Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)
- Taiwan is experiencing a boom in demand for its electronics, namely semiconductors and AI servers.
- These are key components in the large data centres being built by Big Tech firms in the AI arms race.
- Taiwanese exports are likely to stay strong if Big Tech continues with its capex plans.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Taiwanese GDP growth rose to 8.0% in Q2, from 5.5%, driven by extremely strong exports…
- …Other components were basically non-existent; investment suffered a sharp slowdown.
- Exports may not be driven purely by front-loading, as genuine demand exists for chips, thanks to AI.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales were worse than we expected in June, as they declined by 2.9% year-over-year.
- This spells trouble for consumption in next week’s Q2 GDP; overall growth should still come in strong.
- Malaysian inflation fell yet again, to 1.1%, while the government has announced more fuel subsidies.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Malaysia’s retail sales are still weak; sales volumes registered no month-to-month increase in May.
- Real wage growth has been stagnant since the pandemic, weighing on disposable incomes.
- Q2 GDP will get no lift from consumption, but the recent rate cut could help Q3
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Another month of exports above 30% in Taiwan, as they fail to moderate despite our expectation.
- This will be good news for Q2 GDP year-over-year, which is highly correlated with exports.
- Food and housing costs are finally down consistently, helping to keep inflation below 2%.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s retail sales fell for a second straight month, because of a slump in vehicle sales...
- ...Reports suggest consumers are holding off purchases, hoping for a reduction in import tariffs.
- Malaysian inflation fell to its lowest in 51 months, due to a decline in services inflation.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s exports defied expectations, rising by 30% year-over-year in April; front-loading continues...
- ...It’s unclear when this will stop, but a surge in the value of the T WD is a new headwind.
- Inflation moderated to 2.0% in April, from 2.3% in March, but it’s still too soon to celebrate.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Our bullish forecast for Taiwan’s GDP paid off for Q1, as growth jumped to 5.4% year-over-year.
- Exports surged 20%, driven by extreme front- loading ahead of tariffs set on “Liberation Day”.
- We expect this momentum to slow, as the front-loading inevitably fades in the months ahead.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
- Taiwan’s March retail sales rose by 0.4% year-over-year, though our seasonal adjustment erases this…
- …We see worrying signs in motor vehicle, textiles, and fuel sales, the three largest components.
- This all points to a weak Q1 private consumption print, ahead of next Wednesday’s GDP release.
Meekita Gupta (Asia Economost)Emerging Asia
