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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October

  • In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 November 2024

Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: October CPI & September IP, India

  • In one line: A December rate cut is only just barely alive; a weak Q3 GDP print could still sway things.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian GDP growth to drop to 6% in Q3, reviving a December RBI cut

  • Our final Q3 GDP growth forecast for India sees it collapsing further to 6.0%, from 6.7% in Q2…
  • …Falling short of the RBI’s view for a bounce to 7.0% and keeping the door open to a December rate cut.
  • October CPI was very hot, but food inflation—and, by extension, the headline—likely has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 12 November 2024

Frustratingly slow recovery in Indonesian retail sales continues

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesian sales growth this year a series of false starts

  •  Indonesian retail sales growth is faltering—again—amid low real wage growth and fading confidence…
  • …Sentiment has yet to see any rise despite falling inflation and the promise of a new government.
  • Job expectations are still deteriorating the most; soft consumption looks set to continue in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Painful reality check for the Philippines' economic recovery

  • Philippine GDP growth dropped sharply to 5.2% in Q3, from 6.4% in Q2, decisively below expectations.
  • Our seasonal adjustment shows that growth lost quarterly momentum; households remain anaemic.
  • The capex outlook is no longer deteriorating, but BSP policy looks set to remain tighter; thank Trump.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 November 2024

Vietnamese exports are once again losing momentum
The softening in ‘official’ retail sales growth in Vietnam is far from over
The impact of Yagi on Vietnamese food inflation continues to be felt
The ghost of the short-lived previous administration pushes Thai inflation up further in October
Philippine sales had a forgetful Q3 at the end of the day; all eyes on tomorrow's GDP release
An abysmal September effectively has written off Q3 for Philippine exports

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnamese export growth hits a ceiling; Trump a real risk for 2025

  • Export growth in Vietnam fell further in October; this will persist, with momentum and orders fading.
  • Mr. Trump's proposed tariffs could be a ‘win’ for Vietnam, if it isn’t targeted with specific measures…
  • …His own corporate interests locally might mitigate the risks, but the VND will stay in the spotlight.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 November 2024

Inventories spike keeps Indonesian GDP growth from slowing more sharply in Q3
Inflation in the Philippines should stabilise near the lower end of the BSP’s range

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted

  • GDP growth in Indonesia missed expectations in Q3, slipping to 4.9% from 5.0% in Q2…
  • …An historic leap in inventories prevented a sharper drop, but this sets up a painful payback in Q4.
  • Trade and related investment were real bright spots, while consumption remains relatively lacklustre.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues

  • The PMI for ASEAN was unchanged in October, at 50.5, despite a post-Yagi bounce-back in Vietnam…
  • …Export-oriented countries, at large, have lost a lot of steam recently, in a warning sign for world trade.
  • Indonesia’s sluggishness is a huge drag, given its sheer size; the rise in lead times is reversing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

4 November 2024 Emerging Asia Expecting another 5% GDP print from Indonesia is wishful thinking

  • We see Indonesian GDP growth slipping to 4.8% in Q3 on waning consumption and a modest trade hit .
  • Government spending and investment should offer some cushion, partly with help from base effects.
  • Philippine GDP growth likely relapsed to 4.6% in Q3, in line with the sluggishness in consumption.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 October 2024 Emerging Asia October minutes reveal cracks in RBI's status-quo majority bloc

  • The minutes of the RBI’s October meeting suggest a possible pathway to a 4-to-2 cut in December.
  • Core IP growth should bounce modestly in September, but largely on a base-effect technicality.
  • Taiwanese GDP growth likely slowed further in Q3, to 3.4%, as support from domestic demand wanes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 24 October 2024

India’s PMIs start Q4 on a cautiously better note, after the September carnage

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor India's PMIs start Q4 respectably, but their downtrend remains intact

  • India’s flash PMIs for October show a bounce in both surveys from the painful September plunge.
  • The moderating trend from the Q1 highs is still intact, though; the same is true for leading gauges.
  • Both surveys suggest that hiring is going gang-busters, but we aren’t moved, looking at the EPFO.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

October 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

A SECOND BOT CUT IN DECEMBER IS TOUCH-AND-GO

  • …THE RBI TURNS ‘NEUTRAL’; ALL EYES ON Q3 GDP

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 October 2024 Emerging Asia Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore's scorching Q3

  • An overdue revival in manufacturing drove almost all of Singapore’s hot advance Q3 GDP surprise…
  • …But this may be a one-off, as export growth likely will cool soon; the construction outlook is still solid.
  • Adverse export base effects should see trade hitting India’s Q3 GDP; we’ll be downgrading our 6.4% call.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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