Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Singapore’s combined January-to-February CPI suggests that inflation is still ticking up in Q1...
- …We note an alarming increase in health insurance premiums, which is being reined in for Q2.
- The Middle East energy crisis looks set to push inflation above 2% in Q2.
Inflation broadly accelerating in Singapore in Q1
- In one line: Infrastructure sectors carrying more of the weight alone; overall momentum still solid.
- Last week’s fuel-price gains in the Philippines and the firmer oil outlook will lead to 4%-plus inflation…
- … A hike is now on the table for April, but it would be rash, given the more forgiving backdrop this time.
- The start of modest fuel-price rises in Thailand will help lift the economy out of outright deflation.
Malaysian headline export growth in Q1 still up from Q4, despite February miss
Inflation at bay, for now
- Malaysian current average Q1 expor ts are growing by 15.1%, meaning Q1 GDP will likely be strong…
- …Inflation was held at bay in Februar y but will now likely rise, because of higher crude oil prices.
- Taiwan’s central bank left rates on hold, and seems to be too sanguine about growth in 2026.
- Oil at $150 should pose no urgent CPI risk to India; fiscally, it’s better placed to manage this shock…
- …Main threat would be higher imported inflation from late-2026, as the CA deficit would blow up.
- Indonesia could see an 11% rise in subsidised fuel prices this year—more than in 2022—with $150 oil.
Electronic exports in Singapore continue to boom
- Bank Indonesia held rates yesterday, as expected, and no longer pledged to find room for more cuts.
- We lower our estimate for India’s current account deficit this year to -3.0% of GDP, due to the oil crisis.
- Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports for January- to-February point to 49.7% growth in electronics.
- In one line: Big short-term downside risks to the deficit due to the Iran war.
Iran war forcing an upgrade to our 2026 India WPI forecast to 5%
- Introducing our regional activity heat maps, giving a snapshot of cyclical growth stage and momentum…
- …They show that major exporters continue to outperform domestic-oriented peers in early 2026.
- Indian inflation rose further in February on food prices; our 4.0% view for 2026 remains appropriate.
- In one line: Still mainly a food story, but Middle East pressures should surface in the March data.
Brace for a potential inflation hit to Malaysian retail sales growth this year
- Malaysian January retail sales volumes dipped on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis.
- We expect a mild increase in inflation over the year because of the Middle East crisis...
- …Which could create risks to financial stability, via higher debt, if it doesn’t curb consumer spending.
A decent, if unimpressive, start to the year for Indonesian retail sales
- The Philippines’ staggered fuel hikes won’t stop inflation from jumping above 3% this month…
- …Vietnam’s much larger adjustment bolsters our view that the SBV will hike rates at least once in H2.
- The modest pace of Indonesian retail sales growth is looking increasingly fragile once again.
- In one line: AI server growth moderating.
- The spike and projected stickiness in oil prices due to the Middle East unrest is now material for Asia…
- …We’ve raised our 2026 inflation forecasts for India and Indonesia to 4.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
- Taiwan’s exports moderated in February amid Lunar New Year noise, but now face serious energy risk.
- In one line: Lunar New Year distortions.
