Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
A robust end to the year for Thai exports, despite flattening DM demand
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales look like they are picking up, as growth rose to 2.9% year-over-year in December.
- This is not the whole story; paradoxically, inflation continues to bolster the headline figure.
- Three typhoons, stubborn inflation and high credit costs have led to sluggish increases in volumes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s volatile gold imports corrected sharply in December, but their upward normalisation is intact.
- Total exports enjoyed a solid Q4, as the goods side revived, though services faltered heading into 2025.
- Net trade should hit Q4 GDP by 0.2pp, down from +1.5pp in Q3, due to adverse import base effects.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Every major city in Taiwan is now “impossibly unaffordable”; the housing bubble is expanding.
- The central bank is trying to dampen demand, but overly aggressive policies may create a crisis...
- …The opposite, however, would increase the risk of a more severe housing-price crash down the line.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Gold imports correct sharply—again—but their broad trend is upwards.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Ignore the volatility, Indonesia's trade surplus is growing, slowly
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia surprised the universal consensus for a hold this month, lowering the BI rate to 5.75%…
- …The Board is right to tolerate the rupiah’s dollar- driven slump, amid its rising GDP growth worries.
- Ignore the December collapse in the trade surplus; smoothing out the noise yields a rising trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Expect a quieter year for Indian WPI inflation in 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
