Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- GDPNow’s forecast for 4.3% growth in Q2 is based on too little data to take it seriously.
- We look for growth of 1½%, given the weak underlying trend in consumption and non-tech capex.
- The FOMC is more worried about inflation expectations, but they have no bite in a weak labor market.
- Retail sales remain resilient in Mexico, though discretionary demand looks uneven and selective.
- Banxico’s latest communication strongly suggests the easing cycle has now ended.
- Restrictive real rates likely will continue to curb credit and discretionary spending in H2.
- Japan’s finance minister said the government would aim to limit new bond issuance for the extra budget.
- The BoJ will likely look past slowing inflation in April, given the prospect of rising imported energy costs.
- Renewed currency weakness is likely to be the final straw, pushing the BoJ to a rate hike in June.
- The disinflation from last year’s rally in EURUSD is almost over, but China is still exporting deflation.
- EURUSD would need to rally to 1.25-to-1.30 to offer the ECB any disinflationary help; that looks unlikely.
- Our models signal modest upside risk to EURUSD, but we think 1.17 is a reasonable baseline for now.
- Weak employment data and a sharp drop in the PMI challenge our view that growth was holding up.
- But the PMI over-reacts to uncertainty, the job fall will be revised away, and consumers’ confidence held up.
- Oil prices and Mr. Burnham accepting fiscal rules explain gilt-yield falls; economic data had little effect.
Indian manufacturing still struggling; pop in prices fading
On hold for now, but the likelihood of easing further ahead in underrated.
- In one line: Still losing momentum at the margin.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- In one line: Huge—defensive—hike.
- Manufacturing firms appear to be bringing forward orders to get ahead of supply chain disruptions…
- …That will lift industrial activity, but only in the short term; upward pressure on goods prices is building.
- The outlook for homebuilding remains dim; we expect real residential investment to fall in 2026.
- Consumption and fiscal support continue to cushion activity in Brazil, despite high interest rates
- Investment and confidence indicators point to softer domestic demand over the next three-to-six months.
- Persistent inflation pressures will likely keep the COPOM cautious about further easing.
- EZ PMIs sank further in May, adding to the evidence that the economy is stuck in a stagflationary hole.
- The ECB will focus on soaring input and output price indices, but the PMIs are warning not to over-tighten.
- Relative weakness in French PMIs likely reflects the lack of fiscal space to lean against soaring inflation.
- Increased political uncertainty and high energy costs weighed on business sentiment in May.
- But the PMI overreacts to political noise, and price pressures remain strong.
- We stick to our July rate-hike forecast, but it’s a much closer call as downside risks to growth rise.
- In one line: On hold despite April slowdown
In one line: Policy rate cut only likely after several months of flagging growth
Brace for more eye-wateringly strong export growth in Malaysia.
REAL INCOMES WILL DROP THIS SUMMER...
- ...CORE INFLATION WILL COOL IN Q4, ENABLING RATE CUTS
No end in sight for the housing slump.
- Online searches for furniture and household goods are surging, and Redbook’s data look red-hot...
- ...But Bloomberg’s Second Measure data—a better guide to spending—point to an emerging slowdown.
- …That subdued steer is echoed by falling airline pas- senger numbers and weak consumer confidence.
