US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
No end in sight for the housing slump.
- Current fiscal plans imply low-income households will
be squeezed by policy in 2027.
- The President’s budget proposal entails more pain for
households, to part-fund higher military spending.
- Congress will temper proposed cuts to nondefense
spending, but households likely still will be worse-off.
Rising mortgage rates and low confidence are stifling demand.
- AI-driven layoffs still look limited, but productivity gains seem to be limiting hiring in a few sectors.
- This drag on labor demand, however, looks relatively small compared to the broader AI economic boost.
- We still think AI is more likely to shift the composition of labor demand than depress it significantly.
Supply-chain risks prompting a rush of activity and greater price pressures.
Margins are unlikely to remain this high for long.
Strength in sales likely to unwind as tax refunds taper off.
- Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
- Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
- Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.
- Core retail sales were very strong again in April; sales in February and March were revised up too.
- But spending looks set to falter ahead, as the lift from tax refunds fades, and gas prices stay elevated.
- We now look for a 1% expansion in consumers’ spending in Q2, but a mere 0.5% gain in Q3.
Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.
- Half of the rise in the April core PPI was due to a jump in gross margins; they won’t stay so high for long.
- A further third of the gain was driven by a step jump in transportation prices; unlikely to be repeated..
- Data center investment still is providing only a small lift to overall construction activity and employment.
Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.
- April’s 0.38% rise in the core CPI was driven by one-time jumps in rents, airline fares and tax services.
- Surveys point to bigger rises in core goods prices, but apparel prices will fall from weather-boosted levels.
- Measures of new rents have stalled; we look for 0.20% rises in the core CPI over the next three months.
- The hit to April sales from high gas prices and cooler weather likely was offset by strong tax refunds.
- We look for a 0.4% increase in headline sales, and a further 0.2% uptick in the retail control measure.
- Spending likely will slow sharply from May, however, as gas prices stay high and refunds taper off.
Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.
The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.
A mixed bag; hiring indicators suggest a long wait for a substantial improvement.
Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.
- Payrolls have been flattered by the weather and a temporary burst of activity in the goods sector.
- Most indicators of hiring intentions and expected wage growth have weakened in recent months.
- The FOMC will be more worried about the labor market than inflation by the end of this year.
