Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)

EM Asia Datanote: Customs Trade, Thailand, May

  • In one line: A not-so-emphatic return to the black, once adjusted for seasonality.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 21 June 2024

A decent end to Q2 for India's sky-high, if questionable, PMIs

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

  • In one line: A non-event; expect more of the same through Q3.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

20 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Solid May for Indonesian exports, but still potholes in the road ahead

  • The 2024 volatility in Indonesian exports continued in May, this time resulting in a hefty bounce-back…
  • …The overall trend is still range-bound though, and China’s uneven recovery continues to pose a risk.
  • We have upgraded our current account forecast, with real import demand deteriorating further.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Trade, India, May

  • In one line: Deficit hit by lagged oil-price effects, which will now unwind.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, May

  • In one line: Upstream core price pressures are now clearly reviving.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

17 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic

  • Food CPI in India will soon tank on base effects, but don’t underestimate the improving monthly story…
  • …Inflation expectations remain unfazed, though more signs are pointing to a U-turn in core inflation.
  • Average inflation should still fall to 4.6% this year, but we have raised our 2025 forecast to 4.5%.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: May CPI & April IP, India

  • In one line: Some green shoots on food inflation; IP appears to be breaking out of its recent stagnation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

13 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Charting the BoT's apparent complacency on GDP growth

  • The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate at 2.50%; dissenting votes for a 25bp cut fell to one, from two.
  • Growth is the area that is most likely to disappoint, relative to the MPC’s rose-tinted expectations…
  • …Its reasons for optimism are short-lived in nature; we still consider two 25bp cuts this year possible. 

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 11 June 2024

Indonesia’s Ramadan demand this year ends with a whimper
Malaysian retail sales growth slows in April, despite friendly base effects
We’ll swallow the Philippines' big April deficit, as imports showed signs of life

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 June 2024

An RBI cut in August now certainly looks off the table
The policy-induced upswing in Thai inflation shouldn’t bother the MPC
Don’t put too much stock into the April leap in Philippine sales

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far

  • Formal dissent in the RBI grew this month, but we’ll now likely have to wait until October for the first cut.
  • The base-effect and policy-driven upswing in Thai CPI should be ignored by the MPC this week.
  • Taiwanese export growth disappointed in May, but not enough to derail the overall recovery.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

6 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Singaporeans switch to spending abroad, while still saving more

  • Retail sales growth in Singapore disappointed hugely in April, falling to a new post-pandemic low...
  • …We suspect that a shift to overseas spending was the main culprit, as income growth still looks strong.
  • The risk of CPI re-breaching the BSP’s target range continues to wane, on fading non-core pressures.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 June 2024

ASEAN’s main exporters are finally staging a revival… slowly

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 June 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor So much for the absurdly high expectations for Modi 3.0

  • The BJP’s disappointing result in the 2024 election means the risk of coalition politics in India is back.
  • The PMI for ASEAN rebounded well in May, thanks to the fragile recovery of the region’s key exporters.
  • Indonesia’s softer-than-expected May CPI bolsters our dovish 2024 view on rates and inflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

May 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

TAIWAN’S PUNCHY Q1 GDP IS AS GOOD AS IT’LL GET

  • …ELECTION TAILWINDS IN INDONESIA’S Q1 ARE IRREPLICABLE

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Q1 GDP and April Core Production, India

  • In one line: Exports—alone—steal the show in Q1, papering over a continued slowdown in domestic demand.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters
Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: Emerging Asia Documents

Emerging Asia Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,