Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
- In one line: Jobs market passes the worst as prices and wages prove persistent.
- In one line: Strengthening domestic spending can cushion the tariff blow.
- In one line: The Construction sector will continue to recover as planning reforms and Government spending boost sentiment.
In one line: Up despite being held back by German weakness.
In one line: Solid but unlikely to last.
In one line: Not enough to salvage Q1, but the 3m/3m trend is turning up.
In one line: Growth and the surveys were picking up, before Mr. Trump’s tariff hammer.
A brief spell of policy-induced deflation is around the corner in Thailand
Very soft, but March should be the low for Philippine inflation this year
THE RUSH TO BEAT STAMP-DUTY CHANGES PEAKS...
- ...BUT HOUSE PRICES SHOULD STILL RISE BY 4% IN 2025
Weak, but far from definitive.
- The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
- Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
- The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.
- Mr. Trump’s tariff uncertainty will continue to weigh on LatAm’s prospects, despite it not being hit too hard.
- Mexico is aiming for fiscal discipline, but rising debt and optimistic forecasts threaten its credibility, again.
- Structural reforms, a Pemex overhaul and looking beyond the US are key to stabilising its debt outlook.
- The US ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs have led to cuts of 0.1-to-0.7pp to several of our 2025 GDP forecasts…
- …Vietnam’s outperformance has shrunk materially; India won’t enjoy as much of an import-drop offset.
- We now see the SBV restarting cuts to the tune of 50bp, and have added a fourth cut to our RBI view.
- China’s all-out response on Friday to US tariff hikes is likely intended to get US-China talks going soon.
- We have cut our 2025 Japan GDP forecast by 0.2pp to 0.8%, due to the US tariff hikes announced last week.
- The BoJ is even more likely to hold fast on May 1, waiting for clarity, as Japan presses for lower tariffs.
- The markets’ verdict is clear; trade uncertainty is a disinflationary shock, but we’re not convinced.
- We now think the ECB will cut its policy rate later this month, by 25bp, for a terminal rate of 2.25%.
- A high export ratio for EZ industry means higher US tariffs are a risk; construction is looking better.
- The initial response to US tariffs suggests the barriers are more disinflationary for the UK than most.
- Markets are understandably pricing downside growth tail-risks and the UK avoiding retaliation, for now.
- But we continue to think this tariff fandango will eventually prove to be a stagflationary shock.
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
