Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: Consumer Prices, May

Used cars hit again, but for the last time; decent chance of a 0.2% July core

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: NFIB Survey, May

Still signalling recession, despite stock price bounce.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

13 June 2023 US Monitor Another 0.4% Core CPI is Likely for May, but Net Risk is to the Downside

  • The core CPI likely rose 0.4% in May, but used autos, airline fares and lodging costs are wild, again.
  • The net risk to consensus likely is to the downside, and pipeline pressure continues to fade.
  • Look behind the NFIB headline index today for the real story; small businesses are suffering.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 June 2023 US Monitor Dots Up, but Rates Paused; No Summer Certainty for Markets

  • The Fed likely will leave rates on hold this week, but the median dot will rise, signalling one more hike...
  • ...Whether that hike happens will depend on the incoming inflation and labor market data.
  • A soft economy is visible everywhere except in the payroll and inflation data, but that will change.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 June 2023 US Monitor Excess Savings Boost to Consumer Spending Likely is Nearing an End

  • People are still running down excess savings accumulated during Covid, boosting spending…
  • …But this boost will soon fade; only a third of excess savings remain, and they are unevenly distributed.
  • The spike in jobless claims is not necessarily a signal of labor market weakening; more data are needed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Weekly Jobless Claims 0527

Huge jump in claims is in line with other indicators, but it's too soon to call a decisive break to the upside.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

8 June 2023 US Monitor Layoff Announcements have Flattened, but Likely will Rise Again

  • Both the Challenger layoff announcement data and NFIB hiring intentions signal higher jobless claims.
  • Tighter credit conditions and soaring interest rates mean the inventory correction has some way to run.
  • The inventory drag on Q2 GDP growth likely will be about three-quarters of a percentage point.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 June 2023 US Monitor Slowing Consumer Credit Growth is More than Just a Gas Price Effect

  • Lower gas prices and slowing real consumption growth are depressing consumer credit growth.
  • The sudden widening of the trade deficit in April likely was mostly in the oil component; it will persist...
  • ...So net foreign trade is set to be a substantial drag on Q2 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, May

Softening, pointing to slower growth in payrolls and wages.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

6 June 2023 US Monitor The Drop in Home Sales is Over; the Consequences are Yet to Play Out

  • Home sales and housing starts are unlikely to fall much further this year, after cratering in 2022...
  • ...But the drop in home prices is still in its infancy; we expect a 15% peak-to-trough decline.
  • The ISM surveys show that services are still outperforming manufacturing, but the gap is narrowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 June 2023 US Monitor Payrolls are Key Data for the Fed, but the Latest Data are... Strange

  • If recent payroll numbers persist, the likely June pause won’t last; they’ll hike again later...
  • ...But payrolls are being lifted by exceptionally generous seasonals and the birth/death model...
  • ..So the risk of a sudden downshift and/or hefty downward revisions is heavy

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Employment, May

Wild, but a Fed pause is still a good bet, just

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

2 June 2023 US Monitor May May Payroll Risk is to the Downside, but Forecast Confidence is Low

  • Downside risk for May payrolls, but these data are wild and forecast margins of error are huge.
  • Expect a benign hourly wage print; the April spike likely was noise rather than signal.
  • The ISM survey shows manufacturing firmly in recession, and signals a deep inventory correction.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ADP Employment, May

A second straight upside surprise, but no clear signal for payrolls

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

1 June 2023 US Monitor ADP Set to Report Slower Job Gains, but NFIB Hiring Plans Matter More

  • We expect a clear slowing in ADP employment in May, but we care more about NFIB hiring intentions.
  • Weak regional surveys and soft China PMIs point to a dip in ISM manufacturing; the sector is in recession.
  • Auto sales likely dipped in May; the trend appears to be peaking as rates rocket and credit tightens.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence