- The gilt market continues to function well, but yields have been volatile.
- The gilt curve has steepened as markets reprice for more interest rate cuts from the MPC.
- Longer-dated gilts have sold off and remain vulnerable to policy developments.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In LatAm, Mexico is by far the most exposed to US tariffs and global economic slowdown risk.
- Commodity-price declines and Chinese weakness add fresh headwinds to regional export growth.
- Currency volatility, weaker remittances and soft capex will drag, but rate cuts offer relief.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Argentina has begun to dismantle the ‘cepo’, marking an historic shift towards currency normalisation.
- The FX liberalisation narrows gaps, boosts confidence and marks a break from past interventionism.
- Short-term inflation risks prevail, but fiscal and monetary tightening are restoring macro discipline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- President Xi concluded his tour of South-East Asian countries to push economic co-operation.
- China is leveraging on its large market in the face of worries over second-order retaliatory measures.
- China has appointed trade veteran Li as its new chief negotiator, signalling a readiness to talk.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Weaker-than-expected March inflation makes a May interest rate cut a racing certainty.
- Solid pre-tariff growth means we look for only three more 25bp Bank Rate cuts this year…
- …But downside risks allow earlier moves; we expect back-to-back ‘insurance’ cuts in May and June.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The Department of Government Efficiency will achieve only a fraction of its spending cut targets…
- …So reduced federal spending looks set to be only a small headwind for the economy.
- The DOGE federal job cuts are also on course to have only a minor impact on the overall labor market.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
- Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
- But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
China’s Q1 GDP growth was boosted by demand stimulus and export front-loading pre-tariff turmoil
Duncan WrigleyChina+
A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Solid jobs and accelerating wages will keep the MPC cautious heading into the trade war.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP soars in February but the MPC will look through the pre-Tariff data.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Fracturing global trade will begin to weigh on the trade balance in the coming months.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
