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Pantheon Macroeconomics Ltd Compliance Statement
Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus.Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios.Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices.Recent key calls include:2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May.2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.
Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.
In one line: Car sales still going downhill.
We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.
In one line: Permits are the key number, and they are headed back up.
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic research to financial market professionals around the world
Short, punchy analysis of major economic data, emailed within a few minutes of their release
Other services from Pantheon.
Andres Abadia authors our Latin American service. Andres is a native of Colombia and has many years' experience covering the global economy, with a particular focus on Latin America. In 2017, he won the Thomson Reuters Starmine Top Forecaster Award for Latam FX.Andres's research covers Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela, focusing on economic, political and financial developments. The countries of Latin America differ substantially in terms of structure, business cycle and politics, and Andres' researchhighlights the impact of these differences on currencies, interest rates and equity markets. He believes that most LatAm economies are heavily influenced by cyclical forces in the U.S. and China, as well as domestic policy shocks and local politics. He keeps a close eye on both external and domestic developments to forecast their effects on LatAm economies, monetary policy, and financial markets.Before starting to work at Pantheon Macroeconomics in 2013, Dr. Abadia was the Head of Research for Arcalia/Bancaja (now Bankia) in Madrid, and formerly Chief Economist for the same institution. Previously, he worked at Ahorro Coporacion Financiera, as an Economist.Andres earned a PhD in Applied Economics, and a Masters Degree in Economics and International Business Administration from Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, and a BSc in Economics from the Universidad Externado de Colombia.
Welcome to Pantheon Macroeconomics, leading provider of Independent Macroeconomic Research
Daily economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia
Melanie joined Pantheon in 2021 with nearly a decade's experience in independent economic research. She focuses on the Eurozone, with particular emphasis on Italy and Spain, and also covers Switzerland and SNB policy.
Our Independent Economic Research is presented in a number of different formats
Gabriella joined Pantheon in 2021 weth several years' experience in independent macro research. Prior to joining Pantheon, she was a Global Economist at Capital Economics, with a particular focus on advanced economies; she also worked on a U.K. economy and housing market.
CFA Sweden hosting Pantheon Macroeconomics
Claus Vistesen has several years' experience in the independent macro research space, as a freelancer, consultant and, latterly, as Head of Research of Variant Perception, Inc. He holds Master's degrees in economics and finance from the Copenhagen Business School and the University of Hull.
Weekly economic research from the U.S., Eurozone, Latin America, U.K. and Asia
Monthly publication telling the economic story of each region in roughly 40 charts
Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.
Moorthy joined Pantheon in 2022 with several years' experience in independent macro research. He focuses on Emerging and North-East Asia.Prior to joining Pantheon, Moorthy worked at Oxford Economics in the Macro-forecasting team, where he covered economics in South and South-East Asia. Moorthy holds undergraduate degrees in Economics from the National University of Singapore and the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill) and a master's degree from the LSE.
40 illuminating charts, covering all aspects of the market, followed by a detailed forecast page.
Latin America Document Vault
Global Document Vault
China+ Document Vault
U.K. Document Vault
U.S. Document Vault
Eurozone Document Vault
Kelvin Lam has spent a decade and a half working in financial institutions in London and Hong Kong, focusing on macroeconomic
Duncan produces the China+ Service for Pantheon, covering China, Jana and Korea. He was previously Chief Strategist at Everbright Securities International, with a focus on China economic policy research. Before that he worked as an economist at Shui On Land, a property developer headquartered in Shanghai. The followed positions at the Economist Group, Business Monitor International and the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Emerging Asia Document Vault
Careers at Pantheon Macroeconomics
Kieran brings several years' experience in independent economic research to Pantheon, where he now works with Ian Shepherdson to deepen our U.S. coverage.
April GDP Likely Fared Worse than the Business Surveys Suggest
One Month's CPI Data Won't Dispel the MPC's Anxiety About Ingrained Inflation
Expectations index still points to faster real consumption growth in H2, but we are not convinced.
July Retail Sales likely were Soft, but Prime Day Effect is a Wildcard
A plunge in manufacturing employment would not be enough to move the needle on headline payrolls.
Renewed dip in capital spending intentions is disappointing but not definitive.
The ECB Will Hike at Least Twice More
Hawkish hold, but everything in the SEP is forecast, not promise
Philippines' September CPI the Death Knell for Potential Q4 Cuts
U.S. Eases Sanctions on Venezuela, but Outlook Still Grim
Forecast Review: Lower Inflation in 2024 to Facilitate No Recession and Rate Cuts
China's exports have bottomed out but are set for a weak recovery
More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
Things have changed since September 20
Vietnam GDP, Vietnam Retail Sales, Vietnam Trade, Vietnam CPI
Indonesian Trade Vanished in Q2, Offset by Still-Solid Local Demand
Indonesia's Honeymoon Trade Surplus is Coming to an End
Wage Pressures Likely Faded Further in Q3, Supporting Fed Doves
India's PMIs Undeniably Rolling Over, GDP Growth to Follow Soon
Fiscal Consolidation in Malaysia's 2024 Budget Likely Too Optimistic
Core orders nudging up; jobless claims likely will rise further through year-end.
The PBoC keeps the MLF rate on hold for now; a cut is likely by year-end
Industrial profits decline eases on a year to date basis
EZ on Track for a Q3 Fall; All is Not as It Seems in the PMIs
Proof that the BSP's out-of-cycle rate hike was rashThe Philippines' smallest deficit in almost a year isn't exactly good news
Mexico's Industrial Sector Starts H2 on a Relatively Solid Footing
China's Export Trend Remains Weak, Despite the Headline Moderation
Italy in Recession for the Rest of 2023? Swiss Inflation Holds Steady
Labor Market Inflation Risk is Receding Faster than the Fed Thinks
Will the August HICP Data Kill Off the September Hike?
Net Exports Likely to be a Drag on EZ GDP Growth in H2
If the Fed's Forecasts are Wrong, Which Direction is More Likely?
India's Tomato Troubles Support Those of Us in Team Transitory
China's Industrial Profits are Helped by Softer Commodity Prices
July's PMI Data Indicate that the MPC's Job Is Nearly Done
Malaysia's Export Growth Outlook Remains on Fragile Foundations
Philly Fed prices spike is wild; jobless claims likely distorted by seasonal problems
The Upturn is Losing Momentum
Excess Capacity is Dragging Down China's Producer Prices
Further Gains as Global Risk Sentiment Remains Positive
The selling prices index signals lower core services inflation ex-rents.
Producer prices rise m/m, though demand is still soft
Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here, now that gas prices are falling.
Geopolitical risk now the main driver
People don't like higher gas prices; the trend in new home sales is flattening.
Private transport prices slow disinflation in Singapore
Rise in selling price index is msotly due to higher commodity prices; the downward trend remains intact.
Increase in prices index is nothing to worry about; downshift in core goods inflation has much further to run.
China New Home Prices Stage Largest Decline Since End 2022
An unsurprising mean-reversion in ASEAN's PMIIndia's services PMI is consolidating above 60Record high COE prices drag on vehicle sales in Singapore, causing a headline dipIndonesian inflation returns to the upper bound of BI's target range
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