- In one line:Strong GDP growth in H1 illustrates a high neutral rate.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: lacklustre broad credit growth, excluding government bonds
Duncan WrigleyChina+
In one line: China's weakening investment and retail sales data raise worries for H2 demand outlook
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Price pressures are building, but July's data overstate the intensity.
Samuel TombsUS
In one line: Q2 slowdown confirmed; industry partly to blame.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Growth in consumers’ real spending has stabilized following in sharp slowdown in H1 2025...
- ...But the labor market is set to remain weak, and most of the uplift to prices from tariffs lies ahead.
- We think spending will grow only at a meager 1-to-1½% pace in second half of this year.
Samuel TombsUS
- EM Asia's contribution to world growth continues to rise, thanks in no small part to its demographics…
- …Working-age populations won’t peak for another two decades, but chinks in the armour are emerging.
- We expect a further softening in Thai GDP growth in Q2, to 2.7%; look for a much smaller q/q trade lift.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s July activity data point to a worrying slowdown in domestic demand, notably investment.
- Industrial and services output maintained growth, however, above the 5% target for official GDP growth.
- More targeted stimulus will be needed in the coming months, especially if and when export growth sinks.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- EZ PPI inflation, ex-services, is stabilising just below 1%, but divergence among sectors is high.
- The trend in global energy prices points to continued deflation in EZ energy producer prices…
- …But food producer price inflation is sticky, signalling upside risk to consumer prices in this category.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Above-consensus payrolls and GDP growth show the job market is recovering and growth is holding firm.
- The MPC faces rebounding growth, a stabilising job market and inflation miles above target.
- We expect CPI inflation for July to come in fractionally below the MPC’s forecast at 3.7%.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China PMI signals weakening manufacturing momentum at the start of H2; policy support likely ahead
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China keeps LPR unchanged, further easing expected in the second half of 2025
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: Korea’s early export data remains sturdy on WDA basis amid US trade uncertainty
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)Global
In one line: China’s FX reserves dip on stronger dollar and bond loses in July.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: China’s monthly export momentum fades in July; pharma shipments surged while rare-earth exports rebound.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line : Japan’s nominal wage growth remains sturdy amid trade headwinds, but real wages stay deeply negative.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
In one line: BoJ stands pat today, nudges up its inflation forecast; Ueda dovish at presser
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
