Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

1 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai consumption remains sluggish, with large headwinds intensifying

  • Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
  • …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
  • Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 June 2025

A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Hoping we're not jinxing it...we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025

  • We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
  • …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
  • Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

June 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’

  • …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BoT hits pause and ups its 2025 outlook post-"Liberation Day" chaos

  • The BoT yesterday left the policy rate steady after two consecutive cuts, in line with our expectation.
  • The MPC’s worst fears at the April meeting have been averted, leading to an upgrade to its GDP call.
  • We maintain that 1.75% is the terminal rate, though the risks are still clearly skewed to the downside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Solid end to Q2, but India's PMIs still point to soft-ish GDP growth

  • India’s flash PMIs for June were robust, but note they remain susceptible to huge downgrades…
  • …And they’re still down year-over-year in Q2, indicating big downside risk to GDP forecasts.
  • Other details show waning optimism over the long run, and downward pressure building on core CPI.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

23 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Collapsing commodity demand weighs on Malaysian exports

  • Malaysian exports unexpectedly fell by 1.1% in May, because of subdued commodity demand…
  • …Weak crude oil futures and declining LNG demand will continue to drag on exports in H2.
  • Thai stocks are slumping amid new political turmoil; instability is a known risk, so expect no quick fixes.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BSP, rightly unfazed by oil prices, leaves door open to two more cuts

  • The BSP cut rates by another 25bp, to 5.25%, while slashing its 2025 inflation forecast to just 1.6%…
  • …We expect two more reductions by year-end, a scenario Mr. Remolona implied is on the cards.
  • The CBC is not under enough pressure to consider a rate cut; the surge in the TWD could change this.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

19 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Front-running of Thai exports expanding, but H2 outlook souring

  • Thai export growth soared to a fresh multi-year high in May, as the front-loading broadened in scope…
  • …But short-term leading indicators are still weakening, further clouding the H2 payback story.
  • Bank Indonesia went back to a pause after its April cut, but we expect 75bp in further easing in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Singapore's NODX disappointment in May has been on the card

  • Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
  • The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
  • …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

  • In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May

  • In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Emerging Asia Documents

Emerging Asia Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,