China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Festive demand lift ed consumers out of deflation, but it won’t stick without stronger underlying demand.
- PPI deflation moderated, but deeper manufacturing deflation shows China is not fully out of the woods.
- The inflation trajectory hinges on the economic recovery, stimulus strength and anti-involution progress.
- China’s arithmetic fall in exports in October is mainly due to calendar effects, rather than a demand slump.
- Shipments to non-US markets dropped sharply, while exports to the US were still weak but didn’t worsen.
- Export growth is likely to slow next year, given limited capacity for the Global South to absorb rapid rises.
Full-time regular pay growth slowed a tad
Real wages extended their decline in September
Efficiency gains help profits but hurt labour demand
- China’s household saving rate has fallen, implying greater readiness for consumption spending...
- ...But not by enough to make up for the slump in residential sales since 2019; no wonder demand is soft.
- The October RatingDog services PMI reports efficiency gains; good for profits, but bad for jobs short term.
- The Xi–Trump meeting in Korea marked a watershed shift in negotiating power between the US and China.
- The RatingDog manufacturing PMI eased, similar to the NBS, on weak demand both at home and abroad.
- China is betting on powering growth by both expanding consumption and maintaining its export prowess.
Investment stimulus should lift China's manufacturing index from October's trough
Tokyo inflation bump driven by local water subsidy expiry
In one line: BoJ stands pat amid trade uncertainty and wage caution as Takaichi takes helm
In one line: Bank of Korea hold rates in October as Seoul housing surges
- China is countering its investment slump by approving an additional RMB500B in local-government bonds...
- ...And driving though the disbursal of RMB500B in policy-bank funds for investment projects.
- This should boost the official manufacturing index from its October trough.
- - CHINA DOUBLING DOWN ON MANUFACTURING-LED MODEL
- - JAPAN’S NEW PRIME MINISTER LIKELY TO MODERATE POLICY
- - BOK SHOULD LEAN TOWARDS EASING IN NOVEMBER
- President Trump met PM Takaichi in Tokyo, marking the start of a new 'golden age' for US-Japan relations.
- The BoJ held rates in October, citing the ongoing trade uncertainty and need to monitor wage trends.
- A next hike in Q1 seems more probable now, as rhetoric teeing up a December move was lacking.
- President Xi’s commentary on Tuesday confirms an industry-first view of growth...
- ...with the domestic economy serving mainly as a hedge against external uncertainties.
- China will stick to manufacturing-led growth, with only modest support for domestic demand and property.
- China and the US held talks to settle a trade agreement framework before Presidents Xi and Trump meet.
- China’s industrial profits recovery broadened in September, partly due to base effects…
- …Equipment manufacturing drove profit gains; we remain cautiously optimistic on anti-involution policies.
- Japan’s headline inflation ticked up in September, owing to higher energy inflation.
- The new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, said on Friday that addressing inflation was her top priority.
- The October flash PMIs point to a broad weakening in activity, both manufacturing and services.
In one line: BoJ won’t be shocked by modest rise in inflation; likely to hold rates next week waiting for clarity on the new government’s fiscal easing
- The BoK held the policy rate yesterday, while signalling its readiness for a rate cut next month...
- ...But only if the KRW stabilises, in turn resting on US-Korea talks, and if the Seoul property market cools.
- China’s Fourth Plenum signalled continued reliance on the manufacturing-export growth model.
- Japan’s new PM Takaichi will put together a stimulus package to alleviate households’ cost-of-living crisis.
- September exports trended higher on improving intra-regional demand, driven by chip and car shipments.
- The BoJ will likely delay its rate hike to December now that Ms. Takaichi has been appointed as the new PM.
- China’s quarterly GDP grew a touch faster in Q3, but the headline masks weakness in domestic demand.
- The divergence holds between stronger exports and production, and weaker retail sales and investment.
- China’s Q4 growth hinges on successfully reining in deflation and unclogging local financing bottlenecks.
- China’s next Five-Year Plan will focus on long-term strategies in high-tech, energy, and national security…
- …As well as adherence to dual circulation, and maybe an industrial plan to succeed ‘Made in China 2025’.
- China’s consumers and producers are still mired in deflation despite recent improvements.
