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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 May 2025

Huge bounce in Philippine imports masks a broad-based Q1 improvement

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippines' Q1 wasn't that bad but may be as good as it gets for 2025

  • GDP growth in the Philippines inched up in Q1, to 5.4%, but a big import bounce is to blame…
  • …Activity broadly improved, especially government spending, though the Q1 bump should be a one-off.
  • Consumption should improve this year due to low inflation, while capex still faces many headwinds.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 May 2025

An overdue—and big—m/m correction in Philippine sales to close Q1

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "Liberation Day" pushes ASEAN's PMI off a cliff, but let's not panic yet

  • ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI plunged to a new post-Covid low in the wake of “Liberation Day”…
  • …But it looks like China’s struggles are more pressing, for now, and it’s best to wait for hard IP data.
  • We’ve slashed our 2025 average inflation forecast for the Philippines to just 1.8%, from 2.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 May 2025

Front-loading of Vietnamese exports to the US looks to have hit a ceiling
A quiet start to Q2 for retail sales in Vietnam, following a robust Q1
Lots of moving parts, but April saw no change to Vietnamese inflation
Below-target-range inflation in the Philippines looks set to persist until year-end
This bout of Thai deflation should be short and shallow

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Waning momentum should refocus BI more towards growth

  • Indonesian growth fell to 4.9% in Q1, as base effects hit public spending and construction flat-lined…
  • …Machinery capex should come under more pressure soon, with Chinese import demand cratering.
  • We have cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast slightly, to 4.9% from 5.0%, and still see 100bp in BI cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A hot--if skin-deep--April CPI print in Indonesia; more of such to come

  • Indonesian CPI came in above expectations in April, mainly reflecting the end of power discounts.
  • The consensus for the Philippines’ Q1 GDP is well-positioned; we expect a similar-ish 5.8% print.
  • The MAS is likely to ease policy further in July, but October could be more 50-50.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 May 2025

Indonesia’s electricity discounts are now well and truly a thing of the past

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, February

  • In one line: Ignore the inflated headline, but households had a decent Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

  • In one line: Compelled by the US’ tariff war, and allowed for by a resumption of sub-1% inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 April 2025

Underneath the surface; a weak close to a robust Q1 for Philippine trade

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

April 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

FACTORY ASIA—EX-CHINA—IS DOWN, BUT NOT OUT

  • …MORE CUTS TO COME FROM THE RBI AND THE BSP

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 May 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariffs spook the BoT to cut again, and lower its GDP outlook markedly

  • The BoT enacted a second straight 25bp rate cut, to 1.75%, in the wake of the US’s tariff aggression…
  • …We think it has left the door open to, but also set the bar high for, extra cuts; for now, we see no more.
  • Our final GDP forecast for Q1 sees only a minor slip in headline growth to 2.9%, from 3.2% in Q4.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

29 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor US front-running huge for Thai exports in Q1, but offsets abound

  • Thai exports continued to soar in Q1, on the back of US tariff front-loading, which leapt in March…
  • …But their boost to GDP growth should be counter-balanced markedly by much more destocking…
  • …While service exports likely will impose their first big drag post-Covid, given falling Chinese tourists.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 25 April 2025

Bigger US front-loading drives Thai export growth to a 3-year high

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

28 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Beware the durability of the ongoing upturn in India's PMIs

  • India’s flash PMIs for April were solid, albeit backed seemingly by unsustainable export front-running.
  • The year-over-year change in the PMIs still points to sub-6% GDP growth; a warning to rosy consensus…
  • …The RBI’s consumer survey shows that the recovery in planned spending is starting to top out.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor 2025 growth downgrades reveal BI's real longer-term anxieties

  • Bank Indonesia stayed on hold this month, but—rightly—downgraded its 2025 growth forecasts…
  • …Consumption is still struggling to increase more meaningfully, and confidence is starting to wobble.
  • India’s trade deficit ballooned unexpectedly in March, but underlying import demand is flailing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Easter rewind: the start of tougher times for Indonesian exports

  • Ignore Indonesia’s larger-than-expected surplus in March; export growth will be weaker from Q2.
  • Expect more downside this month after Indian inflation fell to a five-year-plus low in March…
  • …Our food-price tracker indicates downside risks are still intensifying; our 2025 CPI call is now 3.0%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

14 April 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor 'Factory Asia'--ex-China--won't break, even if April 9 tariffs return

  • Doomsday takes on the future of EM Asia ex-China are overblown, even if the “reciprocal” tariffs return…
  • …They’d still give the China+1 wave an inadvertent boost; cheap labour won’t disappear overnight.
  • Taiwan’s exports softened in March but remain in double digits, as apparent front-loading continues.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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