Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US CPI, March

Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Samuel TombsUS

11 April 2025 US Monitor Services inflation likely to keep falling, enabling the FOMC to ease

  • The subdued March core CPI reading will be followed by much bigger increases in the coming months...
  • ...But ongoing weakness in underlying services inflation should lessen the trade-off faced by the Fed. 
  • March PPI data are worth watching for signs retailers are absorbing some early tariff costs in their margins.

Samuel TombsUS

10 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows but deepens

  • Uncertainty remains high even after Mr. Trump’s blink; for now, the tariffs imply a 1% uplift to consumer prices.
  • …That’s a slightly smaller boost than we previously factored in, but the outlook for exports has darkened.
  • China’s 84% tariffs will inflict a 0.3% blow to US GDP; we still expect the economy to slow to a near-standstill.

Samuel TombsUS

9 April 2025 US Monitor Using tariff revenue to cut taxes would offset little of the wider damage

  • Tariff-funded tax cuts would simply give with one hand while taking more with the other.
  • The net federal revenue available is likely to be just $200B, after accounting for the weaker economy.
  • We look for a below-consensus 0.2% rise in the March core CPI; it’s too soon to see impact of China tariffs

Samuel TombsUS

8 April 2025 US Monitor Rules of thumb to navigate through the tariff crisis

  • Recent falls in oil prices and shipping costs will offset about one quarter of the tariff boost to inflation.
  • The $10 fall in WTI oil prices, however, also points to a 0.1% hit to GDP via lower business investment.
  • The fall in financial wealth is consistent with households’ spending undershooting its trend by 0.7%.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Employment, March

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsUS

7 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth will slow, but it's too strong for the Fed to ease in May

  • The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
  • Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
  • The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.

Samuel TombsUS

4 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff shock

  • The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
  • We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
  • The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

Samuel TombsUS

3 April 2025 US Monitor Break-even payroll growth likely has stepped down, but only modestly

  • Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
  • ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
  • A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead. 

Samuel TombsUS

1 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in March, but to a better-than-recession pace

  • Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
  • Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
  • Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February

Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

31 March 2025 US Monitor Tariffs will be too small to drive a sustained downturn in consumption

  • GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
  • Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
  • Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, February

 Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February

 Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,