China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
CHINA+ OUTLOOK
- - CHINA'S Q2 WEAK START ONLY PARTLY DUE TO IRAN WAR
- - BOJ LIKELY TO RESUME POLICY NORMALISATION IN JUNE
- - NEW BOK GOVERNOR LIKELY TO SET HAWKISH TONE
- Industrial profits accelerated in April, supported by PPI reflation and better margins in the upstream sector.
- Gains were uneven, skewed towards energy and high-tech sectors, but broader momentum is improving.
- Profit growth will likely ease later this year as external demand softens and energy-price support fades.
In one line: Japan’s export growth accelerates on rising legacy chip prices
In one line: Korea’s chip export boom masks the underlying K-shaped recovery
In one line: Japan's services activity stalls in May, likely hit by slowing inbound tourism
In one line: Japan’s manufacturing expansion slows in May, but precautionary front-loading continues
In one line: Japan’s Q1 GDP beats expectations, but extended Strait closure complicates BoJ tightening
In one line: Japan's slowing inflation probably won't dissuade the BoJ from hiking rates next month
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
- President Trump’s visit to China achieved no major breakthroughs, but strategic dialogue will continue…
- …Underwhelming business deals were signed, while no decisions were made on extending the trade truce.
- Japan’s Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, but Hormuz risks complicate the BoJ’s rate-hike decision in June.
- China’s tier-one cities are enjoying a ‘mini boom’, raising hopes that the end of the property downturn is in sight.
- But national housing inventories still have almost a year to go before they reach a sustainable level.
- Cities are finding new ways to unlock genuine demand, though developer funding is still under pressure.
- China’s April data point to slowing activity, only partly explained by the global energy shock.
- Retail sales growth at 0.2% was the worst since December 2022, highlighting poor domestic demand.
- Investment is weak, though probably better than April’s figure—the worst since February 2020—suggests.
In one line: April's weak economic data due to energy shock and severe weather
- President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week marked a gradual improvement in bilateral relations...
- ...Which is likely to continue while Mr. Trump is in dealmaking mode to salvage his low popularity.
- The two countries’ different approaches to the AI transition should diffuse one key source of strain.
In one line: rise in fiscal deposits likely points to temporary building activity disruptions due to severe weather.
- The Xi-Trump summit is likely to be about optics and relationship building with no major policy breakthrough.
- China enters the talks with stronger leverage, as its trade exposure to US demand has declined sharply.
- Markets should monitor Phase Three trade talks, any Boeing deals, Iran war coordination, Taiwan arms sales.
In one line: People curbed spending in response to fuel price hikes in March
- China’s consumer inflation rose 0.2pp to 1.2% in April, on the back of fuel-price rises.
- The government will continue to soften the impact of high international energy prices on end-users.
- Industry is likely to bear the brunt of higher energy costs, amid still-sluggish domestic demand..
In one line: China trade surplus hit by soft exports and hi-tech driven imports
