EM Asia Datanote: CPI, India, September 2025

• In one line: Food & beverage deflation is back, and will likely deepen this month.

13 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor AI boom continues to support Taiwan's exports, despite slight dip

• Export growth in Taiwan missed expectations, but it moderated only slightly and is still historically high.
• Strong quarter-to-quarter export growth points to a solid overall Q3 GDP growth print.
• Inflation is declining again, despite the recent typhoons, underpinned by falling crude oil prices.

EM Asia Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Surprise, surprise… we weren’t at the “sweet spot” after all.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 October 2025

Q3 is shaping up to be fairly decent for Indonesian retail sales

10 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor A rude, if long overdue, awakening for the BSP's talk of a "sweet spot"

• The BSP surprised yesterday with another 25bp cut to its policy rate, as it rejigged its growth views…
• …But the weakness in business confidence has been in play for a while; we now see two more cuts.
• Indonesian retail sales growth is starting to revive more noticeably, but headwinds are intensifying.

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision, October 2025

• In one line: Expect this to be a temporary pause from the new Governor and Co.

9 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Six charts to highlight why the BoT's surprise October hold is temporary

• The BoT surprised the widespread consensus yesterday by holding the policy rate at 1.50%.
• The export U-turn is here, and the MPC sounds too nonchalant over domestic demand and inflation…
• …We reiterate our 1.00% terminal rate forecast, implying 25bp cuts in December and in Q1.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 October 2025

Philippine sales still sliding, but a few green shoots are emerging
Soft… keeping the door wide open for at least one more BSP cut this quarter

8 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Philippine sales still sagging, but green shoots are emerging

• Sales growth in the Philippines fell to a 10-month low, but the survey data are improving at least…
• …We’ve cut our 2025 and 2026 CPI forecasts to 1.7% and 2.4%; no momentum in food prices.
• Downside risks are mounting to our already below- consensus 2025-to-26 CPI forecasts for Thailand.

7 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor. Q3 could mark the turn in Vietnam's GDP growth; mind overheating risk

• GDP growth in Vietnam held steady in Q3 at a robust 8.2%, but mostly thanks to residual noise…
• …Still, fast loan growth poses upside risk to a likely sharper slowdown from the front-loading payback.
• We’ve raised our 2025 and 2026 full-year GDP growth forecasts to 7.7% and 6.5%, respectively.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 6 October 2025

Vietnamese growth slipped marginally—in reality—in Q3
Don’t put too much weight on the September uptick in Vietnamese sales
A sense of deja vu… Vietnam’s exports to the US steal the show to close Q3
Transport deflation in Vietnam finally comes to an end, for now
CPI expectations in Thailand need a further recalibration down

6 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor RBI surveys say "what 50% tariff?"... momentum waning regardless

• The RBI’s latest IOS shows that exporters, for now, remain largely unfazed by Trump’s 50% tariff…
• …Nevertheless, the actual industry assessment for Q3 shows further softening in output and orders.
• It’s early doors, but surveys show no aggregate price cuts in the pipeline in the wake of GST 2.0.

3 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Surprise leap in Indonesia's surplus in August isn't worth celebrating

• Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
• …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
• Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2025

The RBI’s pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table
A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump in ASEAN manufacturing
Ignore the August jump in Indonesia's surplus; import demand is crashing
Food inflation is firming up fast in Indonesia, but core disinflation is a strong anchor

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, July

• In one line: A collapse long in the making; still some way to go before growth falls back down to earth.

2 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Still a matter of when, not if, the RBI will cut again; we look for December

• The RBI stayed on hold yesterday, but two members called for more dovish implied forward guidance…
• …Its latest GDP forecasts reveal no real faith in the stimulative impact of GST 2.0; we concur.
• Bank on ASEAN’s robust September PMI at your own risk, as underlying it is a very skewed picture.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 30 September 2025

Real import demand in the Philippines has had a bleak Q3, so far

1 October 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor India's IP Q3-to-date: more robust than Q2, but with a few caveats

• Ignore the miss in Indian IP in August; the recent stasis is breaking, and the fixed capex signal is solid.
• Retail sales growth in Thailand crashed back down to earth in July, but expect much more softness…
• …Consumption growth is seeing some stability alongside tourist arrivals; local demand is still weak.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, August

• In one line: A consumer-led dip, but durables growth is probably bottoming-out.

25 September 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai front-running to the US is over, only pain and downside risks ahead

• Thai customs export growth missed expectations in August, as the surge in US shipments finally turned.
• Short-term leading indicators point to much more downside ahead, while THB strength will only hurt.
• The one consolation is that the supply-side reaction to falling exports is unlikely to be as painful.