6 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Dubious leap in public spending behind Indonesia's Q1 GDP beat

GDP growth in Indonesia set a new post-Covid high in Q1, rising further to 5.6%, against the consensus.
But underlying the strong headline is a questionable jump in government spending; austerity incoming.
We’ve raised our 2026 growth forecast to 5.2%, still expecting a slowdown to sub-5% rates by year-end.

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence