Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
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BUILDING FISCAL RISKS THE MAIN CHALLENGE...
- …TO OUR FORECAST FOR THE MPC TO HOLD BANK RATE
- In one line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
In on line: At 0.2% for third straight month.
- In one line: Manufacturing activity to remain weak in the second half of the year.
- In one line: House prices jump in September but we look for a subdued second half of the year.
Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
- In one line: Manufacturing is going nowhere fast.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- In one line: Activity loses momentum in August due mainly to weak mining.
- The impact of AI on labor demand so far looks small, even for the most at-risk occupations.
- The payroll slowdown this year has far more to do with trade and immigration policies.
- Auto sales are set to weaken, as an EV tax credit expires and tariffs start to push up prices.
- Split in BanRep’s Board highlights tension between resilient domestic demand and stubborn inflation.
- Loss of IMF credit line underscores fiscal fragility, fuelling market concerns over Colombia’s credibility.
- Minimum wage talks risk entrenching inflation, limiting BanRep’s scope for near-term easing.
- Indonesia’s trade surplus surprised massively to the upside in August, but largely on seasonal factors…
- …Underlying two-way trade growth continues to ebb; exports are fighting a handful of headwinds.
- Inflation rose above BI’s 2.5% target for the first time in over a year, but a Q4 rate cut is still on the table.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
- Bank of England revises data without explanation, shaking confidence in their numbers.
- Revised DMP data show job falls easing, spare capacity stable and price pressures stubborn.
- Underlying disinflation has ceased according to the DMP so the MPC will have to stay cautious.
In on line: Rebounding, but tariff-sensitive manufacturing is weakening.
- In one line: Food inflation is firming up fast, but core disinflation is a strong anchor.
- In one line: Ignore the jump in the surplus; import demand is crashing.
- In one line: A sturdy—but narrow—end-Q3 bump.
- In one line: Pause continues, but further easing is still very much on the table.
