In one line: Investor sentiment continues to rise.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US - Expect payback for May’s below-trend rise in the CPI over the summer
- EUROZONE - Jumbo cut from SNB incoming; EURUSD rally should peter out
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, but more open to a cut in August
- CHINA+ -China’s productivity opportunity can cushion demographic pressure
- EM ASIA - Malaysian retail sales remain weak, but high debt is no major worry
- LATAM - Mexico’s inflation rises again in May; Banxico to ease cautiously
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Sticky core inflation and electricity-price risks will likely keep BCCh cautious, despite progress on disinflation.
- Gradual CLP appreciation and subdued domestic demand will allow further rate cuts in Q3.
- Colombia’s MTFF signals rising risks amid political urgency; fiscal relief today, higher debt tomorrow.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Singapore’s NODX collapsed into the red in May; momentum was fading, front-running has peaked.
- The extent of the resurgence in oil prices, for now, remains no threat to India’s low-inflation climate…
- …Trade data suggest stockpiling when oil prices were falling, but this activity eased markedly in May.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoJ left policy rates unchanged in June, while scaling back its tapering of bond-buying next year…
- …Likely due to bond-market volatility, the stalemate in trade negotiations and tensions in the Middle East.
- We expect the Bank to continue pausing its rate-hiking cycle in the near term as Japan’s economy weakens.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- Inflation in the EZ will settle at 2.0% over the summer, with the core also hitting 2% by August…
- …This should be enough for a final 25bp ECB rate cut in September, to 1.75%, setting up hikes next year.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts for 2026, but we’re still well above the ECB’s June projections.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Official house price inflation will slow in April as stamp-duty disruption feeds through.
- The slowdown will be short-lived, with forward-looking activity indicators improving in May.
- We retain our call for house prices to rise 4.5% year-over-year in 2025.
Elliott Laidman Doak (Senior UK Economist)UK
- In one line: Led by an overdue correction in oil imports.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: No material change—yet—to the outlook for continued fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
China's investment and industrial output data point to slowing growth, despite the bright retail sales reading
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- In one line: Employment growth eases according to the REC, but the worst of the jobs slowdown appears over.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- In one line:GDP falls in April but it will rebound as tax-hike-induced effects fade.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: Tariff-front running boost to industry and trade fading in early Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Energy and services pull headline down.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stable, in line with advance release.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
March pop in Indonesian sales evaporates completely, as expected
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
More to the uptick in claims than residual seasonality.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The median FOMC member this week probably will envisage easing by just 25bp this year...
- ...But the case for expecting more easing remains robust; signs of labor market weakness are growing.
- The $10pb rise in oil prices will lift the CPI by 0.2%, likely dulling Mr. Trump’s appetite for more tariffs.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
