15 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Malaysian retail sales still struggling to return to pre-pandemic levels

• Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes  registered no month-to-month increase in May.
• Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
• Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the  recent rate cut could help Q3

EM Asia Datanote: WPI, India, June

• In one line: Modest, on-and-off deflation looks set to be the theme for H2.

14 July 2025 Emerging Asia Not all of EM Asia is exposed to H2 correction in front-loaded exports

• Front-loaded exports from EM Asia will start to correct in H2, even if US “reciprocal” tariffs soften.
• A few economies are much less exposed, though; we note a couple of sector-specific upside risks.
• Longer term, we maintain that EM Asia exports will have a brighter future, supporting their markets.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 9 July 2025

Indonesian sales remain tepid, at best… stimulus ‘pop’ looking small

10 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor BNM more worried about GDP growth than we expected

• The BNM made its first rate cut in five years, reducing the overnight policy rate to 2.75% from 3.00%.
• The Bank is clearly prioritising weak consumption and exports above the risk of re-sparking inflation.
• Indonesian retail sales remain subpar in spite of the May bounce; no early signs of a stimulus boost.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 8 July 2025

Philippine sales are now effectively flat-lining

9 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Taiwan's export numbers should cease to surprise, but they still do

• Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
• This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
• Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.

8 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Vietnamese growth to come off the boil in H2 if GDP data turn realistic

• GDP growth in Vietnam jumped to 8.0% in Q2 from 7.1% in Q1, comfortably outstripping all forecasts…
• …But brisk export front-loading to the US will unwind shortly, especially with a ‘deal’ now in place.
• We have raised our 2025 GDP forecast to 6.9%, implying an H2 slowdown to an average of 6.4%.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 7 July 2025

A few more months of modest Thai deflation on the cards

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 4 July 2025

Philippine inflation still comfortably below the BSP’s range

7 July 2025 Emerging Asia Thai household debt finally starting to shrink; this'll be long and painful

• Thai household debt has shrunk for the first time in over 20 years, but its ratio to GDP is still very high…
• …Consumer NPLs resumed their rise in Q1 after a Q4 stall; bad initial news for “You Fight, We Help”.
• Philippine inflation inched up in June; the low-CPI environment is yet to lift confidence meaningfully.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 1 July 2025

Post-export-front-loading clouds for ASEAN continue to darken
Indonesian export growth probably will buckle again in Q3
Expect a further rise in Indonesian food inflation in the July report

2 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Tariff pause has done ASEAN no favours; an extension won't either

• ASEAN’s manufacturing PMI deteriorated further in June, and all signs point to more near-term falls.
• Indonesian export growth is in for a rockier H2, in spite of evidence of stabilising demand from China.
• Consumer sectors were to blame for India’s poor May IP; that’s a double whammy for the economy.

EM Asia Datanote: Industrial Production, India, May

• In one line: Consumer-facing industries are buckling.

EM Asia Datanote: Retail Sales, Thailand, April

• In one line: Headline absurdity continues.

1 July 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Thai consumption remains sluggish, with large headwinds intensifying

• Retail sales growth in Thailand is still at an absurdly-high double-digit rate; ignoring the rosy headlines…
• …The monthly consumption index remains weak, and fading confidence points to more downside.
• Consumption looks set to continue rising, though, as wages recover alongside productivity.

PANTHEON EM ASIA DATA WRAP 27 June 2025

A bump in the road for the uptrend in real Philippine import demand

30 June 2025 Emerging Asia Monitor Hoping we're not jinxing it...we rescind our call for SBV cuts in 2025

• We no longer expect the SBV to restart cuts, with the worst-case tariff scenario looking less likely…
• …Plus, credit growth is already soaring and the authorities won’t want to risk rocking the VND further.
• Philippine household savings recovered more substantially in 2024, but the Covid hole remains huge.

June 2025- Emerging Asia Chartbook

THE RBI—RIGHTLY—ISN’T BUYING THIS ‘RECOVERY’

• …CRACKS SHOWING IN THE EXPORT FRONT-LOADING STORY

EM Asia Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Pausing, for now.