albeit mainly due to tax changes that spurred light truck sales.
- Solid real wage growth is partly cushioning consumers from energy worries, however.
- Governor Ueda hinted on Wednesday at a June rate hike, stressing inflation risks over growth risks.
- The outbound investment crackdown goes beyond brokers, foreshadowing greater economic control.
- Investors should be aware of the potential implications for assets from such measures in China‘s policy agenda.
- Hong Kong’s PMI partially recovered in May, thanks to Golden Week holiday demand as well as construction.
In one line: Korea inflation rise in May makes July hike likely
- China’s urban-renewal plan has unduly excited stock investors; it implies a modest boost for home demand…
- …The focus is urban investment, unlike the resettlement policy, which directly creates demand.
- New BoK Governor Shin on Monday again signalled a likely rate hike; May inflation surged on energy costs.
