14 May 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian inflation now unlikely to breach 4%; watch food U-turn

Headline inflation in India was much softer than expected in April, merely inching up to 3.5%...
...Low food-price base effects were the sole reason; our daily food tracker points to a big reversal in May.
We’ve cut our 2026 average inflation forecast to 3.4%, even if diesel prices are raised by up to 8%.

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