US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The increase in asset prices over the past year implies a one percentage point boost to consumption...
- ..A bit less than rules of thumb imply, due to low confidence, already-low saving and high borrowing costs.
- Real incomes probably will rise just 4% year-over-year in Q4, limiting spending growth to 1%%.
- GDPNow’s forecast for 4.3% growth in Q2 is based on too little data to take it seriously.
- We look for growth of 1½%, given the weak underlying trend in consumption and non-tech capex.
- The FOMC is more worried about inflation expectations, but they have no bite in a weak labor market.
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
No end in sight for the housing slump.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.
Margins are unlikely to remain this high for long.
Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.
- Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
- Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
- Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.
