US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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The first estimate of job postings is noisy; labor demand is still weakening.
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the pick-up in job openings; less volatile data from Indeed point to an ongoing downward trend.
- Low net hiring throughout October suggests payroll growth slowed primarily due to underlying weakness.
- ADP's data is a useless guide to the official estimate of private payrolls, including for every specific sector.
Samuel TombsUS
- Downward revisions to payrolls have been biggest in sectors with above-average shares of small firms.
- ADP and JOLTS data also suggest small businesses have slowed hiring more than large corporations.
- The manufacturing sector is showing signs of life, but major headwinds remain.
Samuel TombsUS
Tentative signs of improvement, but still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Expect an unconvincing 250K gain in November jobs; October weakness was more than Milton and strikes.
- The low response rate for October's estimate adds to uncertainty over the size of November's recovery...
- ...But household survey and claims data also suggest October’s slowing had little to do with bad weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Revisions reveal a weaker trend in household income growth and a lower saving rate.
Samuel TombsUS
Low initial claims still consistent with rising unemployment, given very muted hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Mirroring the late 2016 surge, when spending growth was unaffected.
Samuel TombsUS
Mostly a hurricane story, but sales probably will remain weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Trade re-routing and retailer margin compression likely will soften the tariff blow to consumer prices...
- ...Nevertheless, Mr. Trump's latest plans likely would lift the headline PCE deflator by a hefty 0.5% or so.
- Tariff “front-running” by companies looks set to step up soon, probably dragging slightly on GDP growth.
Samuel TombsUS
- Payrolls usually have been a better guide to the final GDP estimate one quarter ahead than current GDP...
- ...So the outlook for Q4 GDP likely is better signalled by the Q3 slowing in payrolls than still-strong GDP.
- Q4 consumption likely started strongly in October, but fading income growth is a troubling omen.
Samuel TombsUS
- The flash future output index of S&P composite PMI survey was no higher in November than in October.
- Consumers’ confidence is lower after the election than beforehand, according to the U. Mich survey.
- Employment and pricing indicators have continued to weaken; the FOMC very likely will ease next month.
Samuel TombsUS
WILL MARKETS’ ENTHUSIASM FOR MR. TRUMP PERSIST?
- …INFLATION RISKS ARE BIG ENOUGH TO SLOW FED EASING
Samuel TombsUS
Still weak, with no recovery likely anytime soon.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pick-up in continuing claims consistent with a further slowing in hiring.
Samuel TombsUS
- The PMI's future output index will provide the first good gauge of post-election business confidence.
- Early evidence implies consumer confidence has leapt; we look for upward revisions to UoM's survey.
- October's bump left existing home sales at a very low level; further weakness likely lies ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The "DOGE" target of $2T savings is ludicrous, but spending cuts could offset some of the tax cuts.
- Lower fiscal multipliers for tax cuts than for tariff rises and spending cuts also point to a small GDP boost.
- Seasonal adjustment will depress today's jobless claims data; expect a slightly rising trend this winter.
Samuel TombsUS
- Florida payrolls fell modestly in October, suggesting that the national trend is running close to 100K.
- We are sticking to our forecast for a 250K rebound in November payrolls, consistent with a slowing trend.
- October's drop in housing starts was weather-driven, but the outlook for residential investment is dim.
Samuel TombsUS
