EM Asia Datanote: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Decision, December 2025

• In one line: No rate cut needed.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.

18 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI holds but nods at future RRR action, while BoT eases again

• BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
• …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
• The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 December 2025

An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025

December 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA

• …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING

17 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Anticlimactic end to 2025 for India's PMIs; a sign of what's to come?

• India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
• …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
• A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, November 2025

• In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 December 2025

Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, November 2025

• In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 December 2025

Malaysian retail sales are pretty static, again.

15 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Real turn in Indian food deflation yet to come, but it's imminent

• The November bounce in Indian inflation was due mainly to lingering Diwali-related noise in food…
• …Supply points to a persistent rise in food CPI in 2026, but low expectations will be a ‘core’ anchor.
• Malaysian retail sales growth is still flat, but the government is trying to boost tourism for 2026.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 December 2025

BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, Taiwan, November 2025

• In one line: Export growth remains eye-wateringly high.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 December 2025

Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate

10 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export growth hits 56%; is millennium-high GDP growth next?

• Taiwan’s exports exploded by 56% in November, far above expectations, driven by AI server demand…
• …We are now upgrading our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 12.0%, the highest this millennium.
• Philippine sales volumes continue to slump; only so much borrowing and remittances can do.

9 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's exports continue to cool on US payback, but Q4 looks solid

• Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
• …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
• Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 December 2025

RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide