PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 January 2026

Reviving food inflation should soon return Thai CPI to the black

8 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor No need to rethink our February BSP cut call after hot December CP

• The Philippines’ hot December CPI was no surprise to us; we still expect a February BSP rate cut.
• Thai deflation eased as much as expected in December, but core disappointed to the downside.
• Taiwanese CPI inched up in December, but we think it will trend down further this year.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 January 2026

GDP growth in Vietnam surprisingly holds steady above 8%
A robust end to the year for Vietnamese exports, but momentum continues to fade
December bump salvages Vietnamese real retail sales in Q4
Rising food inflation in Vietnam cushions what could have been a bigger December deceleration
Encouraging, but Philippine sales are still broadly struggling
Philippine food inflation is finally reviving

7 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Reasons to believe Vietnam's Q4 GDP growth shock is the peak

• GDP growth in Vietnam surprised massively to the upside in Q4, rising to 8.4% from 8.1% in Q3…
• …But we still expect to see a sustained moderation this year; our revised 2026 forecast is 7.5%.
• Export momentum has almost vanished, FDI is rolling over, and wage growth is softening.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 5 January 2026

The H2 surge in ASEAN manufacturing ends on a soft note
Slump in Indonesian export growth should soon bottom-out
Brace for a Q1 spike in headline inflation in Indonesia

5 January 2026 Emerging Asia Monitor Festive rewind: India's Nov. IP trick; strong Thai US exports are no cure

• India’s punchy November IP print is a big head-fake; cooling manufacturing will hit Q4 GDP growth.
• Thailand’s exports to the US are still soaring, but likely to no real avail for the broader economy…
• …The overall Q4 numbers to date suggest the economy faces a real risk of a technical recession.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Look for a change in strategy—to RRR cuts—next year.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, December 2025

• In one line: Expect a quick follow-up cut in February.

18 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BI holds but nods at future RRR action, while BoT eases again

• BI kept its benchmark rate at 4.75%, in line with most expectations; the real rate is close to neutral…
• …Its tone remains dovish, and we continue to believe next year will see a tactical shift to RRR cuts.
• The BoT resumed easing with a 25bp cut; we still expect a quick follow-up cut at February’s meeting.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 16 December 2025

An anticlimactic end for India’s PMIs to 2025

December 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

Q3 SHOULD BE THE PEAK IN INDIA’S ABSURD GDP DATA

• …TAIWANESE EXPORTS SHOWING NO SIGN OF PAUSING

17 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Anticlimactic end to 2025 for India's PMIs; a sign of what's to come?

• India’s PMIs continued to roll over in December, altogether pointing to a Q4 GDP growth U-turn…
• …The future output sub-index is going from bad to worse, adding weight to our downbeat 2026 view.
• A plunge in gold imports drove the shrinkage of the trade gap last month, but US exports are bouncing.

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, November 2025

• In one line: Historic leap in gold imports in October unwinds dramatically.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 December 2025

Upstream food price pressures in India are reviving more noticeably

EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, November 2025

• In one line: Muddied by residual seasonality, but vegetable-price pressures are reviving.

15 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Real turn in Indian food deflation yet to come, but it's imminent

• The November bounce in Indian inflation was due mainly to lingering Diwali-related noise in food…
• …Supply points to a persistent rise in food CPI in 2026, but low expectations will be a ‘core’ anchor.
• Malaysian retail sales growth is still flat, but the government is trying to boost tourism for 2026.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 December 2025

BSP easing “nearing its end”, but we still see a terminal rate of 4.25%

12 December 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor "End" to BSP's easing will come when rates fall to 4.25%

• The BSP eased policy further this month, cutting its
  benchmark rate by a further 25bp to 4.50%…
• …We still see a terminal rate of 4.25%; growth
  worries are likely to continue to outweigh CPI risks.
• Indonesian sales growth looks set to hit a 20-month
  high in November, but it may also soon hit a ceiling.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 December 2025

A clear, but fragile, recovery in Indonesian sales growth

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 December 2025

Negative sales readings in the Philippines are imminent, at this rate