- August unemployment has often surprised to the upside, perhaps due to shifting seasonality…
- …But continuing claims and state-level data suggest unemployment overshot its trend in July.
- Growth in unit labor costs is now running well below 2%, pointing to weak underlying inflation.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Homebase data point to strong August payrolls, but most other indicators signal another weak print.
- Our 125K forecast for private payrolls will be unaffected by ADP’s estimate today, whatever it says.
- Q3 GDP looks set to rise at a modest 1½% rate, despite recent momentum in real consumption.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Manufacturing on course for a fresh slump in Q3.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The details of the August ISM manufacturing survey are bleak, despite the uptick in the headline.
- Weakness in the manufacturing sector looks set to remain a small drag on payrolls and growth.
- The July JOLTS report will reinforce the message that the labor market is cooling.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
An unreliable bellwether for the national picture.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Undershooting the Fed’s June core PCE forecast for the third straight month.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Housing market activity likely to remain very weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Drag from trade on Q3 GDP growth likely to be offset elsewhere.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The rising trend has flattened off; expect a run of lower numbers this fall.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The core PCE deflator undershot the Fed’s forecast yet again in July; expect more benign prints in H2.
- Recent strength in consumption lacks solid foundations; the saving rate will be higher a year from now.
- The ISM probably remained soft in August, pointing to weak growth in manufacturing employment
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- The small recent rise in continuing claims suggests July’s unemployment rate was overestimated.
- We are pencilling in a 0.1pp dip in the rate to 4.2% in August, despite the worsening trend.
- The rapid 2.9% growth in consumers’ spending in Q2 looks unsustainable; expect a sharp slowdown.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- We look for little change in in initial jobless claims today, and a run of lower numbers this fall…
- …Leading indicators have improved and the seasonals will help; but lower hiring will slow job gains.
- The hit to growth from the rising trade deficit will be offset by boosts from inventories and investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Consumers unlikely to remain so upbeat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 0.13% rise in the July core PCE deflator, implying downside risk to the 0.2% consensus.
- Real consumption probably rose by 0.3% in July, setting up a strong base for growth in Q3…
- …But we expect a slowdown ahead, due to weak income growth and rising the saving rate.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Ignore the headline, the underlying trend is very weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Ignore the near-10% surge in headline durable goods orders in July; the details were weak…
- …Real core capital goods shipments fell by 0.5%, pointing to falling equipment investment in Q3.
- A hit to sentiment among Republicans probably weighed on overall consumer confidence in August.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
New home sales unlikely to keep rising.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech foreshadows a rapid easing of policy in the coming months.
- Headline durable goods orders likely jumped in July, but the details will be far less impressive.
- New home sales reportedly surged last month, but are unlikely to keep on climbing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
