US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.
- Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
- The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
- Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.
Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.
- Tax refunds are up only 10% year-over-year to date, far short of the near-30% rise we expected...
- ...But a meaningful boost to growth in consumers’ spending in H1 still looks likely.
- Layoff indicators remain subdued, but the renewed fall in NFIB hiring intentions implies weak job gains.
- The housing sector typically see the earliest and biggest boost from looser Fed policy…
- …But homebuilders face considerable headwinds, even if mortgage rates continue to fall.
- These constraints will blunt the boost from easier policy, making additional rate cuts more likely.
- Expect just a 0.2pp uplift to the CPI if the $10 jump in WTI oil prices lasts; the core CPI impact is a wash.
- We look for a 0.6% fall in headline sales in January, mostly due to a weather-linked plunge in auto sales.
- Winter Storm Fern likely weighed on sales ex-autos too, and the underlying trend also now is weak.
Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.
- February payrolls likely rose by only about 25K, below the trend, due to strikes.
- The weather was favorable in both January and February payroll survey weeks, so likely a neutral factor.
- The unemployment rate will repeat its past tendency of rebounding in February after dipping in January.
- The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
- The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
- PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.
- Tariff revenues were continuing to fall even before the Supreme Court’s ruling, as supply chains evolved.
- The effective rate likely is now just 8%; revenues are too low and the outlook too unclear for more tax cuts.
- February auto sales likely will maintain the downward trend; risks skewed towards a further decline ahead.
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
- AI-related capex and wealth effects from gains in tech stocks were major growth tailwinds in 2025.
- AI’s impact on productivity is less clear, although we see tentative signs of an small boost emerging.
- The impact on the labor market still appears modest, despite the scare stories.
- February regional Fed surveys point to sluggish growth in activity and continued capex caution.
- Employment intentions are unchanged from 2025; wage expectations point to inflation returning to 2%.
- The Conference Board survey’s labor market components point to further weakness ahead.
- The share of total consumption by the top 20% has been remarkable stable at 40% over the last 25 years.
- New sectoral data show no connection between the spending share of the top 20% and growth last year.
- High-income households became more cautious, accumulating liquid assets more quickly than in 2024.
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
