Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)

28 November 2023 US Monitor Surveys of Consumers' Confidence are Flawed, But they are Not Useless

  • Gas and stock prices have an outsized influence on consumers’ confidence indexes, politics matters too.
  • The expectations subindexes historically have been a decent guide to real consumption spending.
  • Monthly swings in new home sales are mostly noise, but the trend is now flattening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 November 2023 US Monitor Business Investment Spending Stalled at the Start of Q4

  • Business CapEx looks to have stalled at the start of Q4, hit by rates and tight credit conditions.
  • Equipment spending is on course to fall for a second straight quarter, with only modest gains elsewhere.
  • Jobless claims surprised to the downside last week, but we expect a rebound in this week’s report.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 November 2023 US Monitor Pre-Holiday Data Likely will Reinforce the Softening Trends

  • The upturn in jobless claims bears close attention, though it’s much too soon to panic.
  • Ignore the wild durable goods headline; core capex orders are rising, but other data are less benign.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely will respond to cheaper gasoline; will inflation expectations do the same?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

November 2023 - U.S. Economic Chartbook



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 November 2023 US Monitor Homebase Data Signal a Clear Rebound in November Payrolls

  • The Homebase small business employment data point to a hefty rebound in November payrolls...
  • ...But the margin of error in all payroll forecasts is huge; the seasonals are an intractable problem.
  • No bottom yet for existing home sales, but supply is edging up, and valuations are falling as incomes rise.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

20 November 2023 US Monitor The Pre-Conditions for 2% Inflation are Mostly in Place

  • The supply-side factors we wanted to see in order to push inflation back down have all now normalized…
  • Excess demand is the last piece of the jigsaw; the lagged hit from the Fed’s hike will take care of it.
  • As demand moderates, gross margins will fall, pushing inflation back to target, and perhaps below it.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 November 2023 US Monitor Layoffs Might be Starting to Rise, but the Evidence is Still Mixed

  • The rebound in jobless claims in recent weeks is not yet definitive evidence of a shift in the trend.
  • The multi-family housing construction boom is over, though single-family starts are still rising.
  • The steep drops in manufacturing output and homebuilder sentiment reported yesterday won’t last.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 November 2023 US Monitor Can Kicked; Shutdown Threat Now in January and February Next Year

  • The House Continuing Resolution kicks the can down the road to January and February; it solves nothing.
  • October's retail sales numbers are consistent with a clear slowing in Q4 consumption growth.
  • PPI disinflation continues; the October numbers, alongside the CPI, signal a 0.25% core PCE print.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, October

The (almost) final nail in the coffin of the Fed's rate hike optionality

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 November 2023 US Monitor Markets no Longer Believe the Fed's Rate Hike Optionality

  • Markets have broken decisively from the Fed; inves- tors no longer believe in rate hike optionality.
  • Core CPI inflation ex-rents is now just 2.0% and fall- ing, and the pace of rent increases will slow sharply.
  • We’re sticking to our call for the first easing in March, but we doubt Chair Powell will quickly declare victory.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 November 2023 US Monitor Our October Core CPI Call is 0.4%, but 0.3% is More Likely than 0.5%.

  • October’s core CPI probably rose 0.4%, but the risks are biased to the downside.
  • Hotel room rates, health insurance and new vehicle prices all seem likely to have pushed up the core.
  • Our medium-term optimism remains, but disinflation won’t proceed in a neat straight line every month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 November 2023 US Monitor House Leadership has no Real Plan to a Avert a Government Shutdown

  • House Republicans are yet to coalesce around a funding plan that could pass the Senate…
  • …That might change, but right now a government shutdown starting at midnight Friday looks likely.
  • The spike in inflation expectations will reverse, but Fed policymakers will be unhappy in the meantime.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, November 4

Nudging back up, but no sustained increase visible on the near horizon

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 November 2023 US Monitor Households' Debt Servicing Costs will Rise Further, but Remain Manageable

  • Households’ debt service ratios have edged higher since the Fed starting raising rates, but remain low.
  • Debt service costs will rise further, but are unlikely to trigger sudden cuts to discretionary spending.
  • Consumers’ sentiment likely improved in November, and inflation expectations probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 November 2023 US Monitor How a Soft Landing Base Case Becomes a Full-Blown Recession

  • Our base case forecast is immaculate disinflation; no recession but inflation heading back to the target.
  • The net risk, though, is of a steeper downturn as businesses react to margin pressure with big layoffs.
  • In that case, inflation will fall faster and the Fed will cut aggressively, but credit and some stocks will suffer.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 November 2023 US Monitor Inventories are Wild, but they are Likely to be a Big Drag on Q4 GDP

  •  Inventories are noisy and can’t be forecast with confi- dence, but signs point to drag on Q4 GDP growth.
  • Real personal incomes after tax fell outright in the third quarter, but will rebound in the fourth...
  • ...Spending, though, likely will head in the opposite direction, we see few signs of an impending rollover.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 November 2023 US Monitor Fewer Banks are Tightening Credit Standards, but no one is Easing

  • The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey shows slightly fewer banks are still tightening lending standards…
  • …But on one is easing lending standards, and tight credit will constrain growth for the foreseeable future.
  • Consumer credit growth likely rebounded in September, but the trend is slowing.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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