US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
- ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
- Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.
Samuel TombsUS
Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- QCEW data up to Q4 2024 imply payrolls have been overestimated substantially; Q1 data will be weak too...
- ...But QCEW data are revised too; the preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision is usually too downbeat.
- The birth-death model has been too generous again; unauthorized workers also will be removed from the data.
Samuel TombsUS
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a mere 75K rise in payrolls, despite the rebound in stock prices and decline in tariff uncertainty.
- Reliable surveys of hiring intentions have remained weak; consumers report worsening job availability.
- A rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August is likely too, given the latest continuing claims data.
Samuel TombsUS
- Tariff revenues crept up by just $2B to $32B in August, but likely will reach $45B soon.
- Tariffs have risen this month; imports from high tariff nations will rebound; the de minimis exemption will end.
- We doubt the jump in underlying durable goods orders in July is a sign of things to come.
Samuel TombsUS
Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- A weak month at Boeing likely hit headline orders, but orders ex-transportation probably were soft too.
- Tariff-related uncertainty still seems to be weighing heavily on companies’ capex plans.
- A big inventory overhang points to a further decline in new residential construction ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
- High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
- …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.
Samuel TombsUS
The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Labor market slack is gradually building.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024.
- That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
- We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Home sales have remained very weak despite recoveries in both supply and mortgage applications.
- That suggests to us that asking prices are too high, and need to come down for the market to clear.
- Home prices have already fallen by about 1% since March and we think a further grind lower lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes sharp cuts to federal health spending, mostly affecting Medicaid.
- That will probably be a minor long-term headwind for the sector in the coming years.
- But the hit will take time to arrive, and the long-term tailwind from an ageing population looks far bigger.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2
- UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The outlook for homebuilding remains grim.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Foreigners are not “paying” for President Trump’s tariffs: pre-tariff import prices are holding steady…
- …That leaves US consumers and businesses shouldering nearly all of the additional costs.
- Homebase data point to a rebound in private payrolls, but likely give a misleading signal.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
