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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, August

  • In one line: Distorted by technicalities; real import demand remains healthy-ish.

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, August

  • In one line: Caused mainly by more moderate primary articles deflation; still tepid, overall.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, August

  • In one line: Expect this to be a temporary headline bounce.

15 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor EM Asia laggards won't chip away at the Asian Tigers' chip dominance

  • Emerging Asian countries have announced national strategies to enter the semiconductor market.
  • We think they will be unlikely to gain a meaningful foothold in manufacturing semiconductors.
  • If they play to their strengths, however, they could attract capital to other parts of the supply chain.

12 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Don't panic over Philippines' jobs data, but labour demand is waning

  • The Philippines’ unemployment rate in July jumped to its highest level in close to three years, at 5.3%…
  • …Adverse weather rightly was to blame, but hiring intentions are now weakening more noticeably.
  • Retail sales growth in Indonesia popped in July, but the long-term outlook remains very challenging.

10 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's new FM has a slightly easier hand; big questions remain

  • Indonesia’s finance minister is out, introducing uncertainty in an area of policy that’s been sound…
  • …Fortunately for Mr. Purbaya, the worst of the slump in public revenue growth should be over.
  • Taiwanese exports moderate, but not as sharply as expected, as the impact of the AI boom prevails.

9 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor More signs that Vietnam's US front-loading is over; Q2 still looking firm

  • Vietnam’s August export figures confirm that the front-loading to the US is well and truly over.
  • Our proxy GDP gauge is holding steady from Q2 at 6.8%; ‘official’ growth rate will probably be higher.
  • The household sector is still on the mend, finding greater support from the job market.

8 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Criticism of India's Q2 GDP deflator is valid; 'GST 2.0' no game-changer

  • We’ve created our own GDP deflator for India; it suggests that growth collapsed in Q2, to just 5.8%…
  • …The fiscal cost of ‘GST 2.0’ is small, so expect the same for its macro impact amid fiscal consolidation.
  • Taiwanese inflation ticked up to 1.6% in August , from 1.5%, as typhoon Podul drove up food prices.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, August

  • In one line: Hit by a descent into outright food deflation.

5 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Confident BNM holds fire on further easing, following July cut

  • BNM left the policy rate unchanged at 2.75%, as it remains confident despite US tariffs...
  • ...The Bank has seen strong orders for electronics and expects domestic demand to stay robust.
  • We’ve slashed our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts for Thailand to just -0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 3 September 2025

A more confident uptick in ASEAN manufacturing, with tariff clouds receding

4 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN factories have their heads more firmly above water, for now

  • ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI rose more comfortably above 50 in August, to 51.0…
  • …Consolidation above 50 is looking likely, with short-term leading indicators recovering in tandem.
  • But downside risks prevail over the long run; for now, we’ve yet to see firms cut prices to fight tariffs.

2 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Fundamentals will help to buttress the IDR's stability in the short run

  • Indonesia’s trade surplus is ballooning again, forcing upgrades to our current account forecasts…
  • …But support from US front-loading will soon fade; commodity prices won’t provide much of a cushion.
  • Rapidly waning core pressure is the main story behind the soft August CPI; one BI cut still to come.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 September 2025

Still-robust export growth is driving Indonesia’s trade surplus to its highest in years
Surprisingly soft CPI numbers all around for August

1 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's punchy Q2 GDP only skin-deep; H2 will be a tale of two halves

  • India’s ‘strong’ Q2 GDP, at 7.8%, was in large part down to a big, positive swing from discrepancies.
  • The data for Q3 so far point to another 7.0% print, at least; we now see full-year GDP growth at this pace.
  • We’ve cut our 2026 GDP growth forecast markedly, to 6.0%, taking into account the likely US tariff hit.

EM Asia Datanote: GDP, India, Q2

  • In one line: Flattered hugely by discrepancies, but some reassuring details nonetheless.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, June

  • In one line: Ignore the June bounce; consumption is still very much slowing.
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