- We look for a massive downward surprise in India’s December CPI, as onion prices have collapsed.
- Unofficial core inflation likely softened further too, falling below 4% for the first time since end-2019.
- Indonesian retail sales growth slowed unexpectedly in November; sub-zero prints are around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
The fledgling U-turn in Philippine sales is already losing steam
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s 7.3% advance estimate for 2023/24 GDP growth implies a consensus-beating Q4 and Q1...
- ...But the PMIs already point to a big expectations miss in Q4; at least core price pressures are fading.
- Base effects and vehicle sales play starring roles in Singapore’s retail sales in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
India’s PMIs for Q4, overall, point to sub-6% GDP growth
Singaporean consumer demand looks subdued, despite the November jump in sales growth
Deflation in Thailand deepens, but December should be the low
Philippine inflation returns to the target range, finally
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Indonesian inflation should fall below BI’s new 2.5% target in Q1, with food base effects turning.
- Thai deflation surprisingly deepened in December, but this should be the low, as food will soon U-turn.
- Target-range inflation in the Philippines is finally here, making a mockery of the BSP’s hawkishness.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Vietnam’s scorching Q4 GDP print is no ‘mission accomplished’; the result is somewhat misleading.
- Sequential momentum appears to have peaked in Q3, and the Q4 jump in industry looks fragile.
- The second half of 2023 benefited hugely from the initial—and likely unrepeatable—bounce in exports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Jump in Singaporean GDP growth in Q4 was powered by a rebound in manufacturing
ASEAN entered 2024 with negative momentum
The H2 rise in Indonesian food inflation is finally over
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Q4 GDP growth in Singapore surprised to the upside, jumping to 2.8%, from 1.0% in Q3...
- ...Boosted by a rebound in the manufacturing sector and robust construction activity.
- We will look to upgrade our 2024 forecast of 1.7% if external demand continues to hold up in Q1.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- India’s tight job market poses a risk to our downbeat 2024 outlook, but the devil is in the details.
- Vietnam’s economy will grow the most this year, assuming the surge in NPLs doesn’t get in the way.
- Disruption to key global shipping routes risks hitting the nascent export recovery in developed ASEAN.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
INDIA’S ROSY GDP HEADLINES REMAIN A FARCE
- ...BOT FINALLY PAUSES, WHILE BSP’S HEAD IS M.I.A.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A new post-pandemic low, but risks to the outlook from imported inflation increase.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Bank Indonesia’s rebranded benchmark rate—the BI rate —was held at 6.00%, as universally expected.
- BI understandably urged caution on food inflation, but base effects here will soon give a helping hand.
- With the core still subdued, the headline should fall below BI’s new target in Q2, paving the way for cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Malaysian export growth fell in November, but this was expected, due to unfriendly base effects…
- … And it should not be extrapolated as a sign of slowing export growth momentum.
- Headline growth in December will likely increase on the back of a turnaround in electronics exports.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean export growth finally returned to the black in November after 13 months…
- …But the recovery is likely to be gradual, as weak demand weighs on the pace of inventory clearance.
- The slow march in electronics exports will likely show more strongly next year.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Pharmaceuticals boost Singaporean exports in November
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The slump in Indonesian export growth eased more in November, with the commodities hit still fading…
- …This dynamic is helping imports, too, masking the grow th slowdown in consumer and capital goods.
- The crash in Philippine exports in October isn’t as bad as it looks, while the import jump is deceptive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: We told you not to panic about October’s record deficit; you’re welcome.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
