Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause
- The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
- …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
- Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.
- In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.
Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall
- GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
- We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
- This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.
- Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
- Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
- We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.
Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects
- Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
- Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
- …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.
- In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.
- India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
- …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
- Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.
- In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.
Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war
- The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
- The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
- The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.
CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA
- …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE
- In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.
- Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
- The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
- The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.
Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately
- India’s PMIs have been softening for a while, but the Iran-war hit is notable, especially in manufacturing…
- …The complete PMIs for Q1 back our downbeat call for GDP of 6.1%; the long-term outlook is unfazed.
- Taiwanese retail sales—ex-vehicles—are better than they look; the war is unlikely to hurt tourist inflows.
- In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.
- Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
- … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
- The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.
