Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

A solid headline number, but the labor market is a weak spot.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment Report, May

ADP is too unreliable to take seriously, though it’s consistent with our payroll forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

6 June 2024 US Monitor Dollar likely to depreciate as the Fed eases faster than other central banks

  • We expect EURUSD to weaken by 8% to 1.18 by year-end, as the Fed eases faster than the ECB.
  • Initial claims likely rose last week; public holidays depress them less now than seasonal adjustment assumes.
  • The ISM services index is an unreliable guide to activity, but a weak employment balance points to trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

5 June 2024 US Monitor The Q2 GDPNow forecast is still a lot of noise and not much signal

  • The drop in the Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow estimate says very little; it's still far more model than tracking.
  • April's JOLTS report brings further signs of labor market normalization. Lower wage growth is likely to follow.
  • ADP's data and the employment index of the ISM services survey are hopeless indicators of payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing recovery fizzling out before it has even begun.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

4 June 2024 US Monitor April quits rate likely still pointing to a further slowdown in wage growth

  • The quits rate likely remained just below its 2015-to-19 average in April, signalling slower ECI growth ahead.
  • Construction spending has stagnated this year, the boom in S&L and manufacturing spending is over. 
  • The ISM manufacturing slipped again in May. And a plunge in new orders signals more bad news ahead. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US Chicago PMI, May

A headscratcher, but an unreliable signal for the broader economy.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & spending, April

Real incomes, spending and core prices increases are all slowing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

3 June 2024 US Monitor Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts

  • The spike in the core PCE deflator is over, but Fed officials will want to see more data before they relax.
  • Consumers’ spending is on course for another modest 2%-ish increase in the second quarter.
  • Manufacturing is in better shape than implied by the grim Chicago PMI; auto sales headed for Q2 bounce.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: US GDP Second Estimate/Advance Goods Trade

GDP details better than the headline, but growth is slowing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,