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Used cars hit again, but for the last time; decent chance of a 0.2% July core
Still signalling recession, despite stock price bounce.
- The core CPI likely rose 0.4% in May, but used autos, airline fares and lodging costs are wild, again.
- The net risk to consensus likely is to the downside, and pipeline pressure continues to fade.
- Look behind the NFIB headline index today for the real story; small businesses are suffering.
- The Fed likely will leave rates on hold this week, but the median dot will rise, signalling one more hike...
- ...Whether that hike happens will depend on the incoming inflation and labor market data.
- A soft economy is visible everywhere except in the payroll and inflation data, but that will change.
- People are still running down excess savings accumulated during Covid, boosting spending…
- …But this boost will soon fade; only a third of excess savings remain, and they are unevenly distributed.
- The spike in jobless claims is not necessarily a signal of labor market weakening; more data are needed.
Huge jump in claims is in line with other indicators, but it's too soon to call a decisive break to the upside.
- Both the Challenger layoff announcement data and NFIB hiring intentions signal higher jobless claims.
- Tighter credit conditions and soaring interest rates mean the inventory correction has some way to run.
- The inventory drag on Q2 GDP growth likely will be about three-quarters of a percentage point.
- Lower gas prices and slowing real consumption growth are depressing consumer credit growth.
- The sudden widening of the trade deficit in April likely was mostly in the oil component; it will persist...
- ...So net foreign trade is set to be a substantial drag on Q2 GDP growth.
Softening, pointing to slower growth in payrolls and wages.
- Home sales and housing starts are unlikely to fall much further this year, after cratering in 2022...
- ...But the drop in home prices is still in its infancy; we expect a 15% peak-to-trough decline.
- The ISM surveys show that services are still outperforming manufacturing, but the gap is narrowing.
- If recent payroll numbers persist, the likely June pause won’t last; they’ll hike again later...
- ...But payrolls are being lifted by exceptionally generous seasonals and the birth/death model...
- ..So the risk of a sudden downshift and/or hefty downward revisions is heavy
Wild, but a Fed pause is still a good bet, just
Still bouncing along the bottom.
- Downside risk for May payrolls, but these data are wild and forecast margins of error are huge.
- Expect a benign hourly wage print; the April spike likely was noise rather than signal.
- The ISM survey shows manufacturing firmly in recession, and signals a deep inventory correction.
A second straight upside surprise, but no clear signal for payrolls
- We expect a clear slowing in ADP employment in May, but we care more about NFIB hiring intentions.
- Weak regional surveys and soft China PMIs point to a dip in ISM manufacturing; the sector is in recession.
- Auto sales likely dipped in May; the trend appears to be peaking as rates rocket and credit tightens.
Yet another grim manufacturing survey.
Still deteriorating, but at a less rapid pace.