US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
Samuel TombsUS
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- We estimate the core PCE deflator rose by 0.26% in July; most relevant PPI components rose modestly.
- The rise in distributors’ margins in the PPI is implausible, given surging tariff revenues and CPI data.
- We think hopes for a near-term “reshoring boost” to manufacturing look misplaced.
Samuel TombsUS
Collapsing response rate casts doubt, but the backdrop looks weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We estimate that AI-linked investment lifted GDP growth in H1 2025 by about half a percentage point.
- The aggressive capex plans of the big tech firms suggest a similar boost in the coming quarters.
- July's PPI data likely will show that retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins are being squeezed by tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Pass-through from the tariffs to consumer prices slowed in July, but will re-accelerate in the fall.
- The rebound in airline fares has further to run, but services inflation otherwise looks set to moderate.
- The FOMC likely will ease policy next month, despite more tariff-led inflation, to support the labor market.
Samuel TombsUS
- We look for a 1% gain in headline retail sales in July, mostly due to a rebound in auto sales…
- …But underlying sales likely were relatively weak again, with control sales volumes broadly stagnating.
- We think consumers' spending will grow by ½-to-1% in Q3, in keeping with the subdued pace in H1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Adobe and PriceStats data point to a slowing passthrough from the tariffs to consumer prices...
- ...But the ISM services survey sends the opposite signal; we are taking the middle position.
- Demand for air travel seems to be recovering, but hotel room rates likely are sustainably lower.
Samuel TombsUS
Flattered by GDP distortions in Q2, but the underlying trend still is solid.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- This year’s consumer slowdown has little to do with worries about taxes, more with trade and tariffs.
- The recent recovery in sentiment reduces recession risk, but the outlook for spending still is dim.
- Rising continuing claims reinforce the idea that the labor market has loosened materially.
Samuel TombsUS
Probably a false alarm on services inflation.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Swings in home prices have a far bigger dollar-for-dollar wealth effect than movements in stock prices.
- Ongoing weakness in the housing implies a trivial boost to consumption from asset prices in H2 2025.
- Labor-matching efficiency is impeded slightly by high new mortgage rates, but is comparable to the 2010s.
Samuel TombsUS
- China’s share of US imports has collapsed to just 7%, from 13%, but looks set to rebound soon.
- Some importers likely have gamed the de minimis exemption, but the loophole will close later this month.
- Services inflation likely will remain contained, despite the further increase in the ISM prices index.
Samuel TombsUS
- The average effective tariff rate has risen to 19%, from 16% a month ago; risks tilt towards a further rise.
- Shifting trade flows, margin compression and price rises abroad will temper the boost to consumer prices.
- The DOGE cuts were a small but significant drag on GDP in Q2, and probably will be again in Q3.
Samuel TombsUS
A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
Samuel TombsUS
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Samuel TombsUS
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
