Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
- …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
- India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
- Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
- …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
- …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
- Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP restarted its easing cycle this month with a 25bp cut, to 5.50%, after February’s shock pause…
- …The Board is no longer behind the curve on CPI, as it slashed its 2025 forecast to 2.3%, from 3.5%.
- We’re maintaining our 2.5% CPI call, for now, and still see 75bp more in rate cuts by year-end.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts from the RBI
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The RBI voted unanimously for a second 25bp rate cut and a shift in stance to “accommodative”.
- Its softer CPI forecasts now see below-target inflation persisting until the end of this year…
- …Opening the door to at least two more cuts—our baseline—more than the consensus for just one.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Short-lived, policy-induced deflation in Indonesia is over
How high can Philippine sales go before they hit a ceiling?
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian CPI returned to the black in March, as the power discounts expired; food will soon U-turn.
- The Philippines’ sales index continues to surge, but a number of consumer sectors are still struggling.
- Food inflation in Taiwan continues to rise, though some of this is exaggerated by base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Seasonally adjusting Vietnam’s quirky GDP data shows that growth improved further in Q1, to 7.3%…
- …But a sharp fall by year-end to sub-5%—at least— looks inevitable, as US tariffs hit exports and capex.
- Outright deflation in Thailand seems set to take hold, again, bolstering our call for an April BoT cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
- …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
- We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The manufacturing PMIs for India and ASEAN have regained momentum recently; Taiwan is wobbling…
- …But the pick-up within ASEAN is skewed; expect domestic demand’s outperformance to continue.
- Regional export volumes are hovering above trend, implying they could stomach a big hit from tariffs.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
- The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
- …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: First red ink since mid-2023, as the inexplicable lift from ‘other’ sales continues to unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine trade takes a breather after a fast start to 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Don’t pay too much heed to the panic over the IDR; the current account fundamentals are sound…
- …Plus, the bad fiscal start could just be a blip and foreign investor s are steadily returning to the fray.
- The big misses in Philippine trade data for February, particularly in imports, aren’t as bad as they seem.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
