Pantheon Publications
Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Duncan Wrigley
China's exports have bottomed out but are set for a weak recovery
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- November trade data show Chine se exports have flattened out in recent months.
- Key commodity import volumes continue to grow, except crude oil, which abruptly fell in November.
- Foreign reserves rose sharply in November, thanks to valuation effects and a larger trade surplus.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s services PMIs diverged in November, but this is probably a blip in a cooling trend this year.
- The graduate jobs market is likely still weak, if slightly better than last year.
- Consumer confidence has waned since the initial reopening surge in Q1.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Tokyo core inflation excluding fresh food is nearing the BoJ target rate
Japan's services PMI indicates slowing growth
China’s Caixin services PMI ticked up
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Tokyo consumer inflation fell 0.6pp to 2.6% year- over-year in November...
- ...And core inflation excluding fresh food dipped to 2.3%, close to the BoJ’s 2% target.
- The downward revision to Japan’s final services PMI indicates slowing growth, despite robust tourism.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Korean trade is weaker than the headline export growth figure suggests
Duncan WrigleyChina+
The erratic Caixin PMI is more optimistic than the official gauge
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's erratic Caixin PMI rises
Korean exports are weaker than the headline figure
Japanese manufacturing falters
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The BoK left the policy rate unchanged last week; it raise d its 2024 inflation forecast.
- The Bank is likely to shift its focus to growth support in 2024 but delay the first rate cut until Q3.
- Korean export growth rose in November, largely thanks to base effects; trade is still bottoming out.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI is hit by falling demand
Duncan WrigleyChina+
China's manufacturing PMI is hit by falling demand; the BoK keeps rates on hold
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s November manufacturing PMI was hit by fading demand, while output continues to rise.
- But the weakness is mainly in materials processing, despite rising construction activity...
- ...Domestic demand for equipment and high-tech manufacturing is growing.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- The CNY has appreciated thanks to USD weakness but also a warmer tone in U.S.-China relations.
- The tech SME BSE index has soared almost 50% this month, aligning with China’s rebalancing theme.
- The developer “whitelist” is a crucial step on the long, bumpy path to resolving the property sector’s woes.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
Japanese manufacturing activity is hit by fading demand and production
Services activity is holding up, despite sagging new export orders
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- Japan’s core inflation barely moved in October, despite a rise in headline inflation...
- ...Driven by the partial roll-back of energy subsidies, soaring hotel costs and fresh food inflation.
- The fall in the November flash manufacturing PMI confirms Japan’s sluggish recovery.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s benchmark lending rates were unchanged in November, in line with the MLF rate last week.
- Policymakers are seemingly using fiscal stimulus to stabilise growth, thus allowing confidence to rebuild.
- Monetary policy will probably continue to play an accommodative role—behind fiscal policy—in 2024.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s residential market flagged again in October, despite the new homebuyer incentives since August.
- Developer funding shows little sign of turning around, as worries over debt issues are prevailing.
- The reported affordable-housing programme likely will fall short of the shantytown redevelopment boost.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China's lending rates on hold as fiscal policy takes the leading role
Duncan WrigleyChina+
- China’s domestic demand rose at a sluggish pace in October, while production grew faster.
- Upticks in retail sales of autos and mobile phones are bright spots.
- The PBoC injected RMB600B of MLF funds yesterday, enabling government-bond issuance.
Duncan WrigleyChina+
