US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- The median FOMC member still expects to ease policy by 50bp this year, but slowdown fears have grown.
- Most members expect tariff inflation to be transitory; attention will soon switch to rising unemployment.
- Homebase data imply private payroll growth slowed to 50K in March, but it likely overstates the downshift.
Samuel TombsUS
- The median FOMC forecast likely will envisage easing by 50bp this year, the same as in December.
- The Chair will retain all options, leaving investors unsure if trade war escalation would mean lower rates.
- We continue to expect the FOMC ultimately to ease by 75bp this year, with the first move in June.
Samuel TombsUS
- We are tracking consumption growth of about 1½% in Q1, after February’s retail sales data...
- ...Most real-time indicators look solid, despite lower confidence, so March spending likely will rise too.
- Look today for a 0.6% rise in February manufacturing output, but surveys point to trouble ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- The economy has never dodged recession in the last 45 years with unemployment expectations so high…
- …But WARN data, Indeed job postings and hiring intentions have deteriorated less dramatically.
- Consumers think tariffs will boost inflation by about 2pp; the reality won’t be that bad.
Samuel TombsUS
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% in February, lifting the inflation rate to 2.8%, from 2.6%.
- Markets expect 75bp of FOMC easing in 2025, but most members will keep projecting 50bp next week.
- Forward-looking components of the PPI, however, suggest services inflation will slow further this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- A plunge in airline fares tempered the rise in the core CPI, but the core PCE deflator likely rose by 0.3%.
- Services disinflation will resume; the contribution of rent to core inflation will be 0.5pp lower by end-year...
- ...That will offset the uplift from 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, keeping core CPI inflation stable at 3%.
Samuel TombsUS
- January Job postings still above summer 2024 levels; no sudden changes in federal postings…
- …But Indeed new postings are down 7% since the inauguration, and layoff indicators have jumped.
- Small businesses plan to continue squeezing wage rises this year; services inflation will fall further.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.3% increase in the February core CPI, but the risks are skewed towards a 0.2% print.
- Used vehicle prices likely fell sharply; it’s too soon to see a big uplift to goods prices from tariffs on China.
- Weakening demand for air travel and hotels likely restrained the increase in overall services prices.
Samuel TombsUS
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
- …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
- Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
- February’s rise in Homebase education jobs was small only because January’s fall was relatively mild.
- The broad-based jump in Challenger job cuts shows clear cracks are forming in the labor market.
- Trade data likely miscount a surge in gold imports; revisions will result in a smaller net trade hit to GDP.
Samuel TombsUS
- The near-3% annualized decline in GDP forecast by the Atlanta Fed’s model is far too downbeat.
- Consumption will recover in February and GDPNow likely is misinterpreting the surge in gold imports.
- The ADP and ISM services employment indicators are both unreliable guides to payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 175K increase in February payrolls, despite the slightly weaker steer from surveys.
- The weather hit on January jobs likely unwound, and it’s too soon to see federal layoffs in the data.
- Homebase data look alarming, but they are too skewed towards hospitality to be a useful barometer.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico would boost the headline PCE deflator by 0.5%.
- Our calculation assumes trade flows shift and manufacturers and retailers absorb some of the costs.
- We see little risk of workers obtaining bigger wage rises in response; services disinflation will continue.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
