20 April 2026 Emerging Asia Has Singapore taken Hong Kong's crown as a financial hub for Asia?

• We think GDP growth in Singapore will slow to 3.0% this year, with risks tilted to the downside.
• Singapore has cemented its role as a financial hub in Asia, which has been helped by policy...
• ...But further expansion could be limited if Hong Kong manages to lure back banks and workers.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Taiwan, March 2026

• In one line: Not as bad as we all thought.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 April 2026

RBI is keeping calm and carrying on with a sensible pause

9 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI's April CPI forecasts alreadydated; we cut our 2026 call to 3.7%

• The RBI stayed on hold, as expected, while its new CPI outlook already looks dated, post-ceasefire…
• …A smaller diesel-price hike is now likely, and food gains have peaked; we see 2026 CPI at 3.7%.
• Taiwan’s inflation fell more than expected in March; the CBC‘s red line looks secure, for now.

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, Thailand, March 2026

• In one line: The bigger jolt will come in April.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 April 2026

Oil surge leads to an immediate breach of the BSP’s target range
Recovering domestic demand will soon hit a brick wall

8 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's solid Q1 GDP may be as good as it gets in 2026

• GDP growth in Vietnam cooled just a tad in Q1, to 8.0% from 8.3%, if stripping out residual seasonality.
• We still see full-year 2026 growth moderating to 7.5%; high export base effects are now in the frame.
• This oil shock is looking worse for Vietnam than the one in 2022; we’ve raised our 2026 CPI call to 4.8%.

7 April 2026 Emerging Asia Indonesia's austerity drive partly a catch-up play; fuel hike still likely

• Indonesia made a host of current spending cuts last week, but we still think a fuel-price hike is likely.
• Real GST growth in India held steady in March, indicating no rapid hit from the war or INR fallout.
• We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecast for Thailand further, to 1.3%, given the latest diesel-price rise.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 April 2026

Iran war hits most ASEAN factories hard; price shock immediate and big
Indonesia’s trade surplus and exports will soon see brighter days
A swift return to BI’s target range thanks to base effects

2 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Inflation, not growth, is a bigger near-term issue for ASEAN factories

• Stagflationary signs were seen in ASEAN’s PMI, as in India, but inflation is a bigger worry for the former.
• Indonesia’s soft March CPI is a big misdirect; we now see an eventual fuel price hike of 5% this year…
• …February’s export print was a let-down, but should mark the year’s low, as commodities will soon help.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, January 2026

• In one line: Underlying spending growth was still in recovery mode pre-Iran war.

1 April 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Confirmation the GST pop in Indian IP is over; fuel-tax cut no relief

• India’s Feb. IP validates our above-consensus call, but the post-GST pop in consumer goods is done…
• …Output looks poised to hit a wall in March; last week’s fuel-tax cuts buy consumers time, not relief.
• Thai consumption was having a decent Q1 pre-war, amid an easing in structural high-debt headwinds.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, February 2026

• In one line: Likely as good as we’ll get in H1, if not 2026 at large.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 March 2026

Two-way trade in the Philippines was picking up steam before the war

30 March 2026 Emerging Asia INR's 'record' fall in context; more a threat to Q2 growth than inflation

• The INR fell below the symbolic 94 level versus USD last week; the threat is to growth, not so much CPI.
• The BSP held at its off-cycle meeting last Thursday, while likely inadvertently setting a high bar for hikes.
• The global energy shock is hitting inflation harder in Thailand; we’ve raised our 2026 forecast to 0.9%.

March 2026 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CPI FORECASTS UP ACROSS THE BOARD IN EM ASIA

• …BUT FROM LOW STARTING POINTS; ONLY SBV SET TO HIKE

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Taiwan, February

• In one line: Q1 consumption remains firm.

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, February 2026

• In one line: Fundamental downward pressure on the THB is building rapidly.

26 March 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Oil surge will pull Thailand's current account into modest deficit in 2026

• Thailand’s customs trade deficit in February was a big miss, but this has been deteriorating for a while.
• The oil-price spike will likely see a current account deficit of -1.5% this year, after +3.1% in 2025.
• The BoT won’t mind if the THB falls further though, as it rightly has been more worried about strength.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 March 2026

Iran war, unsurprisingly, hits India's PMIs immediately