US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Markets now see an even chance of a December rate cut, after a volley of hawkish Fed speeches...
- ...But no one has changed their view from September, and the official data will support the doves.
- Tinkering with tariffs on food would have only a very small impact on overall inflation.
Pointing to a sharp slowdown in wage growth.
- The October CPI probably will never be released, but indicators point to a mere 0.2% rise in the core.
- Pass-through from tariffs to goods prices appears to have slowed; vehicle prices still largely unaffected.
- Residual seasonality, lower health insurers’ margins and fading rent rises imply slower services inflation.
- Continuing claims are rising only gradually, but understate the recent increase in labor market slack.
- Federal staff who took deferred resignation offers are ineligible to claim; new graduates can’t claim either.
- Capex intentions have improved lately, but remain consistent with weak underlying investment.
Reliability questionable, but grim reading nonetheless.
- Comparing November’s UoM survey to its historical range overstates the depth of consumer gloom...
- ...But the massive deterioration in major purchase plans this year is too big to simply brush aside.
- Small businesses are bearing down on wage growth; pay rises of just 3% will be the norm next year.
Likely sending a false alarm on services inflation.
- The relationship between Challenger job cut announcements and actual layoffs has loosened lately...
- ...WARN filings are a better leading indicator; they also rose in October, but to a smaller extent.
- We agree with the consensus that break-even payroll growth is about 50K, but for first estimates its 100K.
- Goods exports are struggling, as foreign firms run down the inventory they amassed earlier this year.
- Services exports are flailing too, despite strong demand for software; US politics has put off tourists.
- Data centre construction is surging, but it is too small to provide much a of boost to the sector at large.
Tariff-led jump goods inflation likely to be temporary.
- The first ADP payroll estimate is among the worst indicators of both initial and benchmarked payroll data.
- The final data line up better, but only because ADP re-weights its data after benchmarking by the BLS.
- The Treasury’s method for inferring the CPI without BLS data implies a 0.36% monthly rise in October.
- The manufacturing sector has seen little benefit from the new tariffs so far this year…
- …Recent gains in output have been limited to a few industries that dance to the beat of their own drum…
- …Industrial policies have a role to play in reviving USmanufacturing, but tariffs are a blunt tool.
THE INFLATION OUTLOOK HAS IMPROVED...
- ...WHILE HIRING REMAINS DEPRESSED; MORE EASING AHEAD
- Continuing claims have returned to their rising trend; Homebase and Indeed data are also weakening.
- Bloomberg Second Measure and Redbook data point to retail sales losing momentum last month.
- Airline passenger numbers have picked up, but hotel room occupancy is now 2pp lower than a year ago.
Rates still too high for a sustained housing market renaissance.
- We calculate tariffs have lifted core PCE inflation by 0.4pp, below Mr. Powell’s “five to six tenths” estimate.
- Pass-through, however, is probably just over half complete, and services inflation will fall next year.
- The looming suspension of SNAP benefits could hit GDP by 0.2% if paused through the end of Q4.
- Chair Powell has jolted markets by saying a December easing is “not a foregone conclusion, far from it”...
- ...But most hiring indicators still point to near-stagnant payrolls; post-shutdown data will spur more easing.
- October’s regional Fed surveys point to flat employment demand and slower wage growth ahead.
- Conference Board job availability little changed in October, signalling a mere 50K rise in private jobs.
- New weekly ADP data are likely to mislead to an even greater extent than the long-running monthly series.
- A 25bp easing in the funds rate is almost certain today; Powell to be non-committal amid lack of data.
- Tariff revenues continue to underwhelm; the ending of the de minimis exemption has been uneventful.
- Accordingly, we are shaving 0.1pp off our forecast for the peak in core PCE inflation in December.
- Charts implying a dramatic rise in “different cell” imputation overstate the decline in data quality.
Services inflation likely to remain in check.
