Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December

Sharp decline in inflation expectations is welcome news for the Fed.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

8 December 2023 US Monitor Homebase Signals Upside Payroll Risk, but Margins of Error are Huge

  • Homebase and the ISM services employment index signal upside payroll risk for November.
  • But the underlying state of the labor market is weakening, and wage growth is slowing.
  • Look at the Michigan expectations index, not the headline; it’s a better predictor of actual spending.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 December 2023 US Upward Revisions to GDI look more Likely than Cuts to GDP

  • The gap between the GDI and GDP numbers is unusually large by historic standards...
  • ...Undercounting of interest payments means that big upward revisions to GDI are a good bet.
  • ISM services signals modest and steady growth, but hints at a hefty bounce in October payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 December 2023 US Monitor Credit Growth is Slowing but Signs of Stress are Still Limited

  • Higher rates and tighter lending standards are depressing credit and constraining spending…
  • …But the hit is modest, so far, and the deterioration in credit quality is not yet alarming.
  • Initial jobless claims are wild around Thanksgiving, but look for a further increase in continuing claims.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 December 2023 US Monitor Quits Signal Slower Wage Gains

  • The quits rate fell much further than implied by the drop in unemployment during the Great Rehiring…
  • …It correctly signalled that wage gains would rocket, but now it tells the opposite story.
  • ISM services has tracked sideways in recent months, net; the pattern likely continued in November.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 December 2023 US Monitor Chair Powell's Optionality Line is Nominal, Not Real; they're Done

  • Chair Powell’s heart is no longer in the optionality story; he repeated it Friday but it’s no longer realistic.
  • The continued shrinkage of the M2 money supply is disconcerting, even for non-monetarists.
  • The manufacturing sector is in the doldrums, and auto sales are now trending down.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI/Pending Home Sales

The leap in the Chicago PMI likely is noise, not signal' a modest recovery in home sales lies ahead.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

1 December 2023 US Monitor Core PCE Price Increases are Running Barely Above Target Pace

  • Core PCE inflation is fading rapidly; in recent months it has run only just above 2% on a sequential basis.
  • Consumption spending slowed at the start of Q4, but likely is on course to rise at a 2%-plus rate.
  • Look for only a modest bounce in the ISM manufacturing index, despite the leap in the Chicago PMI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, October

Net trade unlikely to be a major swing factor in Q4 GDP growth.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

30 November 2023 US Monitor Core PCE Likely Benign in October, and Spending Growth Slowed

  • The October PCE data likely will confirm that core disinflation continues, but still has a way to go.
  • Spending growth appears to have moderated, though one softer month proves nothing.
  • Jobless claims likely rebounded last week, though the Thanksgiving seasonals are tricky.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 November 2023 US Monitor Tracking Holiday Spending in Real Time is Impossible, Alas

  • Treat everything you read about holiday spending with great skepticism; reliable data don’t exist.
  • Even the official retail sales numbers can’t be trusted until after at least one round of revisions.
  • The trade deficit was wild during and immediately after Covid, but it’s much calmer now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 November 2023 US Monitor Surveys of Consumers' Confidence are Flawed, But they are Not Useless

  • Gas and stock prices have an outsized influence on consumers’ confidence indexes, politics matters too.
  • The expectations subindexes historically have been a decent guide to real consumption spending.
  • Monthly swings in new home sales are mostly noise, but the trend is now flattening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 November 2023 US Monitor Business Investment Spending Stalled at the Start of Q4

  • Business CapEx looks to have stalled at the start of Q4, hit by rates and tight credit conditions.
  • Equipment spending is on course to fall for a second straight quarter, with only modest gains elsewhere.
  • Jobless claims surprised to the downside last week, but we expect a rebound in this week’s report.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders/Initial Jobless Claims

Business equipment investment on course for another decline in Q4; too early to conclude that claims are flattening.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence