Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)
The nascent improvement in ASEAN manufacturing is far from comprehensive
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Core production growth in India fell to a five-month low in February, due partly to residual seasonality.
- The plunge in refined petroleum products output growth is real though, with more softness likely.
- The bright spots—steel and cement—should soon feel the pinch of a waning public infra drive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame mainly an unsurprising reversal of the January jump in petroleum products.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Retail sales growth in Thailand sank to -1% in January, but volatile ‘other’ sales are to blame.
- The nascent post-stimulus recovery in confidence is wobbling, and could be hit further by the quake…
- …Fundamentally, though, labour productivity is improving, boding well for future wage growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: First red ink since mid-2023, as the inexplicable lift from ‘other’ sales continues to unwind.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Philippine trade takes a breather after a fast start to 2025
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Don’t pay too much heed to the panic over the IDR; the current account fundamentals are sound…
- …Plus, the bad fiscal start could just be a blip and foreign investor s are steadily returning to the fray.
- The big misses in Philippine trade data for February, particularly in imports, aren’t as bad as they seem.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIAN CONSUMPTION ON THE MEND, SLOWLY
- …US TARIFF FRONT-RUNNING SURFACES IN FEB. TRADE DATA
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s flash PMIs for March were mixed, but the key service sector is still seeing falling momentum…
- …Altogether, the PMIs point to GDP growth slowing to mid-4% in Q1; we’re happy to stay downbeat.
- Thai exports continue to defy gravity, and US pre-tariff front-loading is only part of the picture.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s new leadership is once again saying the right things about promoting the private sector…
- …But SOEs have fallen in number; those remaining are bigger, more profitable and more efficient.
- They don’t invest as much as other firms though, strengthening the case for their further diminution.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Keeping its powder dry, but we’re not quite sure why.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia left the BI rate at 5.75% for a second meeting, against our minority rate-cut call.
- We still expect 100bp in total easing this year; the consensus on 2025 inflation remains way too high.
- The equity sell-off will add more urgency to cuts, as it’s deep enough to have real implications for capex.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s deficit consolidated in February to its smallest since mid-2021, as imports tanked…
- …But much of this was due to ongoing corrections in oil and gold imports; exports rebounded too.
- Non-oil and gold merchandise imports, plus imports of services, are still on a firm upward trend.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No need to panic over the nosedive in imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian export growth surprised greatly to the upside in February, leaping to 14.1%…
- …But base effects did more heavy lifting; monthly momentum and commodity support are lacking.
- Indonesia’s exports aren’t seeing any US front- loading, unlike some of its neighbours; that’s good.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Blame mainly softer fuel & power deflation; headline disinflation is just around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Indonesia’s February export pop isn’t so black and white
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Rural consumption alone cannot underpin India’s recovery indefinitely; urban demand is a must…
- …Encouragingly, household balance sheets have come a long way from their 2023 low point.
- Wage growth and formal-sector hiring are finding their feet too, supporting the rise in spending plans.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
