Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
An undoubtedly hot start to the year for two-way trade in Thailand
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
- In one line: Retail sales ended 2025 on a firm footing.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
In one line: Consistent with a modest recovery.
In one line: Consistent with a modest recovery.
In one line: A modest rebound, but GDP growth is doing better than implied by the PMIs.
In one line: A modest rebound, but GDP growth is doing better than implied by the PMIs.
In one line: Japan's cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
In one line: Flash PMIs lifted by tech sector and landslide election victory
In one line: Cooling consumer inflation justifies BoJ taking time on rate hike
- Headline GDP growth in Q4 was depressed by the federal shutdown; underlying growth was robust.
- Consumers, however, will slow down this year and non-AI capex will remain weak.
- The effective tariff rate will be slightly lower under the new tariffs, but the inflation outlook is little changed.
- Consumption and fiscal expansion are driving activity in Colombia, while capex remains subdued.
- Imports surged ahead of weak exports, widening external deficits and exposing structural issues.
- Election uncertainty and wage shocks hinder monetary policy, prolonging tight financial conditions.
- Taiwan’s trade deal with the US has led to some strange upgrades to 2026 GDP among analysts...
- …We think the trade deal will make little difference; key AI exports were never constrained.
- Traditional industries would be unable to cushion the blow if AI demand were to suffer a pull-back.
- We think the market has got it wrong in expecting a BoJ policy rate hike in April; Q4 is more likely.
- Headline inflation is likely to fall, while PM Takaichi will probably prove more fiscally pragmatic than feared.
- A case is emerging for a more positive view on Japan’s outlook, with the budget as the first test.
- Eurozone PMIs still support the idea of a modest cyclical upturn in the economy in early 2026.
- Strength in German PMIs is key for the near-term outlook in the Eurozone; so far so good.
- PMI output prices retreat a tad in February but remain inconsistent with further ECB easing.
- Unemployment hit a five-year high in December, meaning the MPC will cut Bank Rate in March.
- But the LFS data remain unreliable, while other indicators suggest a stabilising labour market.
- Strong retail sales and a jump in the PMI leave GDP on track to rise by 0.3% quarter-to-quarter in Q1.
