US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Disinflation still progressing; core PCE deflator likely up just 0.2%.
Samuel TombsUS
Massive rise in airline fares leaves core PCE deflator set to rise by 0.3%.
Samuel TombsUS
Politics still making the NFIB harder to read.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- PPI data combined with our CPI forecast suggest core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.0% in December...
- ...But the PPI report also contained some reassuring signals for the near-term inflation outlook.
- Further improvement in the NFIB in December likely driven by politics rather than by fundamentals.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 0.5% increase in the December headline CPI, and a fifth straight 0.3% rise in the core.
- Strong holiday demand boosted prices for gasoline, air transportation and accommodation.
- Rent and auto insurance prices likely rebounded after below-trend increases in November.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff worries likely pushing up inflation expectations.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- December payroll growth likely will be revised to a slower pace, given the usual skew in late responses.
- The trend is revealed only from data spanning about six months; payroll growth was lower in H2 than H1.
- Homebase data make payroll forecasts less accurate; they are a poor guide even to hospitality payrolls.
Samuel TombsUS
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Option pricing indicates markets will move sharply today if payrolls deviate much from the consensus...
- ...But payrolls have become noisier as the response rate has declined; trends take six months to emerge.
- Auto sales have been lifted by storms, tariff talk and a dip in auto loan rates; expect sales to falter mid-year.
Samuel TombsUS
Don't panic about the prices index just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Falling quits point to a further slowdown in wage growth ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
- Profits are very sensitive to GDP growth, and reliably lead employment growth at turning points.
- Much weaker growth in profits would suggest trouble ahead for the broader economy.
- Seasonals are pushing down claims; they also fell in the first week of prior years with identical calendars.
Samuel TombsUS
- JOLTS job postings are noisy and usually revised down; Indeed’s data are a better guide to the trend.
- Muted overall net hiring, and net job losses among very small firms, suggest Fed policy is still too tight.
- Fade the jump in the ISM services prices index; it is far more volatile than underlying services inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a lethargic 150K in December payrolls, with private jobs increasing by just 120K...
- ...NFIB hiring intentions and Indeed job postings—the only survey indicators worth tracking—are weak.
- Mild weather likely lifted December construction payrolls, but the boost won’t last.
Samuel TombsUS
Early signs of improvement, but still depressed.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Manufacturing payrolls have been falling for several months, and construction looks vulnerable too.
- Job losses in these sectors have often signaled trouble for the broader labor market and economy.
- We think the economy is in a more fragile position than markets and the commentariat appreciate.
Samuel TombsUS
- The end of year declines in both initial and continuing claims are due to seasonal adjustment problems.
- The recent pick-up in WARN layoff filings suggests initial claims will rise over the coming months.
- Unemployment likely rose again last month, despite lower claims, driven by rising long-term joblessness.
Samuel TombsUS
- We have revised down our forecast for Q4 GDP growth to 2%, from 2.5% previously.
- Recent data point to a huge slump in investment in aircraft, and a significant drag from net foreign trade.
- Attempts to get ahead of threatened tariffs probably will distort the GDP data in the early part of 2025.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The post-election pick-up in sentiment has faded quickly.
Samuel TombsUS
