Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
- …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
- Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’
- …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
- The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
- We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
- …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
- Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
A strong finish to India’s Q2, if June's flash PMIs hold
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Hit by free-falling electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
- …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
- Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Rightly unfazed, for now, by the upswing in oil prices.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
- …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
- The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Sticking to the gradualist approach, for now.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Export front-running in Thai exports is still going strong
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
- …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
- Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian retail sales moderated in April; we are worried about its failure to reach pre-Covid levels.
- Debt is high, but this shouldn’t risk the outlook for long-term sales, as most of it is secured borrowing.
- Indonesian sales faltered in April; the mini-stimulus won’t help, especially with confidence tanking.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indian inflation dropped to its lowest level in over six years in May, coming in below expectations at 2.8%.
- Food disinflation is still the overriding story, and our daily tracker points to outright deflation here soon.
- We’ve cut our 2025 forecast to 2.8%, but raised our 2026 call to 5.0%, with this year’s base so low.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports surprised in May, rising 38.6%, up from 29.9% in April; the front-loading continues…
- …This will likely mean the central bank holds back on easing when it meets next week.
- Thai deflation likely hit a low in May, but the strengthening THB could lead to its return next year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
