- Markets have broken decisively from the Fed; inves- tors no longer believe in rate hike optionality.
- Core CPI inflation ex-rents is now just 2.0% and fall- ing, and the pace of rent increases will slow sharply.
- We’re sticking to our call for the first easing in March, but we doubt Chair Powell will quickly declare victory.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- October’s core CPI probably rose 0.4%, but the risks are biased to the downside.
- Hotel room rates, health insurance and new vehicle prices all seem likely to have pushed up the core.
- Our medium-term optimism remains, but disinflation won’t proceed in a neat straight line every month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The jump in inflation expectations probably is temporary, but the Fed won't like it.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- House Republicans are yet to coalesce around a funding plan that could pass the Senate…
- …That might change, but right now a government shutdown starting at midnight Friday looks likely.
- The spike in inflation expectations will reverse, but Fed policymakers will be unhappy in the meantime.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Nudging back up, but no sustained increase visible on the near horizon
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
- Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
- Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
- The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
- In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
- Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
- ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
- …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
- Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- The gradual downshift in job growth continues, but labor demand is not collapsing.
- If unemployment hits 4%, the Fed will struggle to jus- tify sticking to the line that it could hike again.
- Wage growth is slowing, with a further softening in the pipeline; further policy tightening is unnecessary.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Signalling softer spending on services after the summer blowout.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
The rebalancing continues; chance of a Dec hike dips further
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase suggests modest downside risk to Octo- ber payrolls, but margins of error are wide.
- Unemployment is creeping higher as labor force growth surges, but the monthly data are wild cards.
- The ISM services index is holding up, but is trending sideways, and medium-term risk is to the downside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Unit labor costs consistent with the inflation target, if sustained
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Higher rates are putting the brakes on the recovery in manufacturing.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- The Fed preserves optionality, but two rounds of softer jobs and CPI data should keep them on hold.
- Unit labor costs growth is slowing sharply, signalling low inflation once the Covid echoes fade.
- Unexpectedly weak ISM manufacturing signals a renewed slowdown and an inventory correction.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
- ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
- Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
