US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Zillow’s measure of new rents increased in April by less than 0.10%, for the fourth straight month.
- The recent further rise in the vacancy rate and pickup in multi-family starts implies the glut will continue.
- Rent’s contribution to core CPI inflation will be 0.3pp lower by year-end, overwhelming the energy hit.
A mediocre end to Q1, but the surveys look promising.
Early signs of a manufacturing margins squeeze.
- Households often borrow more when gas prices surge, and banks have become more willing to lend...
- ...But high interest rates, elevated delinquencies and low confidence suggest people will be cautious.
- Surveys suggest a better times ahead for manufacturers, but big headwinds remain.
Fallout from the war adding to the pressures on homebuilders.
Retailers’ healthy margins suggest tariff pass-though now complete.
Small business capex plans drop to a post-GFC low.
- A huge leap in nominal sales of gasoline likely meant a strong March headline retail sales print.
- Core sales probably also were supported by big tax refunds and unseasonably warm weather.
- We still expect the hit to real incomes from higher gas prices to mean a weak Q2 for consumers.
Sales going nowhere fast.
- The 0.1% rise in the March core PPI masked heat in components which feed into the core PCE deflator...
- ...But inflation still look set to fall in H2 as the uplift from tariffs fades, offsetting the energy price boost.
- The fall in the capex intentions index of the NFIB survey to a post-GFC low is most likely noise.
- The data available so far point to GDP growth a bit below 2% in the first quarter.
- Consumption was soft and net trade was a big drag, but government spending rebounded.
- Residual seasonality probably explains only a fraction of the slow underlying momentum last quarter.
Further reason to expect a consumer slowdown.
Soft core increase shows domestically-generated inflation in check.
- A record jump in gas prices hugely boosted the CPI in March; expect a further 0.2pp hit in April.
- The core CPI likely will be lifted in April by a rebound in used auto prices and a catch-up increase in rents...
- ...But the fading tariff boost and slowing rent rises will drag down inflation in H2, despite higher oil prices.
Consumption already weak before the energy shock.
- February data imply consumers’ spending likely rose by only about 1% in Q1...
- ...The looming real income squeeze and low confidence point to broadly flat spending in Q2.
- Core PCE inflation will be lower by year-end, despite higher energy prices, as the tariff uplift fades.
Underlying capex still looks relatively weak.
- Real consumption likely rose 0.3% in February; unofficial data point to robust non-gas spending in March...
- ...But the lift to incomes from tax refunds will be over soon; lower stock prices will add to the headwinds.
- The February core PCE deflator likely rose 0.4%, due to residual seasonality and some volatile components.
Probably providing a false read on services inflation.
- The biggest one-month jump in gas prices since at least 1957 likely boosted the headline CPI by 0.7pp.
- Airline fares probably jumped too, while used vehicle prices are overdue a rebound…
- …But prices for other services likely rose only modestly, justifying the FOMC’s wait-and-see stance.
