US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
Samuel TombsUS
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
Samuel TombsUS
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
Samuel TombsUS
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Samuel TombsUS
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
- Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
- A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.
Samuel TombsUS
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
Samuel TombsUS
The underlying trend in residential construction is flat and likely to turn lower.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Hard to trust given the rock-bottom response rate.
Samuel TombsUS
Low simply because auto plant shutdowns have been less prevalent than usual.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales growth less impressive in real terms; consumer slowdown continues.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The jump in June education jobs is more likely to be revised away than to unwind over coming months.
- June education jobs were revised down in 2022, 2023 and 2024; no other data corroborate the 2025 jump.
- A structural break following a mid-2024 methodology change makes the Michigan survey hard to believe.
Samuel TombsUS
