Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
- In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.
- The November bounce in Indian inflation was due mainly to lingering Diwali-related noise in food…
- …Supply points to a persistent rise in food CPI in 2026, but low expectations will be a ‘core’ anchor.
- Malaysian retail sales growth is still flat, but the government is trying to boost tourism for 2026.
BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%
- The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
- …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
- Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.
A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth
Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate
- Export growth in Vietnam disappointed again in November, as US shipments continue to flail…
- …Overall downside risks are receding though, and the Q4 data point to still-healthy GDP growth.
- Inflation in Taiwan eased sharply in November to 1.2%, but purely due to high base effects.
RBI not buying 8%-plus growth either, but taking the chance before CPI mean-reverts
Already-low food inflation in the Philippines continues to backslide
- The RBI resumed easing, cutting by a further 25bp, but we still believe this was its last reduction…
- …The MPC’s tone was more neutral, and the mean reversion up in CPI in 2026 will lower real rate s.
- Philippine inflation missed to the downside in November, adding weight to our dovish BSP call.
- Thailand’s November CPI prints were firmer than expected, but we still see an MPC cut this month.
- We’ve raised our 2025 forecast to -0.1%, while simultaneously cutting our 2026 call to 0.0%…
- … Another power tariff cut is scheduled for January, and underlying inflation pressures are non- existent.
Food inflation returns to the black in Thailand
- Taiwan’s Q3 GDP growth was revised up to 8.2%—a 0.6pp rise— driven by a bigger boost from net trade.
- More granular data on investment reveals its overall weakness was due to inventory drawdown.
- India’s IP and GST readings for Q4-to-date are less alarming once Diwali noise is stripped out.
- In one line: Made to look much worse by Diwali distortions.
- ASEAN’s PMI rose to a 38-month high in November, but a few of the drivers are questionable.
- Indonesian exports missed badly in October, but commodities should be more supportive next year.
- Food disinflation is back in Indonesia, dragging the headline rate below the consensus for November
ASEAN’s PMI strengthens to a 38-month high
Indonesian export growth finally comes back down to earth; 2027 should be a bit better
The turn in rising food inflation in Indonesia is here
- In one line: Not worth the paper it’s printed on.
- In one line: The theatre of the absurd is back.
Ignore the Philippines’ misleading y/y trade headlines
THAI AND PHILIPPINE GROWTH SLOWEST SINCE COVID
- TAIWAN IS STILL FLYING, BUT THE TURN IN GDP HAS COME
- India finally implemented its new labour codes after five years of dithering, reviving reform momentum…
- …But the structural employment shift from farming will still be held back by huge agricultural support.
- On the surface, the strong and market-beating Q3 GDP is beyond absurd; tread very carefully.
