Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, September

Indicators with a better track record paint a much weaker picture.

Samuel TombsUS

3 October 2024 US Monitor Claims likely edged up last week; Helene will drive a bigger rise soon

  • We look for a small rise in initial claims to about 225K, from 218K, driven by rolling furloughs at Boeing.
  • Storm Helene likely will lift claims to about 250K soon; port-related disruption may add to the pick up.
  • The end of the student loan payment “on-ramp” will only hit annual consumption by 0.15% at most. 

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, September

Still depressed; core goods prices likely to keep falling.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

2 October 2024 US Monitor Strikes at the ports will depress GDP only if they last beyond this week

  • Supply chains have enough flex for a one-week ports strike to have only a negligible impact on GDP...
  • ...But a more protracted walkout would weigh greatly on the manufacturing and retail sectors.
  • Manufacturing and residential construction payrolls both look likely to decline in the coming months.

Samuel TombsUS

1 October 2024 US Monitor Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed

  • Only NFIB, Conference Board and Indeed data predict jobs growth better than a 
    six-month average.
  • Collectively, these indicators point to a 115K rise in September private payrolls and a 135K in total NFP.
  • The unemployment rate likely edged up; the recent fall in continuing claims is not indicative of the trend.

Samuel TombsUS

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