In one line: Resilient to the latest rise in US tariffs, despite hit to foreign orders.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Only little signs of a hit from higher US tariffs.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
India’s flash PMIs for August shrug off Trump’s 50% tariff threat
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: House prices are recovering quickly from the stamp duty hike and will continue to rise in H2.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Another hawkish blow to the MPC means no more cuts this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line: A reassuring and much-needed turn in overall momentum and, especially, in electricity production.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The S&P Global PMI points to underlying growth returning to the rapid pace seen in 2024.
- That seems unlikely to us, given the many headwinds to growth, mostly due to tariffs.
- We doubt the jump in services inflation suggested by the PMI will materialize either.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- India’s PMIs continue to shrug off the tariff noise— even the 50% threat—with the August data punchy…
- …Partial Q3 PMIs point to a continuation of near-7% GDP growth, but watch the slump in future output.
- Our final forecast for next week’s Q2 GDP report is 7%, implying only a minor cooling from 7.4% in Q1.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Higher tariffs hurt Japan’s car and steel exporters in July, with export values seeing precipitous declines.
- Car export prices to the US are still falling in USD terms, but more slowly. Exporters are absorbing costs.
- Japan’s flash composite PMI has slid for three straight months but points to stronger domestic demand in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The PMIs suggest higher US tariffs are weighing on export orders, as we expected…
- ...But the EZ economy is still resilient; the composite PMI edged up to a 15-month high in August.
- Price pressures rose again, implying the risk to our call for an ECB rate cut in September is for no cut.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI beat expectations and rose to a 12-month high in August.
- August’s flash PMI is consistent with quarter-to-quarter growth of 0.3% in Q3.
- Sticky inflation and strong growth mean the MPC will need to stay on hold for the rest of 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Acting now, while the space to do so comfortably remains available.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: China's LPRs on hold, despite July's weakening demand data
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: Inflation will rise to year-end, but there’s still chance of an ECB rate cut in September.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
