Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

11 June 2021 Core Inflation has Further to Rise, the Fed Needs Labor Supply to Rebound

Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, May 2021; Weekly Jobless Claims 6 10 2021

In one line: The reopening spike continues; the Fed better be right about "bottlenecks".

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Jun 2021 16:11U.S.

10 June 2021 Don't Worry if Claims Print Higher Today, the Trend is Falling

We have no doubt that the trend in initial jobless claims will continue to fall over the summer, probably returning to cyclically normal levels in the mid-200K range or even lower.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, May 2021

In one line: Disappointing headline hit by tax fears; hides astonishingly strong labor market numbers.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 12:25U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: ISM Services Survey, May 2021

In one line: Strong demand, tight supply, prices rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 16:03U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, May 2021

In one line: Overstating the official numbers again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 16:03U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

US Datanote: Chicago PMI, May 2021

In one line: Remarkable, but probably not indicative of the national picture.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 16:19U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

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