China activity - industrial sector powers ahead, despite persistent property drag and retail sales losing steam
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s lopsided recovery continued in January and February, led by a galloping industrial sector...
- ...Demand is likely mainly coming from exports and fixed asset investment, with consumption still tepid.
- Further price cuts should drive car sales, while new-property developer woes continue.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
PBoC stands pat on MLF rate; draining cash from banking system first time since end 2022
China’s property market rout continues, with prices falling further in February
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Fiscal stimulus likely to drive credit demand after the holiday period
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s February credit data indicate still-flat borrowing demand, after filtering the holiday noise.
- Credit growth is likely to pick up as government-bond issuance rises to fund fiscal support.
- The equipment-upgrade and ‘cash-for-clunkers’ measures should also spur loan demand.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's action plan for equipment upgrading & consumer goods trade-ins to prop up demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- BoJ Governor Ueda gave mixed signals at his legislature appearance on Tuesday.
- Japan’s January household spending data were broadly weak, but the incoming wage data are key...
- ...The BoJ is likely to keep rates on hold next week, waiting for more data, leaving the rate hike until April.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February; Upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s upstream industries continue to see disinflationary pressure.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s consumer price inflation bounces in February, thanks to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: Investors return to China’s stock markets in February
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s CPI rebounded due to the timing of Lunar New Year and stronger demand in food and services.
- By contrast, PPI slid further as deflationary pressure on upstream industries persists.
- We expect headline CPI disinflation to resume, and China continues to export deflation to rest of world.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The Two Sessions confirm China will mainly rely on fiscal policy to support growth this year.
- We estimate the impact of additional fiscal support at 1.5% of GDP, partly offsetting the property drag.
- Regions are rolling out “ future industry” plans, anticipating the next generation of high-tech sectors.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb; the jump in the year-to-date headline was due partly to base effects.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Japanese wages pick up, in advance of the Spring union talks
China exports to emerging markets rise strongly in Jan-Feb
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- China’s export growth increased in January-to-February, partly due to the low base from last year.
- Exports to emerging markets have risen noticeably, while shipments to ASEAN were flat.
- New measures are being proposed at the NPC to prop up domestic demand and the property market.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
Premier Li confirms targeted stimulus only, as China reshapes its growth model; Tokyo inflation rises
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The February services PMIs were both respectable, albeit still below long-term averages...
- ...But weak employment indices highlight the fragility of domestic demand.
- Premier Li yesterday indicated a steady course, with no big stimulus, and outlined targeted measures.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Korean PMI reports softer expansion in manufacturing activities
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+