Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

5 June 2025 US Monitor The downward trend in construction spending has further to run

  • Construction spending has dropped significantly in recent months, a trend we expect to continue…
  • …Falling spending points to small but sustained declines in construction payrolls ahead.
  • Auto sales plunged by 9.4% in May, signalling the broader wave of pre-tariff purchases is now fading.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

4 June 2025 US Monitor JOLTS data offer false reassurance on labor demand

  • The JOLTS participation and response rates are very low; downward revisions have been common lately.
  • Other indicators point to fading demand for new hires; at the same time layoffs are starting to rise.
  • Several “soft” data series have reversed their April plunges, providing some reassurance about activity.

Samuel TombsUS

3 June 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in May, ahead of a bigger deceleration

  • We look for a 125K rise in May payrolls; the surge in distribution sector jobs likely has petered out...
  • ...While the most reliable survey indicators show that rising uncertainty has weighed on hiring.
  • Continuing claims data point to another rise in unemployment, increasing pressure on the FOMC to ease.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

2 June 2025 US Monitor Weaker consumers' spending and higher core inflation lie ahead

  • Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
  • ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
  • Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.

Samuel TombsUS

30 May 2025 US Monitor April PCE release comes too early to capture much of the tariff shock

  • We look for a 0.1% uptick in real consumers’ spending in April, and a 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator.
  • Q1 GDP growth probably still is being understated, but the economy was losing momentum nonetheless.
  • The court ruling against the Trump tariffs looks unlikely to derail the administration’s trade agenda.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

29 May 2025 US Monitor Services sector set for weaker growth in activity, but limited inflation

  • The regional Fed surveys suggest services sector growth in slowing rather than collapsing...
  • ...But employment growth in many services industries probably will be much weaker in Q3.  
  • Limited services inflation and wage growth will allow the Fed to respond with easier policy, eventually.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May

Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

28 May 2025 US Monitor Business equipment investment set to fall sharply over the rest of 2025

  • Core capital goods orders fell by almost 2% in real terms in April, the steepest drop in almost four years. 
  • Surveys of capex intentions still point to further weakness in equipment investment ahead.
  • The FOMC minutes will underline the Fed’s plans to wait for more clarity on the impact of tariffs. 

Samuel TombsUS

27 May 2025 US Monitor Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July's FOMC meeting

  • Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
  • ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
  • Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April

 Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 17

 Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.

Samuel TombsUS

May 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

  • …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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