Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 December 2024

Continued food disinflation in Thailand mutes the headline’s November uptick

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

3 December 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor ASEAN manufacturing largely losing steam in the run-up to 2025

  • The manufacturing PMI for ASEAN ticked up to 50.8 in November, but its downtrend remains intact.
  • More softness is in store heading into 2025; activity is uneven, and forward-looking gauges are falling.
  • Indonesian inflation fell further in November to a 40-month low, opening the door more to rate cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 2 December 2024

A narrow and likely short-lived uptick in ASEAN’s PMI for November
Inflation moves closer to the lower bound of BI’s target range; S/T stability coming

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core Industries, India, October

  • In one line: A modest acceleration, and one that was flattered by Diwali calendar effects.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, September

  • In one line: The boost from ‘other’ sales fades, again; no noticeable immediate lift from the first cash-handout.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

29 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's October retail sales drop appears temporary

  • Retail sales in Taiwan unexpectedly fell by 0.5% year-over-year in October…
  • …The Ministry of Economic Affairs attributes this to Typhoon Kong-rey; we see more to the story.
  • We are optimistic that sales will bounce back inNovember, as one-off headwinds reverse.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 December 2024 Emerging Asia India's disastrous Q3 GDP print has been long in the making

  • GDP growth in India plunged to 5.4%, from 6.7% in Q2, vindicating our bottom- of-the-range fore cast…
  • …The further unwinding of the discrepancies lift was mainly to blame, but private demand softened too.
  • This print will be a huge shock to the RBI’s rose-tinted GDP fore casts; door’s now open to a rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

November 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

EM ASIA IS PARTICULARLY EXPOSED TO ‘TRUMP 2.0’

  • …INDONESIA AND THE PHILIPPINES DISAPPOINT IN Q3

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 26 November 2024

Thai exports jump to a fresh high on the back of an ASEAN bump

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Beware of the pitfalls and holes in Thailand's export recovery

  • Thailand’s customs trade balance has been deteriorating modestly for a few months…
  • …Masking a now-complete recovery in nominal exports from their painful 2022 slump.
  • No room for complacency, as leading indicators remain weak and the supply side is still sleeping.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 22 November 2024

Steady slide in India’s PMIs continues, despite the November pop in services

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 November 2024 Emerging Asia India's PMIs are still sliding; ignore the employment 'surge'

  • The general downtrend in India’s PMIs is still very much in play, de spite the November services pop.
  • Hiring is supposedly going gangbusters, based on the PMI, but the hard data still tell a different story.
  • Indonesia is pushing ahead with a VAT hike to 12% in January; the last rise in 2022 is uninformative.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over

  • Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts for a second straight month, keeping the BI rate at 6.00%.
  • Governor Warjiyo cited concerns over the rupiah, in view of less-aggressive Fed cuts under Trump 2.0. 
  • We still see the BI rate falling to a terminal level of 4.75% by end-2025, with risks to the downside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 18 November 2024

Broad-based investment comeback drives Thailand’s market-beating Q3 GDP print

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 15 November 2024

An overdue bounce in demand from India moves Indonesia’s export recovery forward

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

18 November 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indonesia's smaller Oct. surplus hides still-robust export recovery

  • The collapse in Indonesia’s trade surplus in October was a let-down, but it is stable, seasonality aside…
  • …This is thanks to a broad-based export recovery; India is a weak spot, but it rebounded last month.
  • India’s trade deficit ballooned in October, but due mainly to oil imports, not a bump in real demand.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, October

  • In one line: Oil imports are seeing an impressive—but likely temporary—revival.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 14 November 2024

Food prices are still the main headache at the WPI level in India, too

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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