Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, December

A lackluster post-election pick-up confidence; inflation worries in check for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, November

Services companies see few reasons for cheer in the election result.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade / Durable Goods Orders, October

Import stockpiling likely to resume; equipment investment probably weak again in Q4.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, October

 Mostly a hurricane story, but sales probably will remain weak.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, Oct.

 Hurricanes weigh on single-family starts, but the underlying trend is flat.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, November 9

The softening in the labor market remains very gradual.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US CPI, October

Consistent with a core PCE print on the 0.2-to-0.3% borderline.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

13 November 2024 US Monitor Hurricanes and warm weather likely meant weak control sales in October

  • Core retail sales usually struggle after hurricanes, and warm weather likely weighed on clothing sales.
  • Carryover from Q3 will support growth in consumption in Q4, but expect slower gains from here.
  • Credit conditions remain very restrictive, as banks have continued to tighten lending standards. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims/Productivity

Weak October payrolls were only partly due to strikes and storms.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US GDP, Q3 Advance Estimate

Solid growth unlikely to prevent a November easing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, October

No reason to change payroll forecasts, given ADP's poor record

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

31 October 2024 US Monitor The recent pace of GDP growth looks increasingly unsustainable

  • Strong growth in consumption drove another solid expansion in headline GDP in Q3. 
  • But household are running out of steam, and the cracks are starting to show in investment spending. 
  • Claims today are unlikely to tell us much about Milton’s likely impact on the October jobs report.   

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

29 October 2024 US Monitor Another quarter of solid growth in Q3, but the headwinds are mounting

  • We think GDP grew by 3.5% in Q3, underpinned by another solid increase in consumers’ spending.
  • But growth probably will slow sharply over the next few quarters, as households start to tire. 
  • The core PCE deflator likely rose by just 2.0%, and underlying inflation is set to remain in check. 

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,