Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 10 October 2024

Philippine exports are finally staging a real comeback at the margin

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 October 2024

No cut, but the sea change in RBI policy is here
Indonesian retail sales growth recovers to a five-month high

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

10 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor No cut--yet--but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP

  • The RBI held its repo rate at 6.50% yesterday, but finally shifted its stance to “neutral”.
  • Its still-optimistic GDP outlook implies it will be easy to justify a December cut, when Q3 growth falls flat.
  • The outlook for food inflation—both short- and long-term—is improving, despite isolated shocks.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 October 2024

The ongoing run of positive Philippine sales growth is fragile

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

9 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Positive spell in Philippine sales growth very fragile

  • Philippine sales growth stayed positive in August, but support from remittances will soon U-turn…
  • …Consumer confidence remains lacklustre, and the drawdown on already-low savings is no silver bullet.
  • Below-target Thai CPI continues to make the case for an imminent rate cut; rising THB risks deflation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

8 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnam's Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi

  • GDP growth in Vietnam surged to a two-year high in Q3, at 7.4%, handily outstripping expectations…
  • …The quarterly profile shows only a trivial loss of steam, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi.
  • The critical export sector is still going strong, though FDI inflows now appear to be peaking.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 October 2024

Base effects from late-2023 utility cuts lead modest headline uptick in Thai inflation

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

7 October 2024 Emerging Asia A bright green light for a second straight 25bp BSP cut this month

  • Philippine inflation dived below the BSP’s range in September, almost ensuring a 25bp cut next week…
  • …Persistent under-capacity in heavy industry remains a fundamentally disinflationary force.
  • Positive price effects and recovering vehicle sales continue to mask a slump in Singaporean retail.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 October 2024

Below-target range inflation effectively guarantees another BSP cut this month

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 October 2024

Export-oriented manufacturers in ASEAN hit a speed-bump at the end of Q3
Much more food disinflation ahead in Indonesia

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Typhoon Yagi's presence is felt in ASEAN's soft September PMI

  • ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, as bad weather hit big exporters.
  • The downward surprise in Indonesia’s September CPI has more legs than the upward core surprise.
  • Indian core IP growth has plunged into the red for the first time since early 2021; all eyes on the RBI.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

1 October 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor 'Strength' in Thai retail an illusion; conditions are deteriorating

  • Thai retail sales growth appears strong, in double digits, but the devil is in the details…
  • …Private consumption growth—a more credible measure—remained weak and in the red in August.
  • Cyclically, consumer confidence is fading and underlying job-market trends are deteriorating.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: Core IP, India, August

  • In one line: A 3.5-year low; base effects were the main culprit, but momentum is vanishing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

30 September 2024 Emerging Asia Thailand's smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth

  • The potential lift from Thailand’s initial cash relief will still be limited by deteriorating balance sheets.
  • Big-bang restart of the BSP’s RRR cuts likely to be followed by smaller but more frequent reductions.
  • The post-pandemic rise in India’s LPFR, which has flattered the unemployment rate, has peaked.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

September 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

BI SPRINGS A SEP. SURPRISE; 50BP MORE CUTS IN Q4

  • …INDIA’S GDP GROWTH SLOWDOWN IS FAR FROM OVER

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

26 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwanese retail sales growth likely heading towards a better Q3 finish

  • Taiwanese consumer demand remains fragile, but the weak August sales print is not representative...
  • …As volatile vehicle sales growth depressed the headline; this is likely to rebound in September.
  • Thai exports stayed robust in August, but leading indicators are grim and THB strength is a threat.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

24 September 2024 Emerging Asia Monitor India's sliding PMIs--on both fronts--point to just 5% Q3 growth

  • India’s PMIs are down concurrently year-over-year for the first time in a while, signalling 5% growth.
  • Malaysian food inflation is likely to increase, but headline disinflation overall is still on track.
  • Singapore’s core inflation rise is no cause for worry; domestic services inflation momentum is slowing.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 23 September 2024

The moderation in India’s PMIs continues, as they end Q3 on a soft note
Food disinflation pushed down Malaysian inflation in August
Singaporean headline inflation falls in August, despite a pick-up in core

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

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